CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

(Concerning Rouda, he won in 2018 only because he was facing a Putin apologist).

Nah.

Newsom lost the district 48/52

Rouda probably would have beaten generic R in 2018. He's a strong candidate for the area and Newsom is weak. Regardless, the district is essentially 50-50.

[Coastal Elitist]

(Concerning Rouda, he won in 2018 only because he was facing a Putin apologist).

Nah.

Newsom lost the district 48/52

Rouda probably would have beaten generic R in 2018. He's a strong candidate for the area and Newsom is weak. Regardless, the district is essentially 50-50.

Lol no this is a terrible take he's not a strong candidate at all. I was surprised more people didn't have this race on their radar as a potential flip. First off Rouda is from the most liberal part of the district in Laguna Beach and is way to liberal for the district. Also in 2016 Rouda won conservative Huntington Beach and lost even more conservative Newport Beach by only a few thousand votes so it's obvious that voters wanted to get rid of Rohrabacher. Against a generic R Huntington Beach would definitely flip back and the margin in Newport Beach would increase and both of those things happened with Steel. She's currently winning Huntington Beach by about 7,500 and Newport Beach by 8,500 and she outperformed Rohrabacher's numbers everywhere else including in Laguna Beach. She also flipped Fountain Valley, Garden Grove, Laguna Niguel and Seal Beach which are all places a generic R should win. I wasn't surprised at all that he lost.

[Left Wing]

When are we going to get an update on whether LA-05 will be a R v R or R v D runoff? It's been at 85% for a while now.

[Matty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1328386819495489538

[BudgieForce]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1328386819495489538

Not sure I agree. My bad math says he needs 68%.

[2016]

When are we going to get an update on whether LA-05 will be a R v R or R v D runoff? It's been at 85% for a while now.

CNN's Decision Desk has apparently determined that LA-5 Runoff will be between two Republicans hence they changed the Republican House Tally from 204 to 205.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/results/house

[Matty]

Predictit market swinging big to Tenney

[BudgieForce]

Predictit market swinging big to Tenney

Again, not sure why. While I think Tenny is still the favourite, Brindisi barely got what he needed in the last batch.

Although I guess it really depends on how many ballots are left. 18,000-23,000 seems like the consensus. If there are 23,000 ballots out, I'd say it's tilt D. If there are 18,000 ballots out then I'd say it's lean R.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1328412817146441735

[wbrocks67]

Should we be expecting another LA dump from CA-25 today?

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Should we be expecting another LA dump from CA-25 today?

The campaign has absolutely no idea as on this morning.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1328421142395228162

[Torie]

Calm down Wasserman. I know how bad you want it, but you don't always get the girl you want. Wasserman makes conclusory statements. I post spreadsheets! Your chose.  Before provisional and challenged ballots (the boy wonder reporter from Syracuse says 1500 provisionals and a "few hundred" challenged ballots in Broome), and with some data points to fill in, in lieu of the existing projections, and with a Chenango apparently anomaly, we have:



The last and allegedly final VBM vote dump in Broome was not that great for Brindisi actually, and it closed the gap a bit in the projected Brindisi final "margin" - again prior to the next round of vote tranches. Remember each vote tranche type has its own, and in NY this year, unknown partisan hue. Provisionals are not the same as challenged ballots, which are not the same as VBM's, which are not the same as election day votes, which are not the same as in person early votes. Any questions? I thought not.

[bandg]

Should we be expecting another LA dump from CA-25 today?

Tomorrow per their canvass schedule: https://lavote.net/docs/rrcc/election-info/11032020_canvass-update-schedule.pdf?

BTW, that vote counting schedule is absolutely ridiculous. They are counting votes only twice a week for FIVE weeks after the election?

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/repdonyoung/status/1328424294322479106

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/repdonyoung/status/1328424294322479106

Thank god.

[2016]

We may get some Vote Dumps regarding CA-21!

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1328223336481103875

Looking like the house will end up at 211/212 R so its really not that shocking what happened. There was still a degree of ticket splitting but overall Democrats and Biden carried the same number of districts.

[VAR]

Cheri Bustos tested positive for COVID-19:

https://twitter.com/RepCheri/status/1328428749336023040

[Xing]

Kean gains a bit from Morris, but not quite what he needs.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1328443384550318080

[KaiserDave]

These mere mortals declared me finished, but they know not the power of overseas New Jersey residents

Custom image, wikimedia commons image modified

[Roll Roons]

Provisionals will decide NJ-07 - not sure Wasserman is really accounting for those. And for the record, KaiserDave, Kean's father was basically the 80s equivalent of our man Phil.

[KaiserDave]

Provisionals will decide NJ-07. And for the record, KaiserDave, Kean's father was basically the 80s equivalent of our man Phil.

I'll do my research on Kean Sr. and Jr., but I'd probably still back Malinowski. I don't know Kean Jr.'s record well, and Malinowski seems well enough.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1328452663994880012?s=20

[Torie]

Here is some bad news for Wasserman and Rosenblatt. The problem with these boys is that they failed to notice that Broome had a relative turnout drop and that not all absentee voters cast votes in the NY-22 race. This is all prior to provisionals and challenged votes. It also includes obviously some cross checked projections for the counties that have not checked in with VBM's, but the projections  won't be off by much (not that it takes much to change who is ahead after the VBM round is done). You know this kind of stuff takes work guys.

Yeah, you can get 76%+ of the VBM pie and still lose. Sad!