NYT/Siena - TX: Trump +4

[kwabbit]

Cohn should be given the benefit of the doubt here. He did miss in Texas in 2018, but given how intelligent and transparent NYT/Siena has been previously about methodology, I'd have to think they would've tried to resolve their SW polling issue.

Either way, it seems ridiculous to constantly criticize an A+ pollster because you don't like their results. And then turn around and use a 25 LV subsample of Collin County to disprove the rest of their poll.

The number of undecideds is still a big problem, and as for the Hispanic thing, I’ll believe it when I see it. Can I believe they’ve improved their methodology to deal with their problems with these voters and this state in particular? Sure. But we won’t know if they succeeded until next week.

Is the number of undecideds a big problem? It's 5% in this poll. 47 Trump, 43 Biden, 3% Jorgensen, 1% Someone Else, 1% No Vote for President. Oftentimes for NYT, the number of undecideds appears larger than it is because they don't include the Lib candidate in their press release but do in the survey. Even so, the relatively larger number of undecideds is a result of probabilistic weighting for likelihood to vote, where someone who says they are not likely to vote still has a 20% to vote. These people still do vote occasionally, and much more likely to be undecided.

Bottom line, this is empirically and factually a more accurate method than a hard cutoff LV screen and just because the larger number of undecideds makes users here uncomfortable doesn't mean the poll is inaccurate.

[wbrocks67]

Cohn should be given the benefit of the doubt here. He did miss in Texas in 2018, but given how intelligent and transparent NYT/Siena has been previously about methodology, I'd have to think they would've tried to resolve their SW polling issue.

Either way, it seems ridiculous to constantly criticize an A+ pollster because you don't like their results. And then turn around and use a 25 LV subsample of Collin County to disprove the rest of their poll.

Nate's rather defensive though. He should be owning the 2018 mistakes but also saying this could be a mistake too. Instead hes pointing to NV and AZ polls that are "good for Biden, so we're probably not wrong!!!"

[Sbane]

I just can't fathom how one can have 10% undecided when half the electorate has already voted!

[TopShelfGoal]

I just can't fathom how one can have 10% undecided when half the electorate has already voted!

Most of the undecideds are this point are likely not going to vote.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

This is garbage I don't care if it sounds hackish. Tx is most likely flipping and it probably is more then 1 point for Biden

[Gass3268]

I just can't fathom how one can have 10% undecided when half the electorate has already voted!

Only 5% are undecided. 3% say they'll vote for Jorgensen, 1% for "someone else," and 1% say they are leaving the Presidential question blank.

[Hammy]

oh, poor wbrocks67 and Alben Barkley.

Sad!!

Welp, told ya. Now wait for everyone to start dooming about *Texas*.

In b4 Wbrocks call it’s trash due to Hispanics

They were R 51-43 in 2018--Dems under-polled by 5, GOP percentage was right.  Biden 48-47 could easily be extrapolated from this.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

oh, poor wbrocks67 and Alben Barkley.

Sad!!

Welp, told ya. Now wait for everyone to start dooming about *Texas*.

In b4 Wbrocks call it’s trash due to Hispanics

They were R 51-43 in 2018--Dems under-polled by 5, GOP percentage was right.  Biden 48-47 could easily be extrapolated from this.

Or 50-47, dare I dream.

[super6646]

SirWoodbury is nutting to these numbers rn

[It's not just that you are a crook senator]

This is actually not a bad poll for Biden, I don't know why people are pissed. RealClearPolitics average is at +3.2 for Trump right now. It was wrong by 3 points in 2016 and 4.2 in 2018. This is a pure tossup.

[VAR]

Welp, this thread aged badly

[Storebought]

Welp, this thread aged badly

This poll was pretty accurate. It's not the fault of the pollster that people refused to believe the result, despite not being named "Trafalgar".

[bandg]

NYT/Siena was also pretty awful this year. This is one of their better polls.

(error in parentheses)
AZ: Biden +6 (5)
FL: Biden +3 (6)
PA: Biden +6 (5)
WI: Biden +11 (10)
NC: Biden +3 (4)
MI: Biden +8 (5)
NV: Biden +6 (3)
TX: Trump +4 (2)
MT: Trump +6 (10)
IA: Biden +3 (11)
GA: Tie (0)
AK: Trump +6 (Incomplete)
SC: Trump +4 (
OH: Biden +1 (9)

Average error of 6 points, every poll except GA favoring Biden. The university pollsters seem to have done particularly bad this year.

[lfromnj]

Siena had some bad polls and lots of undecided but still better than most.

[ElectionsGuy]

These TX polls are about as reliable as IA polls, especially when they show Republican "strength" with nonwhite voters and a large number of undecideds.

10 recommends. People straight up ignored and didn't believe the signs that Trump was going to do better with Latinos. Hell, I'll admit I'm stunned with the degree he did better, but there were signs in the polling ALL YEAR which pointed to Trump improving his baseline with Hispanics, even as the same polls showed him losing in a landslide overall.

Not to mention, it was coming from NYT/Siena, which constantly had lofty poll results for Biden all year, and yet people here still refused to think Texas was a state leaning to Trump.

[BigSerg]

oh, poor wbrocks67 and Alben Barkley.

Sad!!

[jamestroll]

These TX polls are about as reliable as IA polls, especially when they show Republican "strength" with nonwhite voters and a large number of undecideds.

10 recommends. People straight up ignored and didn't believe the signs that Trump was going to do better with Latinos. Hell, I'll admit I'm stunned with the degree he did better, but there were signs in the polling ALL YEAR which pointed to Trump improving his baseline with Hispanics, even as the same polls showed him losing in a landslide overall.

Not to mention, it was coming from NYT/Siena, which constantly had lofty poll results for Biden all year, and yet people here still refused to think Texas was a state leaning to Trump.

Texas was my only missed state on Predictit. It was my biggest shock of the election. I honestly thought Biden would win it

[jamestroll]

You know what I actually think the Texas result was due to voter fraud by Abbott, etc.