CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[wbrocks67]

If we're talking about a <0.4% race then obviously it could go either way.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1328452663994880012?s=20

212 would be nice indeed!

[Torie]

If we're talking about a <0.4% race then obviously it could go either way.

Who knew? . Oh I see Wasserman just read my post. Ha! Actually it could be as high a margin as 2,000 either way, since we don't know how many provisionals and challenged ballots there are in addition to the remaining VBM projections required. Wasserman is still just doing crude guessing or channeling Rosenblatt. He's useless, at least to me. The reason I have some confidence in my projections is that I check the sheet of VBM's that were in on election day, and the partisan split, and then what the actual count was. The actual count is pretty close to the election day number with late VBM's cancelling out blank votes for the two candidates. Brindisi then gets everything not Pub/Con, plus about 20% of the Pub/Con vote, but that varies from 10% to 25%.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/TraversWDSU/status/1328443269576077318

[2016]

https://twitter.com/TraversWDSU/status/1328443269576077318

Not surprised by it! Richmond was with Joe Biden from the beginning and he would just be a backbencher in the House.

[Roll Roons]

McAdams concedes:
https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/11/16/21569764/rep-ben-mcadams-is-conceding-to-burgess-owens-in-close-4th-district-race

[Horus]

https://twitter.com/TraversWDSU/status/1328443269576077318

Anh Cao should make a comeback.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1328452663994880012?s=20

212 would be nice indeed!

Would look like this :

[2016]

McAdams concedes:
https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/11/16/21569764/rep-ben-mcadams-is-conceding-to-burgess-owens-in-close-4th-district-race

Chalk up another Official House Win for Republicans!

[Horus]

McAdams concedes:
https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/11/16/21569764/rep-ben-mcadams-is-conceding-to-burgess-owens-in-close-4th-district-race

Chalk up another Official House Win for Republicans!

MTG will no longer be all alone in the Q caucus. Victory!

[Tekken_Guy]

McAdams concedes:
https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/11/16/21569764/rep-ben-mcadams-is-conceding-to-burgess-owens-in-close-4th-district-race

Chalk up another Official House Win for Republicans!

Boebert?

[2016]

With Richmond resigning to take a Job in the Biden Administration Pelosi would have only 222 Seats meaning if 6 Democrats bolt passing Legislation could be complicated. They all said they want to repeal the Trump Tax Cuts. I would be curious how many D's in Swing Districts would do that in the middle of a Pandemic!

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

https://twitter.com/WKTV/status/1328476855549251586

More reporting from NY-22. The text of the article has not been updated to reflect the new headline yet, but manually going through and tallying gives a current margin of Tenney +5145.

https://twitter.com/JRosenblattTV/status/1328479657939832836/photo/1

Additional Broome County votes not included above cut margin to Tenney +4764. I believe these are provisionals?

[2016]

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1328474224613273602

Strange that they refusing to call NY-11 (Max Rose already conceded to Nicole Malliotakis) or NY-24 (Dana Balter conceded already to Rep. John Katko).

[100% pro-life no matter what]

https://twitter.com/TraversWDSU/status/1328443269576077318

Not surprised by it! Richmond was with Joe Biden from the beginning and he would just be a backbencher in the House.

Republican odds to win the 2021 Congressional Baseball Game would go way up

[Storr]

McAdams concedes:
https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/11/16/21569764/rep-ben-mcadams-is-conceding-to-burgess-owens-in-close-4th-district-race

Not gonna lie, he's the freshman I'm most upset about losing (almost all of the rest were in very unfavorable districts to begin with or were generally bland forgettable people like Cisneros or Shalala), especially to someone as loony as Owens.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1328478197135060994

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1328478197135060994

Provisionals will be the moment of truth in this race.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1328478197135060994

Provisionals will be the moment of truth in this race.

To be honest with you I am focusing more on the Races we have a real shot at winning. Next should be CA-21

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/JRosenblattTV/status/1328487048702013442

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

https://twitter.com/JRosenblattTV/status/1328487048702013442

That's way more then what he needs right?

[Gracile]

Lake County, IL dropped some more of its ballots today and here are how they impacted IL-06/IL-10/IL-14 districtwide:

Sean Casten (D-inc) 211,791 (52.78%) / +289
Jeanne Ives (R) 182,476 (45.47%) / +160
Bill Redpath (L) 7,006 (1.75%) / +4

Brad Schneider (D-inc) 199,458 (63.83%) / +2,242
Valerie Mukherjee (R) 113,006 (36.17%) / +715

Lauren Underwood (D-inc) 200,976 (50.60%) / +338
Jim Oberweis (R) 196,215 (49.40%) / +181

[2016]

https://twitter.com/JRosenblattTV/status/1328487048702013442

That's way more then what he needs right?

Depends on what's left now! There can't be too much more left of Oneida IMO!

[n1240]

Oneida still has about 6600 absentee ballots left to count, although still a question as to where they are coming from within the county. Seems like the recent batch of votes from Oneida were from Utica though considering the margin. Chenango then has 3500 left to count.

Brindisi probably nets around 1400 from Chenango, but then trying to estimate Oneida is difficult considering rural Oneida may be relatively unfavorable to Brindisi. Realistically the margin in Oneida on remaining votes will probably be between 35-50% (unless a good portion of . Assuming there is a reasonable amount of provisionals to count as well, along with considering the provisionals in Broome, I'd think that Brindisi would want to win by around 42% on remaining Oneida absentees to be comfortable in his chances of taking a very narrow lead.

[bandg]

An update on NY-22. So it looks like every county has finished up their absentee ballots today, except for Chenango and Oneida. Tenney leads by 4,671 votes.

Chenango has 4500 absentee ballots to count: https://www.evesun.com/news/stories/2020-11-12/33924/Chenango-County-starts-counting-mail-in-ballots-as-election-monitors-review-them

Oneida has 5559 left to count: https://cnycentral.com/news/local/tenneys-lead-over-brindisi-narrows-as-absentee-ballots-are-counted-in-ny-22

So ~10K ballots left. Assuming about ~5% go to 3rd parties or undervotes which is the trend so far, Brindisi needs to win the two-party vote by ~75-25 in order to tie. It does seem like the remaining Oneida ballots will be from the rural areas of the county. Chenango should also be relatively favorable to Tenney. It looks like it would be tough for Brindisi to take the lead on absentees alone.

But then we have various scattered provisionals and other ballots which may be more favorable to Brindisi. Altogether, still looks like a pure tossup to me, with maybe a very slight tilt towards Tenney.