CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[n1240]

Is there a good source of NY statewide updates? People seem to keep acting as if districts are close to finishing or something and every statewide source shows like nothing new being reported...

also RE: NJ-07, it looks like there is still a lot of remaining Dem vote out in Essex and Union...

NYTimes might post some occasional updates if certain data becomes available, they were pretty good at updating primary vote results actively during primary season. They have been a bit slow recently - have only updated two counties even though I've personally found 7 counties publicly posting results on their own county websites. The NY state BOE result page is absolutely useless after election night unless you want to use it as a reference point as to where the results were at the end of election night, the page will never update again.

The only realistic sources for "quick" updates are local media who are following close local races and actively contacting election boards and getting results before they actually post them to their website. Issue with these sources is that they're typically only interested in a few specific local races and may not report other local races (took me a while to find NY-22 results in Oswego County even though local reporters were reporting the NY-24 results for the county).

[n1240]

Can see why Rose conceded, needed to win these by upwards of around 60%+ to have a shot but he's only winning by 40%.

https://twitter.com/courtneycgross/status/1326939212751523843

[wbrocks67]

So where do things sit right now - is this the most likely outcome?

NY-01: Zeldin (R)
NY-02: Gordon (D)
NY-03: Suozzi (D)
NY-11: Malliotakis (R)
NY-18: Maloney (D)
NY-19: Delgado (D)
NY-22: Brindisi (D)
NY-24: Katko (R)

[VAR]

Yeah, what do we know about NY-02?

[Roll Roons]

Is there a good source of NY statewide updates? People seem to keep acting as if districts are close to finishing or something and every statewide source shows like nothing new being reported...

also RE: NJ-07, it looks like there is still a lot of remaining Dem vote out in Essex and Union...

Ok. You know how in PA, the mail-in vote has been skewed towards Biden even in deep-red rural counties? It's the same deal here in reverse. Even though Millburn and Union are the bluest parts of the district, Kean has been easily winning the late vote in both. Also Kean's State Senate district is mostly in Union, so he's been way outperforming there.

Then again, you thought Brian Fitzpatrick was DOA and he won by double digits.

[Roll Roons]

Yeah, what do we know about NY-02?

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1325852092582539266

[wbrocks67]

Is there a good source of NY statewide updates? People seem to keep acting as if districts are close to finishing or something and every statewide source shows like nothing new being reported...

also RE: NJ-07, it looks like there is still a lot of remaining Dem vote out in Essex and Union...

Ok. You know how in PA, the mail-in vote has been skewed towards Biden even in deep-red rural counties? It's the same deal here. Even though Millburn and Union are the bluest parts of the district, Kean has been easily winning the late vote in both. Also Kean's State Senate district is mostly in Union, so he's been way outperforming there.

Then again, you thought Brian Fitzpatrick was DOA and he won by double digits.

Cool, glad to see you can have a mature conversation without being a dick! Guess you've never been wrong before! Such a perfect human being!

[Torie]

https://www.syracuse.com/politics/2020/11/rep-anthony-brindisi-gains-ground-on-claudia-tenney-in-absentee-ballot-count.html

Pretty solid result in Tioga, seems like they're done counting. Very small portion of the district but Brindisi only lost by 6% despite losing by 11% in 2018. Could bode well for Broome, Brindisi can afford doing a bit worse than 2018 in the northern counties in the district if he can win Broome by a larger margin than 2018.

Oswego has an impressive swing from enight final results but Brindisi is on pace to underperform his 2018 margin by about 3% there.

Tioga and Cortland are done, and Brindisi got 19% of the Pub/Con ballots in Tioga and 15% in Cortland. Brindisi needs a 30% share to win. So far his only winning score is the partial count in Broome with a 37% share.

[Roll Roons]

Is there a good source of NY statewide updates? People seem to keep acting as if districts are close to finishing or something and every statewide source shows like nothing new being reported...

also RE: NJ-07, it looks like there is still a lot of remaining Dem vote out in Essex and Union...

Ok. You know how in PA, the mail-in vote has been skewed towards Biden even in deep-red rural counties? It's the same deal here. Even though Millburn and Union are the bluest parts of the district, Kean has been easily winning the late vote in both. Also Kean's State Senate district is mostly in Union, so he's been way outperforming there.

Then again, you thought Brian Fitzpatrick was DOA and he won by double digits.

Cool, glad to see you can have a mature conversation without being a dick! Guess you've never been wrong before! Such a perfect human being!

Alright, I'll admit that the last sentence was uncalled for. But the fact is that Kean has been doing well with late votes even in the blue parts of the district. He got 61% in Union's last vote dump.

[2016]

https://www.syracuse.com/politics/2020/11/rep-anthony-brindisi-gains-ground-on-claudia-tenney-in-absentee-ballot-count.html

Pretty solid result in Tioga, seems like they're done counting. Very small portion of the district but Brindisi only lost by 6% despite losing by 11% in 2018. Could bode well for Broome, Brindisi can afford doing a bit worse than 2018 in the northern counties in the district if he can win Broome by a larger margin than 2018.

Oswego has an impressive swing from enight final results but Brindisi is on pace to underperform his 2018 margin by about 3% there.

Tioga and Cortland are done, and Brindisi got 19% of the Pub/Con ballots in Tioga and 15% in Cortland. Brindisi needs a 30% share to win. So far his only winning score is the partial count in Broome with a 37% share.

I think Tenney is still favored to win here. The Syracuse Article from yesterday stated that Brindisi would need to win 80 % of the remaining Absentees to win and I don't think he'll do that!

[2016]

Honest UT-4 Analysis why McAdams will likely lose and Burgess Owens is likely the new Congressman-elect

https://twitter.com/RobertGehrke/status/1327131947160776704

[Roll Roons]

Imagine a delegation made up of Mitt Romney, Blake Moore and John Curtis on one hand, along with Mike Lee, Chris Stewart and Burgess Owens on the other.

[lfromnj]

https://www.syracuse.com/politics/2020/11/rep-anthony-brindisi-gains-ground-on-claudia-tenney-in-absentee-ballot-count.html

Pretty solid result in Tioga, seems like they're done counting. Very small portion of the district but Brindisi only lost by 6% despite losing by 11% in 2018. Could bode well for Broome, Brindisi can afford doing a bit worse than 2018 in the northern counties in the district if he can win Broome by a larger margin than 2018.

Oswego has an impressive swing from enight final results but Brindisi is on pace to underperform his 2018 margin by about 3% there.

Tioga and Cortland are done, and Brindisi got 19% of the Pub/Con ballots in Tioga and 15% in Cortland. Brindisi needs a 30% share to win. So far his only winning score is the partial count in Broome with a 37% share.

I think Tenney is still favored to win here. The Syracuse Article from yesterday stated that Brindisi would need to win 80 % of the remaining Absentees to win and I don't think he'll do that!

Except he is?

[2016]

https://www.syracuse.com/politics/2020/11/rep-anthony-brindisi-gains-ground-on-claudia-tenney-in-absentee-ballot-count.html

Pretty solid result in Tioga, seems like they're done counting. Very small portion of the district but Brindisi only lost by 6% despite losing by 11% in 2018. Could bode well for Broome, Brindisi can afford doing a bit worse than 2018 in the northern counties in the district if he can win Broome by a larger margin than 2018.

Oswego has an impressive swing from enight final results but Brindisi is on pace to underperform his 2018 margin by about 3% there.

Tioga and Cortland are done, and Brindisi got 19% of the Pub/Con ballots in Tioga and 15% in Cortland. Brindisi needs a 30% share to win. So far his only winning score is the partial count in Broome with a 37% share.

I think Tenney is still favored to win here. The Syracuse Article from yesterday stated that Brindisi would need to win 80 % of the remaining Absentees to win and I don't think he'll do that!

Except he is?

From the Article:

Brindisi still has a difficult path to victory. He would have to win almost 80% of the more than 52,000 absentee ballots sent in by voters in the eight-county district.

Enough said!

[wbrocks67]

https://www.syracuse.com/politics/2020/11/rep-anthony-brindisi-gains-ground-on-claudia-tenney-in-absentee-ballot-count.html

Pretty solid result in Tioga, seems like they're done counting. Very small portion of the district but Brindisi only lost by 6% despite losing by 11% in 2018. Could bode well for Broome, Brindisi can afford doing a bit worse than 2018 in the northern counties in the district if he can win Broome by a larger margin than 2018.

Oswego has an impressive swing from enight final results but Brindisi is on pace to underperform his 2018 margin by about 3% there.

Tioga and Cortland are done, and Brindisi got 19% of the Pub/Con ballots in Tioga and 15% in Cortland. Brindisi needs a 30% share to win. So far his only winning score is the partial count in Broome with a 37% share.

I think Tenney is still favored to win here. The Syracuse Article from yesterday stated that Brindisi would need to win 80 % of the remaining Absentees to win and I don't think he'll do that!

Except he is?

From the Article:

Brindisi still has a difficult path to victory. He would have to win almost 80% of the more than 52,000 absentee ballots sent in by voters in the eight-county district.

Enough said!

What have they broken so far? I would expect in NY of all places that 80% for the mail ballots could be attainable?

[2016]

https://www.syracuse.com/politics/2020/11/rep-anthony-brindisi-gains-ground-on-claudia-tenney-in-absentee-ballot-count.html

Pretty solid result in Tioga, seems like they're done counting. Very small portion of the district but Brindisi only lost by 6% despite losing by 11% in 2018. Could bode well for Broome, Brindisi can afford doing a bit worse than 2018 in the northern counties in the district if he can win Broome by a larger margin than 2018.

Oswego has an impressive swing from enight final results but Brindisi is on pace to underperform his 2018 margin by about 3% there.

Tioga and Cortland are done, and Brindisi got 19% of the Pub/Con ballots in Tioga and 15% in Cortland. Brindisi needs a 30% share to win. So far his only winning score is the partial count in Broome with a 37% share.

I think Tenney is still favored to win here. The Syracuse Article from yesterday stated that Brindisi would need to win 80 % of the remaining Absentees to win and I don't think he'll do that!

Except he is?

From the Article:

Brindisi still has a difficult path to victory. He would have to win almost 80% of the more than 52,000 absentee ballots sent in by voters in the eight-county district.

Enough said!

What have they broken so far? I would expect in NY of all places that 80% for the mail ballots could be attainable?

Disagreeing with you! That might be the case in New York City but not in Upstate NY!

[Torie]

https://www.syracuse.com/politics/2020/11/rep-anthony-brindisi-gains-ground-on-claudia-tenney-in-absentee-ballot-count.html

Pretty solid result in Tioga, seems like they're done counting. Very small portion of the district but Brindisi only lost by 6% despite losing by 11% in 2018. Could bode well for Broome, Brindisi can afford doing a bit worse than 2018 in the northern counties in the district if he can win Broome by a larger margin than 2018.

Oswego has an impressive swing from enight final results but Brindisi is on pace to underperform his 2018 margin by about 3% there.

Tioga and Cortland are done, and Brindisi got 19% of the Pub/Con ballots in Tioga and 15% in Cortland. Brindisi needs a 30% share to win. So far his only winning score is the partial count in Broome with a 37% share.

I think Tenney is still favored to win here. The Syracuse Article from yesterday stated that Brindisi would need to win 80 % of the remaining Absentees to win and I don't think he'll do that!

Except he is?

Brindisi needs to get 30% to 35% of the Pub/Con registered vote of the absentees, and he has not been doing that except in Broome. Oneida (the other populated county) might tell the story one way or the other. Brindisi is from Oneida, so we shall see.

[2016]

Congresswoman-elect Michelle Park Steel on FOX NEWS

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjgiAnU-K1k&t=9s

I really like her Stuck to the Issues and didn't get caught up in all the National Rancor.

BTW, I like that Graphic from FOX that we have Sixteen newly elected GOP Women. That must be a Record in itself!

[KaiserDave]

https://www.syracuse.com/politics/2020/11/rep-anthony-brindisi-gains-ground-on-claudia-tenney-in-absentee-ballot-count.html

Pretty solid result in Tioga, seems like they're done counting. Very small portion of the district but Brindisi only lost by 6% despite losing by 11% in 2018. Could bode well for Broome, Brindisi can afford doing a bit worse than 2018 in the northern counties in the district if he can win Broome by a larger margin than 2018.

Oswego has an impressive swing from enight final results but Brindisi is on pace to underperform his 2018 margin by about 3% there.

Tioga and Cortland are done, and Brindisi got 19% of the Pub/Con ballots in Tioga and 15% in Cortland. Brindisi needs a 30% share to win. So far his only winning score is the partial count in Broome with a 37% share.

I think Tenney is still favored to win here. The Syracuse Article from yesterday stated that Brindisi would need to win 80 % of the remaining Absentees to win and I don't think he'll do that!

Except he is?

From the Article:

Brindisi still has a difficult path to victory. He would have to win almost 80% of the more than 52,000 absentee ballots sent in by voters in the eight-county district.

Enough said!

What have they broken so far? I would expect in NY of all places that 80% for the mail ballots could be attainable?

Disagreeing with you! That might be the case in New York City but not in Upstate NY!

You're objectively incorrect

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

https://www.syracuse.com/politics/2020/11/rep-anthony-brindisi-gains-ground-on-claudia-tenney-in-absentee-ballot-count.html

Pretty solid result in Tioga, seems like they're done counting. Very small portion of the district but Brindisi only lost by 6% despite losing by 11% in 2018. Could bode well for Broome, Brindisi can afford doing a bit worse than 2018 in the northern counties in the district if he can win Broome by a larger margin than 2018.

Oswego has an impressive swing from enight final results but Brindisi is on pace to underperform his 2018 margin by about 3% there.

Tioga and Cortland are done, and Brindisi got 19% of the Pub/Con ballots in Tioga and 15% in Cortland. Brindisi needs a 30% share to win. So far his only winning score is the partial count in Broome with a 37% share.

I think Tenney is still favored to win here. The Syracuse Article from yesterday stated that Brindisi would need to win 80 % of the remaining Absentees to win and I don't think he'll do that!

Except he is?

From the Article:

Brindisi still has a difficult path to victory. He would have to win almost 80% of the more than 52,000 absentee ballots sent in by voters in the eight-county district.

Enough said!

What have they broken so far? I would expect in NY of all places that 80% for the mail ballots could be attainable?

Disagreeing with you! That might be the case in New York City but not in Upstate NY!

You're objectively incorrect

Could I ask why? Is it just not such a dem focused mail in there?

[KaiserDave]

https://www.syracuse.com/politics/2020/11/rep-anthony-brindisi-gains-ground-on-claudia-tenney-in-absentee-ballot-count.html

Pretty solid result in Tioga, seems like they're done counting. Very small portion of the district but Brindisi only lost by 6% despite losing by 11% in 2018. Could bode well for Broome, Brindisi can afford doing a bit worse than 2018 in the northern counties in the district if he can win Broome by a larger margin than 2018.

Oswego has an impressive swing from enight final results but Brindisi is on pace to underperform his 2018 margin by about 3% there.

Tioga and Cortland are done, and Brindisi got 19% of the Pub/Con ballots in Tioga and 15% in Cortland. Brindisi needs a 30% share to win. So far his only winning score is the partial count in Broome with a 37% share.

I think Tenney is still favored to win here. The Syracuse Article from yesterday stated that Brindisi would need to win 80 % of the remaining Absentees to win and I don't think he'll do that!

Except he is?

From the Article:

Brindisi still has a difficult path to victory. He would have to win almost 80% of the more than 52,000 absentee ballots sent in by voters in the eight-county district.

Enough said!

What have they broken so far? I would expect in NY of all places that 80% for the mail ballots could be attainable?

Disagreeing with you! That might be the case in New York City but not in Upstate NY!

You're objectively incorrect

Could I ask why? Is it just not such a dem focused mail in there?

I'm unsure what you're asking. I was merely making the point that Brindisi is doing exactly what he needs with mail ins. Dominating with ~80%.

[LimoLiberal]

New Broome County absentees slightly better for Tenney, Brindisi still leads ~78-20 overall with them.

https://twitter.com/JRosenblattTV/status/1327293517819940865

[Torie]

There are some uncounted provisional ballots as well, that might give Malinowski say a 1,000 vote margin to pull a number out of my butt as a very wild guess.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

https://www.syracuse.com/politics/2020/11/rep-anthony-brindisi-gains-ground-on-claudia-tenney-in-absentee-ballot-count.html

Pretty solid result in Tioga, seems like they're done counting. Very small portion of the district but Brindisi only lost by 6% despite losing by 11% in 2018. Could bode well for Broome, Brindisi can afford doing a bit worse than 2018 in the northern counties in the district if he can win Broome by a larger margin than 2018.

Oswego has an impressive swing from enight final results but Brindisi is on pace to underperform his 2018 margin by about 3% there.

Tioga and Cortland are done, and Brindisi got 19% of the Pub/Con ballots in Tioga and 15% in Cortland. Brindisi needs a 30% share to win. So far his only winning score is the partial count in Broome with a 37% share.

I think Tenney is still favored to win here. The Syracuse Article from yesterday stated that Brindisi would need to win 80 % of the remaining Absentees to win and I don't think he'll do that!

Except he is?

From the Article:

Brindisi still has a difficult path to victory. He would have to win almost 80% of the more than 52,000 absentee ballots sent in by voters in the eight-county district.

Enough said!

What have they broken so far? I would expect in NY of all places that 80% for the mail ballots could be attainable?

Disagreeing with you! That might be the case in New York City but not in Upstate NY!

You're objectively incorrect

Could I ask why? Is it just not such a dem focused mail in there?

I'm unsure what you're asking. I was merely making the point that Brindisi is doing exactly what he needs with mail ins. Dominating with ~80%.

Oh, I thought the bolding was your work, so I got confused myself, my apologizes.

[Torie]

New Broome County absentees slightly better for Tenney, Brindisi still leads ~78-20 overall with them.

https://twitter.com/JRosenblattTV/status/1327293517819940865

ROSENBLATT leaves something to be desired as a reporter or whatever he is (other than a seeming cheer leader for Brindisi, which is OK because I don't like Tenney either, whatever). First, if the vote dump for the Town of Union is all of its absentees, then it has only about 11% of the absentees while it had 30% of the vote share of the county in the POTUS vote in 2016. And what is reported so far is only 36% of the absentees outstanding. (Binghamton had 19% of the vote share in 2016. Union Town is the largest municipality by population in the county, not the city). Something is weird here unless the municipality counts are partials. Rosenblatt of course cannot be bothered to enlighten us. The reporting on the Kean race in Jersey is infinitely better than this amateur hour performance.

In any event, this vote dump sucked for Brindisi. In a town that has a partisan lean that matches the county, in this dump, Brindisi only got 9% of the Pub/Con vote, not the 30%-35% he needs.

Oh yes, the city is not Philly - a Dem vote sink. Trump 2016 got 36.5% of its vote. He won the county by 2% in 2016.