NYT/Siena - TX: Trump +4

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1320772439882780672

[Lief 🗽]

Lmao straight in the garbage, Nate’s not even trying at this point!

[ExSky]

About expected but cmon man! How do you have 10% undecided WITH A WEEK LEFT Nate.

Also looks like these guys are also falling into the under polling of Latinos. It’s simply not going to be that weak for Joe. Clinton was +27 and Beto was +29. It’s the same reason NYT had Cruz +8 in October compared to the final result of +2.5.

[Skye]

Safe R, I guess.

[BigSerg]

oh, poor wbrocks67 and Alben Barkley.

Sad!!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Welp, told ya. Now wait for everyone to start dooming about *Texas*.

[Sestak]

JUNK IT!

Most predictable junk, too - Nate's strict LV screen is incapable of producing anything not garbage in a turnout scenario like what we have in TX.

[Buzz]

In b4 Wbrocks call it’s trash due to Hispanics

[Alben Barkley]

Hmm...

Perhaps surprisingly, the Hispanic voters likeliest to stay home are the Hispanic voters likeliest to support Mr. Trump. Or, if you prefer: Mr. Biden fares better among the Latino voters who say they will vote. Mr. Biden leads, 61-30, among Hispanic voters who say they’ve already voted or are “almost certain” to do so, while Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden are effectively tied among those who are less likely. Mr. Biden has an even wider lead of 73-20 among Hispanic voters who say they have already voted.

In any case, will certainly be ironic if old white voters in the suburbs are ready to vote D in Texas, but the state fails to flip because of Hispanics. I kinda doubt it will happen, but we'll see.

[Bootes Void]

Guys relax, Texas is a tilt R/swing state. It's all down to turnout for the Biden campaign to flip it

I'm also very skeptical of Nate Cohn's explanation

[Ferguson97]

In 2018
NYT/Siena
10/08-10/11
Cruz+8
Actual results: Cruz+2.6

NYT seems to underestimate Democrats, so while I'd prefer a tie or an outright lead, this is probably still a fine result for Biden.

Ridiculous amount of undecideds doesn't help for anyone's case though.

[Sestak]

Biden 57% among Hispanics and 78% among black voters.

Lyin' Loser Nate at at again!

[WD]

Hispanics are always underestimated in terms of their turnout and support for Dems. Tossup.

[Illini Moderate]

Dang, was hoping it would be closer, but it’s not like we need Texas whatsoever. Would be nice though

[Gass3268]

Horrific poll for Republicans!

https://twitter.com/senhorraposa/status/1320773648794398727?s=21

[WD]

Also, Biden at 78% with Black voters? lmao.

[kph14]

I believe the non-white shift towards Trump about as much as I believed Hurd and Valadao were winning by double digits in 2018. Polls fail to account for Democratic minority support again and again

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1320773046274347008

[ExSky]

In b4 Wbrocks call it’s trash due to Hispanics

Nate himself says it could be inaccurate due to missing Hispanics in the article lol.

[wbrocks67]

Much like the Gina Ortiz Jones and TX-SEN race in 2018, NYT/Siena remains incapable of properly polling TX.

If anyone honestly thinks Hegar is down 10 either, come on.

Funny how Nate does not reference how badly NYT/Siena did in TX in 2018 when they had Beto winning Hispanics by 19, only for him to go and win them by 29.

[Lief 🗽]

In 2018
NYT/Siena
10/08-10/11
Cruz+8
Actual results: Cruz+2.6

NYT seems to underestimate Democrats, so while I'd prefer a tie or an outright lead, this is probably still a fine result for Biden.

Ridiculous amount of undecideds doesn't help for anyone's case though.

Lyin’ Nate’s polls of Texas congressional districts were even worse, if you’ll believe it. He had Hurd winning in a landslide!

[MplsDem]

Here are the crosstabs if anyone is interested:
https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/tx102020-crosstabs-1/a1e2440aa9de6f2e/full.pdf

[ExSky]

Biden 57% among Hispanics and 78% among black voters.

Lyin' Loser Nate at at again!

At some point Nate has to start adjusting his Methods with numbers that simply will not be true.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

the toplines make sense, since I expect Biden is down by low single digits in the state presently. But the crosstabs don't make a lot of sense.

[wbrocks67]

Horrific poll for Republicans!

https://twitter.com/senhorraposa/status/1320773648794398727?s=21

Yeah, if there is a 13% shift in this electorate, there's no way the overall state is only moving 5.

[Dr. Frankenstein]

Horrific poll for Republicans

Was about to say. Trump is at 47. If this poll underestimates Hispanics, then Trump is in for a big surprise. Anyways, I can’t see Trump winning by more than 2 points given the latest polls.