2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[jimrtex]

Perusing the Certificates of Ascertainment that have been received by the National Archives

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020#certificates

I noted the following electors or elector candidates of note.

Georgia: Stacey Abrams (D)

Louisiana: Karen Carter Peterson (D-candidate), Woody Jenkins(R)

Michigan: Terry Lynn Land (R-candidate)

North Dakota: Heidi Heitkamp (D-candidate)

South Dakota: Kristi Noem(R), Larry Rhoden(R), Jason Ravnsborg(R)

Arizona: Kelli Ward (R-candidate), Barry Hess (L-candidate)

Alabama: Earl Hilliard, Jr. (D-candidate), he is Earl Hilliard's son.

Florida: Gwen Graham (D-candidate), Bill Nelson (D-candidate). Four write-in candidates had fewer popular votes than they had electors (29), with 9, 8, 2, and 1 popular votes. This may be the epitome of faithless elector.

Michigan: Ken Blackwell (R). Two candidates with fewer popular votes than electors (18 electors, 16 and 3 votes).

Pennsylvania: Lou Barletta (R-candidate)

Wisconsin: Tony Evers (D)

Wyoming: Milward Simpson (D-candidate), grandson of Milward Lee Simpson; nephew of Alan Kooi Simpson.

Montana: Thelma Baker (R), Googling, I found some very interesting stories.

Nebraska: Laura Ebke (L-candidate)

Tennessee: Tina Benkiser (R)

Idaho: Rod Beck(R), Raul Labrador(R)

Arkansas: Ed Bethune(R)

California: Pete McCloskey(D), Janine Bera(D), Shirley Weber(D)

New Jersey: Tammy Murphy(D).

New York: Bill Clinton(D), Hillary Clinton(D), Andrew Cuomo(D), Kathy Hochul(D), Thomas DiNapoli(D), Letitia James(D), Jay Jacobs(D), Carl Heastie(D), Christine Quinn(D).

Texas: Gene Seaman(R), Ken Mercer(R), Briscoe Cain(R), Nick Lampson(D-candidate), Terri Hodge(D-candidate), Katija Gruene(G-candidate)

Certificates of Ascertainment are signed by the Governor of each State, thus Noem (R-SD) and Evers (D-WI) signed their own certificates. Neither added a hand-written comment: "<---- That's ME !!!!!!"

Most prosaic certificate: Wyoming; Most grandiose: Massachusetts.

Nebraska gives the vote totals for each elector candidate, and then states that four Republicans and one Democrat electors have been notified by certified mail but does not actually list the individuals. I hope they sent the mail to the right electors.

Four pairs of Socialist Worker electors in Washington share an address, but not a last name.

Brock Pierce electors in Minnesota included Jeffrey Pierce, Kathleen Pierce, Mark Pierce,  Barbara Pierce, Deborah Pierce (imagine if he had been elected, we would have had two Adam's, two Johnson's, two Roosevelt's, two Harrison's, two Bush's, and two Pierce's.

Kasey Wells electors in Minnesota included three electors with the same name of Illegible. They don't include addresses, but I image they were: "No Such Address". Don Blankenship electors in Minnesota included a pair of Bruskis.

All 8 electors for Shawn Howard in Kentucky were also electors for Shawn Howard in Minnesota and Florida. The two other electors for Howard in Minnesota were also electors for Shawn Howard in Florida. Five of these were designated in Indiana. Since Indiana noted the town of elector candidates, it specifically notes that these electors were from New Jersey, New Jersey, Florida, Connecticut, and New York.

The governor of Nevada did not sign that state's certificate of ascertainment, but made a mark. The SOS countersigned it making it legal.

Kamei Harris was a Trump-Pence elector in New Jersey. She is a black woman. If she voted, K. Harris would vote against K. Harris.

Vermont had Grumpy Old Patriots, Boiling Frog, Bull Moose, and Bread and Roses candidates.

I did not recognize any electors for Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nevada, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, or District of Columbia. Anybody see any notables?

[jimrtex]

31/51 states have already submitted their certificates to the National Archives (+10 since yesterday).

They had not updated any since the 4th (perhaps USPS delays?)

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

jimrtex, another notable New York elector is teacher's union leader Rhonda "Randi" Weingarten.

The only Massachusetts elector I recognize is Nicole LaChapelle, the mayor of Easthampton in Hampshire County.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I literally don't recognize a single one of these names:

https://twitter.com/Stowydad/status/1334267803512287241

[Non Swing Voter]

The Michigan electors had their addresses posted on the certificate. Isn't that...a problem?

Seems like a problem in terms of them being harassed by crazy Trump cult terrorists. 

Electors are being harassed, threatened in bid to stop ...

“Somebody threatened to put a bullet in the back of my mouth,” Banerian, 22, told The Post on Wednesday.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

From 2016

wow you dug up an article.  Now back to the reality of the mass gathering of unhinged lunatics which is the modern GOP.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1336504395186442248

Probably a big part of the reason CO trended so hard to the left.

[South Dakota Democrat]

What was everyone's reaction on election night?

I would describe mine as "concerned, but not panicked."  While it was clear based on the way things unfolded that 2016 wasn't an outlier, I was hopeful that the right states swung just enough to give Biden the win.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1336504395186442248
Probably a big part of the reason CO trended so hard to the left.

It was widespread. #2 and #3 on the list are Fort Collins and Denver.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Colorado Springs metro also happens to include the Air Force Academy.

Probably helped the county shift.

[GALeftist]

Looks like Biden might have actually maybe won Ontario County, New York?

https://twitter.com/ff_ff8008ff_ff/status/1336463535577178119?s=20

I thought this was referring to Orange County, CA for a sec and was so confused.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1336504395186442248
Probably a big part of the reason CO trended so hard to the left.

It was widespread. #2 and #3 on the list are Fort Collins and Denver.

Colorado is one of the few states which seems to have met or exceeded everyone's expectations in this election. Maryland, Massachusetts, and Vermont are other examples.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1336504395186442248
Probably a big part of the reason CO trended so hard to the left.

It was widespread. #2 and #3 on the list are Fort Collins and Denver.

Colorado is one of the few states which seems to have met or exceeded everyone's expectations in this election. Maryland, Massachusetts, and Vermont are other examples.

Minnesota too.

[Non Swing Voter]

I actually think Biden exceeded expectations in a lot of states:

Colorado (+14), Minnesota (+7), New Hampshire (+7), Maine (+9), New Mexico (+11), Vermont (+35), Massachusetts (+34), Connecticut (+20), Maryland (+33), Georgia (+.3)

Alaska (-10), Louisiana (-18)

The main ones where he missed just happened to be heavily skewed toward battlegrounds:

Pennsylvania (+1), Wisconsin (+.5), Michigan (+3), Virginia (+10), Nevada (+2)

Florida (-3), Ohio (-8), Iowa (-8), Texas (-5), Montana (-16)

[Tender Branson]

States that have already sent their Certificates of Ascertainment to the National Archives:

31/51

224 EV - Biden
159 EV - Trump
155 EV - None
538 EV - Total

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020

[Tender Branson]

Hawaii actually only certified yesterday, because there were a few objections filed that the Supreme Court all dismissed:

https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-general-elections-elections-courts-hawaii-9cf787832a381f215e3d6a838d8ceab5

But with CA, CO, HI, ID and MO all done, the certification process is now complete.

The remaining 20 certificates should arrive at the National Archives until Monday.

[jimrtex]

The Michigan electors had their addresses posted on the certificate. Isn't that...a problem?

Seems like a problem in terms of them being harassed by crazy Trump cult terrorists. 

Electors are being harassed, threatened in bid to stop ...

“Somebody threatened to put a bullet in the back of my mouth,” Banerian, 22, told The Post on Wednesday.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

From 2016

wow you dug up an article.  Now back to the reality of the mass gathering of unhinged lunatics which is the modern GOP.

Remember the meeting of the three electors in Montana? Linda McCulloch the Secretary of State at the time decided she was chairwoman, and invited the members of the public to make speeches before the electors began their deliberation. A couple of old ladies spoke about Orange Man Bad and Russian Collusion. Then the Secretary of State said the electors should explain why they were voting for Trump.

Remember Larry Lessig, who had been a candidate for nomination by the Democrats, who offered to provide legal counsel to any faithless electors?

[Non Swing Voter]

The Michigan electors had their addresses posted on the certificate. Isn't that...a problem?

Seems like a problem in terms of them being harassed by crazy Trump cult terrorists. 

Electors are being harassed, threatened in bid to stop ...

“Somebody threatened to put a bullet in the back of my mouth,” Banerian, 22, told The Post on Wednesday.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

From 2016

wow you dug up an article.  Now back to the reality of the mass gathering of unhinged lunatics which is the modern GOP.

Remember the meeting of the three electors in Montana? Linda McCulloch the Secretary of State at the time decided she was chairwoman, and invited the members of the public to make speeches before the electors began their deliberation. A couple of old ladies spoke about Orange Man Bad and Russian Collusion. Then the Secretary of State said the electors should explain why they were voting for Trump.

Remember Larry Lessig, who had been a candidate for nomination by the Democrats, who offered to provide legal counsel to any faithless electors?

Remember the sick Trump fanatic who literally sent pipe bombs to Democratic politicians who your sick leader complained about?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I actually think Biden exceeded expectations in a lot of states:

Colorado (+14), Minnesota (+7), New Hampshire (+7), Maine (+9), New Mexico (+11), Vermont (+35), Massachusetts (+34), Connecticut (+20), Maryland (+33), Georgia (+.3)

Alaska (-10), Louisiana (-18)

The main ones where he missed just happened to be heavily skewed toward battlegrounds:

Pennsylvania (+1), Wisconsin (+.5), Michigan (+3), Virginia (+10), Nevada (+2)

Florida (-3), Ohio (-8), Iowa (-8), Texas (-5), Montana (-16)

This is a good point.

[wbrocks67]

I actually think Biden exceeded expectations in a lot of states:

Colorado (+14), Minnesota (+7), New Hampshire (+7), Maine (+9), New Mexico (+11), Vermont (+35), Massachusetts (+34), Connecticut (+20), Maryland (+33), Georgia (+.3)

Alaska (-10), Louisiana (-18)

The main ones where he missed just happened to be heavily skewed toward battlegrounds:

Pennsylvania (+1), Wisconsin (+.5), Michigan (+3), Virginia (+10), Nevada (+2)

Florida (-3), Ohio (-8), Iowa (-8), Texas (-5), Montana (-16)

All things considered, I wouldn't even consider Michigan and Virginia 'misses'. They were both good results, especially compared to 2016, but our expectations based on polls were just a bit higher.

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

These results confuse me. If the largest states trended against Biden (some even swung against him like FL and IL), how did the Electoral/Popular Vote gap grow? Where did he gain votes?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

These results confuse me. If the largest states trended against Biden (some even swung against him like FL and IL), how did the Electoral/Popular Vote gap grow? Where did he gain votes?

Turnout, and for the gap trends don't matter but swings(because trends negate changes in the popular vote making it meaningless when assessing the popular). The California swing was minimal and he massilvey boosted turnout there increasing his national popular vote margin. He also got a lot of swings in deep red states that don't help him in the EC but boost his popular vote.

WV swung towards biden.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I can't believe I have to explain this to someone who's as manifestly capable of being measured and reasonable when he wants to be as jimrtex, but being intimidated by armed demonstrators showing up at your house after dark is categorically not the same as being spoken against by old ladies at a public meeting or having Lawrence Lessig offer to litigate against you.

[Sir Mohamed]

I actually think Biden exceeded expectations in a lot of states:

Colorado (+14), Minnesota (+7), New Hampshire (+7), Maine (+9), New Mexico (+11), Vermont (+35), Massachusetts (+34), Connecticut (+20), Maryland (+33), Georgia (+.3)

Alaska (-10), Louisiana (-18)

The main ones where he missed just happened to be heavily skewed toward battlegrounds:

Pennsylvania (+1), Wisconsin (+.5), Michigan (+3), Virginia (+10), Nevada (+2)

Florida (-3), Ohio (-8), Iowa (-8), Texas (-5), Montana (-16)

Good point, though +10 in VA isn't underperformance. Biden won by more than Northam did in 2017 and by about twice as much as HRC.

[American2020]

2020 US Presidential Election County Map

[Holmes]

2020 US Presidential Election County Map

Biden won Inyo county and lost Monongalia and Oklahoma counties.