CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[Torie]

If someone can fill in the blanks of late votes counted so far, I can do a projection assuming what has come so far is replicated. One consistent is the percentage increase in the vote with is about 122% of the 2018 vote in the Brindisi versus Tenney contest.



You can see where I am going with this. Cortland is done, and it was not good for Brindisi. He vis a vis 2018 has a 0.5% pad, and Cortland cut that all by itself down to 0.36%. But Broom was great for him, and added to his pad. Oneida seems close to a wash, but the projection is based on a lot more uncounted votes, and very "iffy."

[lfromnj]

Probably good for the GOP in 2022, i think if she survived Tenney might have beaten Katko in a primary .

[Roll Roons]

So if Brindisi wins, would NY-22 be the most Republican-leaning district held by a Dem?

[Smash255]

Source for Running House Tally

http://www.thegreenpapers.com

They have it at:

219 Democrats
205 Republicans
11 Race TBD (2 are Runoffs; GA-5 & LA-5)

The other 9 are as followed
California CD 21. Margin between top two vote getters: 1.4%, 2.2K votes.
California CD 25. Margin between top two vote getters: 0.031%, 104 votes.
Iowa CD 2. Margin between top two vote getters: 0.012%, 47 votes.
New York CD 1. Awaiting additional results.
New York CD 2. Awaiting additional results.
New York CD 3. Awaiting additional results.
New York CD 18. Awaiting additional results.
New York CD 19. Awaiting additional results.
New York CD 22. Awaiting additional results.

They also have UT-4 has undecided.  The GA-5 is the Special Election for the remaining few weeks of Lewis's term, not the General Election race.

[Frenchrepublican]

So if Brindisi wins, would NY-22 be the most Republican-leaning district held by a Dem?

By far

[Mr.Phips]

Probably good for the GOP in 2022, i think if she survived Tenney might have beaten Katko in a primary .

Dems can give Brindisi Syracuse to make him basically safe.

[lfromnj]

Probably good for the GOP in 2022, i think if she survived Tenney might have beaten Katko in a primary .

Dems can give Brindisi Syracuse to make him basically safe.

Yeah except now we have 2 unbeatable moderate hero titans facing each other. I think Katko beats Brindisi in 2022 though. A Syracuse based district would be like Clinton +0.5

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/MarkLeibovich/status/1327633773517803520

[Frenchrepublican]

Probably good for the GOP in 2022, i think if she survived Tenney might have beaten Katko in a primary .

Dems can give Brindisi Syracuse to make him basically safe.

Are you certain that they will got a super majority in the Senate ?

[lfromnj]

Probably good for the GOP in 2022, i think if she survived Tenney might have beaten Katko in a primary .

Dems can give Brindisi Syracuse to make him basically safe.

Are you certain that they will got a super majority in the Senate ?

A fair map gives him Syracuse anyway. Onondonga+Madison+Oneida is about 1 district in 2022.

[Mr.Phips]

Probably good for the GOP in 2022, i think if she survived Tenney might have beaten Katko in a primary .

Dems can give Brindisi Syracuse to make him basically safe.

Yeah except now we have 2 unbeatable moderate hero titans facing each other. I think Katko beats Brindisi in 2022 though. A Syracuse based district would be like Clinton +0.5

Dems can draw the seat so Katko is only left with his weakest areas and Brindisin his strongest.  Katko has never had to face somebody anywhere near as strong as Brindisi.

[Frenchrepublican]

Probably good for the GOP in 2022, i think if she survived Tenney might have beaten Katko in a primary .

Dems can give Brindisi Syracuse to make him basically safe.

Are you certain that they will got a super majority in the Senate ?

A fair map gives him Syracuse anyway. Onondonga+Madison+Oneida is about 1 district in 2022.

Yeah but a such district would not be more D leaning than the current NY-24 so Kakto would be okay

[Xing]

I could see a Guinta/Shea-Porter situation happen with Katko/Brindisi, depending on what the combined district looked like.

[wbrocks67]

Brindisi and Smith winning given all the other losses this year would be quite something lol

also why is the Delgado race not called yet either? (and Suozzi)

[Mr.Phips]

Probably good for the GOP in 2022, i think if she survived Tenney might have beaten Katko in a primary .

Dems can give Brindisi Syracuse to make him basically safe.

Are you certain that they will got a super majority in the Senate ?

Looks very likely.  State Senate is currently 40-23.  It currently looks like Dems will lose two seats (with an outside shot of losing just one) and gain four (with a decent shot at a fifth).  42-21 would give Dems a supermajority.

[2016]

Source for Running House Tally

http://www.thegreenpapers.com

They have it at:

219 Democrats
205 Republicans
11 Race TBD (2 are Runoffs; GA-5 & LA-5)

The other 9 are as followed
California CD 21. Margin between top two vote getters: 1.4%, 2.2K votes.
California CD 25. Margin between top two vote getters: 0.031%, 104 votes.
Iowa CD 2. Margin between top two vote getters: 0.012%, 47 votes.
New York CD 1. Awaiting additional results.
New York CD 2. Awaiting additional results.
New York CD 3. Awaiting additional results.
New York CD 18. Awaiting additional results.
New York CD 19. Awaiting additional results.
New York CD 22. Awaiting additional results.

They also have UT-4 has undecided.  The GA-5 is the Special Election for the remaining few weeks of Lewis's term, not the General Election race.

They do not have UT-4 as Undecided on their Frontpage and it isn't "undecided" from my Point of view. Owens has a 2,095 Vote-lead with only 3,000 Ballots left to count in Salt Lake County and also some in Utah County.

Republicans have flipped 12 Democratic-held House Seats:

https://twitter.com/RealKyleMorris/status/1327460473512611840

Barring a Vote Counting Error in IA-2 and a late Ballot Surge in CA-21 (both unlikely) we'll also pick up those two bringing it up to 14 Seats. We may lose CA-25 which would Result in a Net Gain of 13 Seats in the House.

My Final House Projection is 226-209.

[lfromnj]

Probably good for the GOP in 2022, i think if she survived Tenney might have beaten Katko in a primary .

Dems can give Brindisi Syracuse to make him basically safe.

Are you certain that they will got a super majority in the Senate ?

Looks very likely.  State Senate is currently 40-23.  It currently looks like Dems will lose two seats (with an outside shot of losing just one) and gain four (with a decent shot at a fifth).  42-21 would give Dems a supermajority.

However thats a bare super majority, a lot of infighting can happen especially with NYC vra seats and Manhattan. Biden really should appoint someone from NYC

[2016]

Wasserman thinks Brindisi may actually be slightly favored:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1327645312236871682

I am sick of Wasserman's spin tries tbh. Acting like Brindisis Win is going to save the Democratic House Majority in 2022 is just mood.

[Frenchrepublican]

Source for Running House Tally

http://www.thegreenpapers.com

They have it at:

219 Democrats
205 Republicans
11 Race TBD (2 are Runoffs; GA-5 & LA-5)

The other 9 are as followed
California CD 21. Margin between top two vote getters: 1.4%, 2.2K votes.
California CD 25. Margin between top two vote getters: 0.031%, 104 votes.
Iowa CD 2. Margin between top two vote getters: 0.012%, 47 votes.
New York CD 1. Awaiting additional results.
New York CD 2. Awaiting additional results.
New York CD 3. Awaiting additional results.
New York CD 18. Awaiting additional results.
New York CD 19. Awaiting additional results.
New York CD 22. Awaiting additional results.

They also have UT-4 has undecided.  The GA-5 is the Special Election for the remaining few weeks of Lewis's term, not the General Election race.

They do not have UT-4 as Undecided on their Frontpage and it isn't "undecided" from my Point of view. Owens has a 2,095 Vote-lead with only 3,000 Ballots left to count in Salt Lake County and also some in Utah County.

Republicans have flipped 12 Democratic-held House Seats:

https://twitter.com/RealKyleMorris/status/1327460473512611840

Barring a Vote Counting Error in IA-2 and a late Ballot Surge in CA-21 (both unlikely) we'll also pick up those two bringing it up to 14 Seats. We may lose CA-25 which would Result in a Net Gain of 13 Seats in the House.

My Final House Projection is 226-209.

You are forgetting the NY seats.

[Matty]

If the GOP fails to unseat Brindisi, then I think you can call the house elections overall successful for the dems. They kept CA25 and Ny22, and didn’t lose where they weren’t expected to

[wbrocks67]

If the GOP fails to unseat Brindisi, then I think you can call the house elections overall successful for the dems. They kept CA25 and Ny22, and didn’t lose where they weren’t expected to

True. Everywhere that flipped was always a possibility. I think NJ-07 would be the only one that truly no one saw coming, but that also appears to be more bc of Kean being an institution in that district.

[VAR]

If the GOP fails to unseat Brindisi, then I think you can call the house elections overall successful for the dems. They kept CA25 and Ny22, and didn’t lose where they weren’t expected to

Um, CA-21, CA-39, FL-27, and IA-01 were all major upsets. TX-24 too, actually.

Edit: TX-23 was very surprising too

[Roll Roons]

If the GOP fails to unseat Brindisi, then I think you can call the house elections overall successful for the dems. They kept CA25 and Ny22, and didn’t lose where they weren’t expected to

Um, CA-21, CA-39, FL-27, and IA-01 were all major upsets. TX-24 too, actually.

CA-21 was generally considered a tossup. And I'd say TX-23 was way more surprising than TX-24.

[VAR]

Suozzi ahead by 6,381 votes.

[Xing]

The House was only a success for Democrats in that they kept it. They underperformed across the board, with only a few Democrats like Brindisi overperforming expectations a bit.