CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[Young Conservative]

not congressional but the GOP flipped its first statewide race in PA in decades. Stacy Garrity defeated Incumbent Treasurer Joe Torsella.

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/pennsylvania-treasurer-joe-torsella-loses-republican-stacy-garrity-20201110.html

[2016]

NJ-07
Malinowski (D, inc.) 193,138 (51.66%)
Kean Jr. (R) 180,713 (48.34%)

Kean will win and it won't be particularly close.

You think he pulls this off? I am not so sure. It's still a rather big 13K Votes to make up.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

not congressional but the GOP flipped its first statewide race in PA in decades. Stacy Garrity defeated Incumbent Treasurer Joe Torsella.

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/pennsylvania-treasurer-joe-torsella-loses-republican-stacy-garrity-20201110.html

Republicans won two of the three row offices, and held Shapiro to under a five point margin in a Presidential year, while also winning the cumulative house vote (Democrats won this by 10% in 2018).

For all those that took issue with my emphasizing just how close PA is now and how much it has trended Republican in the last few years, these results certainly back up what I was saying.

[zorkpolitics]

[/quote]
Trump was the most business-friendly President in a very long time. People, especially those who own Small Businesses are incredible scared about Biden/Harris Regulations Presidency. I had conversations with even a lot of registered Democrats in my State who absolutely HATED TRUMP but were incredible scared about another economic shutdown.

Shutting down the Economy, Raising Taxes during a Pandemic is not what they want. I can tell you this: The gastronomical sector as well as the restaurants sector would not survive another Shutdown like we had in March. Thousands of jobs would be lost if the Economy gets shut down again.
[/quote]


Are you willing to go and work in this COVID infested outdoors? Also if you get sick, why should the government be expected to cover the cost of your hospital visit, if you intentionally put yourself at risk? The people who want to reopen need to put up or shut up, because this is getting annoying.

If you aren't willing to do this, then why should other people do it?
[/quote]

Fear of Covid is way overblown.  Covid: currently 3 out of every 1000 in NJ are infected, so your chance or mine of getting infected is minimal if we don't interact with 1000 people.  Even if you get infected 99.7% of people recover.
Finally once the vaccine is available Covid will disappear into the background of diseases, like flu.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

lmao..

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1326292464836079616?s=19

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

lmao..

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1326292464836079616?s=19

Yay! 2020!

[n1240]

Underwood takes lead in Lake County, districtwide lead up to 1600 or so assuming no other votes from other counties.

Who is favored to win IA-02 in your opinion?

If the largest counties have a number of postmarked absentees to add then I think Hart might have an edge, but I'm not really sure if they do. The number of absentees outstanding are probably in the magnitude of hundreds though.

NJ-07
Malinowski (D, inc.) 193,138 (51.66%)
Kean Jr. (R) 180,713 (48.34%)

Kean will win and it won't be particularly close.

Do you have an estimate of how many ballots there are outstanding that makes you this confident? I think there is a real chance Kean wins at this point but it's dependent on number of ballots, particularly provisionals. Late vote dumps have been terrible for Malinowski though, losing last two batches of Union County votes by 11% (around 25% swing).

[Tekken_Guy]

NJ-07
Malinowski (D, inc.) 193,138 (51.66%)
Kean Jr. (R) 180,713 (48.34%)

Kean will win and it won't be particularly close.

You think he pulls this off? I am not so sure. It's still a rather big 13K Votes to make up.

Hunterdon and Somerset are almost all in, and Kean is not getting the numbers he needs to win. Kean is winning Hunterdon by a smaller margin than Trump did in 2016 and Malinowski is running slightly ahead of Clinton in the Somerset County portion of the district.

[n1240]

Terrible SLC batch for McAdams, Owens wins 10164-9128, seems like Owens is on path to victory at this point.

[2016]

Underwood takes lead in Lake County, districtwide lead up to 1600 or so assuming no other votes from other counties.

Who is favored to win IA-02 in your opinion?

If the largest counties have a number of postmarked absentees to add then I think Hart might have an edge, but I'm not really sure if they do. The number of absentees outstanding are probably in the magnitude of hundreds though.

Iowa is already canvassing and Absentee/Military Ballots will be included in this. According to the Iowa SoS Election Reporting System 72 of Iowas 99 Counties have aready canvanssed. Miller-Meeks leads by 40 Votes at the moment see here:
https://electionresults.iowa.gov/IA/106279/web.264614/#/summary
Canvass has to be completed by Thursday Evening under Iowa Elections Law I believe!

[2016]

Terrible SLC batch for McAdams, Owens wins 10164-9128, seems like Owens is on path to victory at this point.

YEEEEEEEESSSSS!

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1326299900707917824?s=19

[2016]

@Ancestal,
I firmly believe Kim vs Cisneros might be called tonight. There isn't too much left in LA County. Only 2 % of Registered Voters in CA-39 live in LA County
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1326257018965913601

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1326299900707917824?s=19

The Fresno portion is slightly to the right of the district as a whole btw.

at around Clinton +11

[Tekken_Guy]

Terrible SLC batch for McAdams, Owens wins 10164-9128, seems like Owens is on path to victory at this point.

Why are the last ballots so GOP-friendly here? This goes against conventional wisdom here.

[2016]

Terrible SLC batch for McAdams, Owens wins 10164-9128, seems like Owens is on path to victory at this point.

Why are the last ballots so GOP-friendly here? This goes against conventional wisdom here.

REASON: COVID-19 Pandemic!

[kwabbit]

Any news on CA-25? It'd be weird if this is the one Republicans lost in Southern California given their other successes, but Smith seems to have the upper hand. I know that Ventura County isn't completely in, but I don't think Garcia has a 1300 vote gain there.

On a separate note, is CA-34 included in the 218 for Democrats? The race isn't called, but it's two Democrats against each other.

[Tekken_Guy]

Terrible SLC batch for McAdams, Owens wins 10164-9128, seems like Owens is on path to victory at this point.

Why are the last ballots so GOP-friendly here? This goes against conventional wisdom here.

REASON: COVID-19 Pandemic!

That makes no sense. The pandemic is nationwide. If late-counted votes are trending in Biden's direction in most swing states, then surely they'd be moving in McAdams' direction here. What happened?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Terrible SLC batch for McAdams, Owens wins 10164-9128, seems like Owens is on path to victory at this point.

YEEEEEEEESSSSS!

Good to know you support QAnon

[n1240]

Terrible SLC batch for McAdams, Owens wins 10164-9128, seems like Owens is on path to victory at this point.

Why are the last ballots so GOP-friendly here? This goes against conventional wisdom here.

It's not necessarily against conventional wisdom - this is a different election and states that conduct their elections mostly through VBM have consistently shown GOP doing better in late mail counts (AZ, CA, WA, NJ), whereas states that are predominately in-person voting show Dems consistently doing very strong among mail-in voters (PA, WI, MI, soon to be NY). It's a bit of a factor of Dems being quicker to send in their ballots, while Republicans generally sent them in at a steady rate.

[2016]

Terrible SLC batch for McAdams, Owens wins 10164-9128, seems like Owens is on path to victory at this point.

Why are the last ballots so GOP-friendly here? This goes against conventional wisdom here.

It's not necessarily against conventional wisdom - this is a different election and states that conduct their elections mostly through VBM have consistently shown GOP doing better in late mail counts (AZ, CA, WA, NJ), whereas states that are predominately in-person voting show Dems consistently doing very strong among mail-in voters (PA, WI, MI, soon to be NY). It's a bit of a factor of Dems being quicker to send in their ballots, while Republicans generally sent them in at a steady rate.

Well done I couldn't have explained it any better!

[2016]

Terrible SLC batch for McAdams, Owens wins 10164-9128, seems like Owens is on path to victory at this point.

YEEEEEEEESSSSS!

Good to know you support QAnon

Hilarious! Burgess Owens does not support QAnon Theory! What the hell are u smoking here?

[Tekken_Guy]

Terrible SLC batch for McAdams, Owens wins 10164-9128, seems like Owens is on path to victory at this point.

Why are the last ballots so GOP-friendly here? This goes against conventional wisdom here.

It's not necessarily against conventional wisdom - this is a different election and states that conduct their elections mostly through VBM have consistently shown GOP doing better in late mail counts (AZ, CA, WA, NJ), whereas states that are predominately in-person voting show Dems consistently doing very strong among mail-in voters (PA, WI, MI, soon to be NY). It's a bit of a factor of Dems being quicker to send in their ballots, while Republicans generally sent them in at a steady rate.

CA seems pretty weird, in that regard. Steel and Kim have pulled away with the late ballots but Valadao and Garcia seem to have stalled. Is there something different between the two pairs of races?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Any news on CA-25? It'd be weird if this is the one Republicans lost in Southern California given their other successes, but Smith seems to have the upper hand. I know that Ventura County isn't completely in, but I don't think Garcia has a 1300 vote gain there.

On a separate note, is CA-34 included in the 218 for Democrats? The race isn't called, but it's two Democrats against each other.

I believe it is included

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1326309067007033344
Man we really need a bigger lead.