CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[cinyc]

If you want to see what the vote in Alaska looks like so far, here are my interactive maps:

https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/state-maps/ak/ak-2020-ge

Click on Menu to change what's mapped.

Note that, as always, only the in-person election day vote is broken down by precinct on the default map. You'll have to click on U.S. Pres-->More-->By HD to see other vote types.

[2016]

CA-39

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1326691643278307328

I am starting to get downright ANGRY at these Media Outlets. Kim is still up 4K! Why can't they call this Race?

[Figueira]

How did dems do in that Kansas district that was freakishly close in special election in mid 2017?

Estes (R) won by 28.

I wonder how the district voted at the presidential level. I notice that Sedgwick County was closer than in 2016.

[jimrtex]

I think CNN has the most accurate House Map right now so I'll go with them from now on until everything is decided.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/results/house

DEMOCRATS 218
REPUBLICANS 203
14 Races Uncalled

For the purpose of this Exercise I'll give CA-25 (Garcia vs Smith; Too many LA County Ballots left),
IL-14 (Underwood vs Oberweis), NY-3 (Suozzi vs Santos), NY-18 (Maloney vs Farley); NY-19 (Delgado vs Van de Water) to the Democrats bringing them to 223.

I'll also give CA-39 (Cisneros vs Kim), CA-21 (Cox vs Valadao; Since Kings won't restart counting until Nov. 21 and is Valadao's stronghold Cox would need a lead heading into that count), IA-2 (Miller-Meeks vs Hart), LA-5 (Runoff between two Republicans), NY-24 (Katko vs Balter) and UT-4 (McAdams vs Owens) to the Republicans bringing them to 209.

Three Races I see as totally Jump Balls: NY-2 (Open; Garbarino vs Gordon); NY-11 (Rose vs Malliotakis) and NY-22 (Brindisi vs Tenney).

Best Case Scenario: Republicans win all 3 bringing them to 212-223 in the House.
Worst Case Scenatio: Republicans lose all 3 bringing them to 209-226 in the House.

Republicans would need to flip only 9 Seats to win House Control back in 2022 in a worst-case scenario.

Those “jump balls” should all go GOP.

Speaking of NY, you don't think the Dem candidate will win about 50% of the absentee ballots of registered Pubs and 100% of everything else? The total absentees might by as much as about 10% higher than the totals here, but that is about the max increase.

Assuming the second NY-11 is actually NY-3, there is a portion of the district in Queens.

I did not understand your question. Perhaps word it as an assertion on your part what you think might happen.

[jimrtex]

If you want to see what the vote in Alaska looks like so far, here are my interactive maps:

https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/state-maps/ak/ak-2020-ge

Click on Menu to change what's mapped.

Note that, as always, only the in-person election day vote is broken down by precinct on the default map. You'll have to click on U.S. Pres-->More-->By HD to see other vote types.

Are they counting the mail ballots in any systemic manner? By AD for example?

An ADN article suggested that they were.

I'm mostly interested in the Top 4 referendum.

[cinyc]

If you want to see what the vote in Alaska looks like so far, here are my interactive maps:

https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/state-maps/ak/ak-2020-ge

Click on Menu to change what's mapped.

Note that, as always, only the in-person election day vote is broken down by precinct on the default map. You'll have to click on U.S. Pres-->More-->By HD to see other vote types.

Are they counting the mail ballots in any systemic manner? By AD for example?

An ADN article suggested that they were.

I'm mostly interested in the Top 4 referendum.

They're largely trying to count a certain group of HDs up to a certain date at a time. I know what they were supposed to count yesterday, but the Anchorage office also got to a few other HDs. I don't know what they're counting today.

-All but about 500 of the early votes have been counted.
-Most of the Questioned vote is still out.
-About 3/5ths of the absentees are still out.

[Torie]

"Assuming the second NY-11 is actually NY-3, there is a portion of the district in Queens.

'I did not understand your question. Perhaps word it as an assertion on your part what you think might happen."

Yes indeed, NY-03 is blessed with a Queen component, but actually NY-11 = NY 02 (so many numbers, so little time to the old brain). The Queens are not going to vote en mass for a Pub who has lost absent a Queen revolt. Who knew?  

[Torie]

If you want to see what the vote in Alaska looks like so far, here are my interactive maps:

https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/state-maps/ak/ak-2020-ge

Click on Menu to change what's mapped.

Note that, as always, only the in-person election day vote is broken down by precinct on the default map. You'll have to click on U.S. Pres-->More-->By HD to see other vote types.

I am more interested with your Alaska obsession, the one state other than ND that has not yet been graced by my presence. I can understand being obsessed with upstate NY. That place is where ghosts are most at home.

[jimrtex]

If you want to see what the vote in Alaska looks like so far, here are my interactive maps:

https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/state-maps/ak/ak-2020-ge

Click on Menu to change what's mapped.

Note that, as always, only the in-person election day vote is broken down by precinct on the default map. You'll have to click on U.S. Pres-->More-->By HD to see other vote types.

Are they counting the mail ballots in any systemic manner? By AD for example?

An ADN article suggested that they were.

I'm mostly interested in the Top 4 referendum.

They're largely trying to count a certain group of HDs up to a certain date at a time. I know what they were supposed to count yesterday, but the Anchorage office also got to a few other HDs. I don't know what they're counting today.

-All but about 500 of the early votes have been counted.
-Most of the Questioned vote is still out.
-About 3/5ths of the absentees are still out.

I had recorded the number of votes cast by the late night dump on Tuesday and compared  it with the 5:00 PM (AKST) dump for today. There were several HD with 100's of more votes, bunches with no change, and some with several 1000 more.

Those with lots more (1500 to 4000) on Wednesday were HD-14, HD-16, HD-17, HD-28, HD-30, and HD-35.

Those with 100's more: HD-3, HD-4, HD-5, HD-6. HD-9, HD-13, HD-15, HD-23, HD-25, HD-32, HD-33, HD-35, HD-39, HD-40.

The other 21 had no change.

So it would appear that they didn't get to some of the outer Anchorage districts until Wednesday. I remembered that they do report absentee ballots.

Tuesday:  15, 16. 19, 20, 21, 23, 25
Wednesday: 14, 26, 27
Thursday?: 13, 17, 18, 22, 24, 28

It is possible that Fairbanks (1-6 and 9) and Mat-Su (7, 8, and 10-12) are using a different scheme.

Are the western districts for the Juneau office (Kenai and Kodiak) handled independently? The four Nome districts (37-40) have not counted any absentees yet.

I think Top 4 will narrowly pass (perhaps 1% or less).

Does Alaska ever display absentee ballots by precinct, or do you have to estimate that?

What is the status of Egrexit? Just talk?

[Annatar]

Looks like at least 52,157 ballots left, Kean down by 9,708, he needs to win the remaining ballots by 18.7% to win.

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1326894606064168966

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1326897424514895875

[VAR]

More from one of Atlas' favorite states:

https://twitter.com/CaroRCummings/status/1326891310146588672

[Roll Roons]

Looks like at least 52,157 ballots left, Kean down by 9,708, he needs to win the remaining ballots by 18.7% to win.

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1326894606064168966

I love how this guy transformed himself from a Bridgegate fixer to NJ's equivalent of Ralston.

[Roll Roons]

Update: Kean won 73% (!!!) of Hunterdon's latest drop, and there's still about 50K ballots uncounted.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/kean-gains-1100-votes-in-nj-7-now-trails-malinowski-by-8598/

[Torie]

Looks like at least 52,157 ballots left, Kean down by 9,708, he needs to win the remaining ballots by 18.7% to win.

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1326894606064168966

Is this counting done precinct by precinct or are the ballots in a county being tabulated randomly?  I ask because in the Union County vote dump of 2,293 votes, Kean got 80%, while the vote split in the county gave Kean only 44% - a measly little 36% increase in his vote share from what came before. Essex apparently only has one precinct, so there the issue is moot, but in that precinct's vote dump of 396, Kean got 56%, as compared to his previous vote share of 33.5%. That precinct has another 500 votes to count supposedly.

Morris seems a tad more "normal," with Kean getting a mere 10% better than his previous vote share
(63% as compared to 53%), as opposed to wildly higher shares in Union and Essex.

It looks like Pub vote fraud to me! Ha! Moving right along, with these crazed numbers, how are people projecting anything that has something to do with "science" rather than astrology?

[Annatar]

Kean now needs to win the remaining vote by 17.3% assuming there are 49,753 ballots left, could be more as 49,753 is a lower end estimate.

[Roll Roons]

Looks like at least 52,157 ballots left, Kean down by 9,708, he needs to win the remaining ballots by 18.7% to win.

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1326894606064168966

Is this counting done precinct by precinct or are the ballots in a county being tabulated randomly?  I ask because in the Union County vote dump of 2,293 votes, Kean got 80%, while the vote split in the county gave Kean only 44% - a measly little 36% increase in his vote share from what came before. Essex apparently only has one precinct, so there the issue is moot, but in that precinct's vote dump of 396, Kean got 56%, as compared to his previous vote share of 33.5%.

Morris seems a tad more "normal, with Kean getting a mere 10% better than his previous vote share
(63% as compared to 53%), as opposed to wildly higher shares in the Union and Essex.

It looks like Pub vote fraud to me! Ha! Moving right along, with these crazed numbers, how are people projecting anything that has something to do with "science" rather than astrology?

I think ballots are being counted in the order they were received.

[wbrocks67]

Kean now needs to win the remaining vote by 17.3% assuming there are 49,753 ballots left, could be more as 49,753 is a lower end estimate.

It appears that 50k is a *higher end* estimate:

"But the number could also experience a sudden drop, if a significant number of vote-by-mail voters who tracked their own ballots online also voted provisionally after being unable to verify that election officials had received their ballots.”

We also don't know the composite of what is left. We could still have more GOP-heavy batches left, or this could be a CO situation where we get thru the GOP-heavy batches to then have 50/50 or Dem-leaning batches rounding it out.

[Mr.Phips]

Kean now needs to win the remaining vote by 17.3% assuming there are 49,753 ballots left, could be more as 49,753 is a lower end estimate.

It appears that 50k is a *higher end* estimate:

"But the number could also experience a sudden drop, if a significant number of vote-by-mail voters who tracked their own ballots online also voted provisionally after being unable to verify that election officials had received their ballots.”

We also don't know the composite of what is left. We could still have more GOP-heavy batches left, or this could be a CO situation where we get thru the GOP-heavy batches to then have 50/50 or Dem-leaning batches.

Also, how many left are provisionals?  I really doubt the provisionals will be particularly Republican heavy.

[wbrocks67]

Kean now needs to win the remaining vote by 17.3% assuming there are 49,753 ballots left, could be more as 49,753 is a lower end estimate.

It appears that 50k is a *higher end* estimate:

"But the number could also experience a sudden drop, if a significant number of vote-by-mail voters who tracked their own ballots online also voted provisionally after being unable to verify that election officials had received their ballots.”

We also don't know the composite of what is left. We could still have more GOP-heavy batches left, or this could be a CO situation where we get thru the GOP-heavy batches to then have 50/50 or Dem-leaning batches.

Also, how many left are provisionals?  I really doubt the provisionals will be particularly Republican heavy.

Yep, it seems NJ is as bad as PA is with how many are left outstanding.

Also, given that NJ is already past 4 million votes statewide, I doubt there are 50K left in just this district. That would mean there is hundreds of thousands outstanding statewide, which seems... unlikely

[2016]

Kean now needs to win the remaining vote by 17.3% assuming there are 49,753 ballots left, could be more as 49,753 is a lower end estimate.

It appears that 50k is a *higher end* estimate:

"But the number could also experience a sudden drop, if a significant number of vote-by-mail voters who tracked their own ballots online also voted provisionally after being unable to verify that election officials had received their ballots.”

We also don't know the composite of what is left. We could still have more GOP-heavy batches left, or this could be a CO situation where we get thru the GOP-heavy batches to then have 50/50 or Dem-leaning batches.

Also, how many left are provisionals?  I really doubt the provisionals will be particularly Republican heavy.

Yep, it seems NJ is as bad as PA is with how many are left outstanding.

Also, given that NJ is already past 4 million votes statewide, I doubt there are 50K left in just this district. That would mean there is hundreds of thousands outstanding statewide, which seems... unlikely

I'm getting worried about New York State! How many Congressional Seats will Democrats STEAL there?

[KaiserDave]

Kean now needs to win the remaining vote by 17.3% assuming there are 49,753 ballots left, could be more as 49,753 is a lower end estimate.

It appears that 50k is a *higher end* estimate:

"But the number could also experience a sudden drop, if a significant number of vote-by-mail voters who tracked their own ballots online also voted provisionally after being unable to verify that election officials had received their ballots.”

We also don't know the composite of what is left. We could still have more GOP-heavy batches left, or this could be a CO situation where we get thru the GOP-heavy batches to then have 50/50 or Dem-leaning batches.

Also, how many left are provisionals?  I really doubt the provisionals will be particularly Republican heavy.

Yep, it seems NJ is as bad as PA is with how many are left outstanding.

Also, given that NJ is already past 4 million votes statewide, I doubt there are 50K left in just this district. That would mean there is hundreds of thousands outstanding statewide, which seems... unlikely

I'm getting worried about New York State! How many Congressional Seats will Democrats STEAL there?

shuttttt upppppppp pleeeasseee

[2016]

UT-4 Update from yesterday

https://twitter.com/GlenMillsABC4/status/1326662878552854529

By my calculations there are only 11,533 Votes outstanding in SLC. Barring a Major favorable drop for Ben McAdams today in SLC Owens has this. McAdams would need 56-57 % of the remaining 11,533 Votes to pass Owens.

[7,052,770]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1326662964032778241?s=19

By Republican arguments, the late votes are fake and it's suspicious if they favor one party, therefore I claim Democratic victory in all of the seats.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1326662964032778241?s=19

By Republican arguments, the late votes are fake and it's suspicious if they favor one party, therefore I claim Democratic victory in all of the seats.

Ha ha, so funny, so unique.