2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[ProgressiveModerate]

Certified map. Will make a county map soon.

BTW, is this a good gradient for a county map?

I don't think there's anything wrong with the gradient, but not having outlines is a problem when you're trying to single out an individual county.

BTW, is that the 2000 Election?

Yep. good suggestion, I personally jkust don't like the lines because it makes the map look too busy IMO, but it is more practical to have the lines.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1334903673760182273

I was reading how the Fulton recount probably has a few errors, most notable a rather steep decline in the amount of provisional ballots listed. That probably explains the discrepancy between the audit and recount numbers. I wish they could double check, but I'd rather they just certify the damn thing so we can all move on with our lives. 

[Mike88]

Certified map. Will make a county map soon.

BTW, is this a good gradient for a county map?

I don't think there's anything wrong with the gradient, but not having outlines is a problem when you're trying to single out an individual county.

BTW, is that the 2000 Election?

Yep. good suggestion, I personally jkust don't like the lines because it makes the map look too busy IMO, but it is more practical to have the lines.

The lines could be smooth with a light gray or something, IMO.

[ProgressiveModerate]

County map thus far; started with a few certified southern states

[Gracile]

It's remarkable how similar the margin in IL has been in 2012, 2016, and 2020 despite the fact that our state has undergone some pretty huge internal political shifts in the past decade (rural Downstate IL generally becoming more Republican, suburban Chicagoland/mid-sized cities becoming more Democratic, etc.). It shows that margins only tell so much of a state's political story and that it is important to look at results from a county/precinct level as well.

[pbrower2a]

Meanwhile on another planet...

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5604

Number of traders on the contract is maxed out.

Gamblers who don't know what they are talking about except for their prospect of a longshot win. Optimistic fools. I would be selling.

[2016]

According to NBC here is what's left:

14,094 Votes from CA (Riverside County)
43,350 Votes from CO
95,936 Votes from MD
22,515 Votes from NY (Suffolk County; the current Totals per BOE Website are 381,253 Trump to 381,021 Biden...but there are not included in Edisons Vote Counting System)
6,895 Votes from ID
60,414 Votes from MO

[Mike88]

According to NBC here is what's left:

14,094 Votes from CA (Riverside County)
43,350 Votes from CO
95,936 Votes from MD
22,515 Votes from NY (Suffolk County; the current Totals per BOE Website are 381,253 Trump to 381,021 Biden...but there are not included in Edisons Vote Counting System)
6,895 Votes from ID
60,414 Votes from MO

So, using the Cook data and this data from NBC, the final turnout will be 158,629,080. 66.3% of the Voting-Eligible Population, and 61.6% of the Voting-Age Population.

Could still go up a bit the final data, of course.

[n1240]

According to NBC here is what's left:

14,094 Votes from CA (Riverside County)
43,350 Votes from CO
95,936 Votes from MD
22,515 Votes from NY (Suffolk County; the current Totals per BOE Website are 381,253 Trump to 381,021 Biden...but there are not included in Edisons Vote Counting System)
6,895 Votes from ID
60,414 Votes from MO

Edison vote remaining estimates are extremely garbage.

California is done (Riverside and San Joaquin added their ballots, so 0 left)
Every county by one in CO has certified, they haven't certified statewide yet because they were waiting on about 300 ballots in Gunnison.
Maryland is done
Idaho could technically have a few left
Most populated places in Missouri have certified their results so I have a hard time believing there will be that much from there

Edison also previously implied 300k left in OH but they only counted 150k, they also had a wildly incorrect estimate for NY before they certified (expected 8.9 mil votes when it'll be 8.6 mil).

Excluding Suffolk has has technically counted but some sources aren't including their results - there are probably less than 20k votes remaining

[VAR]

Biden won Mission Hills, KS by 39%. Clinton won it by a point in 2016. Also Romney +40

[Benjamin Frank]

Meanwhile on another planet...

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5604

Number of traders on the contract is maxed out.

Gamblers who don't know what they are talking about except for their prospect of a longshot win. Optimistic fools. I would be selling.

If you want to look into it, a similar thing happened on the Canadian Toronto Stock Exchange almost 25 years ago now with a company called Bre-X.  

They claimed to have found a large gold mining claim, but it turned out they salted the assay.  When the news of the fraud came out, the company collapsed but the stock still traded at about $0.85 share or something as some people believed the news was 'fake' and the gold strike was real.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bre-X

Interestingly, I owned shares in a similarly fraudulent company called Brie-X that falsely claimed to have made a large cheese mining strike.

[Bootes Void]

Biden won Mission Hills, KS by 39%. Clinton won it by a point in 2016. Also Romney +40

How did it vote for senate?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Biden won Mission Hills, KS by 39%. Clinton won it by a point in 2016. Also Romney +40

That's impressive.  Has anyplace else swung as much?

[VAR]

Biden won Mission Hills, KS by 39%. Clinton won it by a point in 2016. Also Romney +40
[/quote
How did it vote for senate?]

I don't know yet, but Bollier is from there.

[Badger]

Biden won Mission Hills, KS by 39%. Clinton won it by a point in 2016. Also Romney +40

That's impressive.  Has anyplace else swung as much?

 the author of what's the matter with Kansas should write an updated Edition.

[2016]

According to NBC here is what's left:

14,094 Votes from CA (Riverside County)
43,350 Votes from CO
95,936 Votes from MD
22,515 Votes from NY (Suffolk County; the current Totals per BOE Website are 381,253 Trump to 381,021 Biden...but there are not included in Edisons Vote Counting System)
6,895 Votes from ID
60,414 Votes from MO

Edison vote remaining estimates are extremely garbage.

California is done (Riverside and San Joaquin added their ballots, so 0 left)
Every county by one in CO has certified, they haven't certified statewide yet because they were waiting on about 300 ballots in Gunnison.
Maryland is done
Idaho could technically have a few left
Most populated places in Missouri have certified their results so I have a hard time believing there will be that much from there

Edison also previously implied 300k left in OH but they only counted 150k, they also had a wildly incorrect estimate for NY before they certified (expected 8.9 mil votes when it'll be 8.6 mil).

Excluding Suffolk has has technically counted but some sources aren't including their results - there are probably less than 20k votes remaining

Suffolk has now being included in their count hence the 0 VOTES remaining to count!

[Benjamin Frank]

Maryland posted their certified results on their website.

https://www.elections.maryland.gov/elections/2020/results/General/index.html

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/EmmaKinery/status/1335012291855724552

[forza nocta]

Thank you California, very cool!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Proud of my state for pushing Biden past 270.

[jimrtex]

Perusing the Certificates of Ascertainment that have been received by the National Archives

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020#certificates

I noted the following electors or elector candidates of note.

Georgia: Stacey Abrams (D)

Louisiana: Karen Carter Peterson (D-candidate), Woody Jenkins(R)

Michigan: Terry Lynn Land (R-candidate)

North Dakota: Heidi Heitkamp (D-candidate)

South Dakota: Kristi Noem(R), Larry Rhoden(R), Jason Ravnsborg(R)

Arizona: Kelli Ward (R-candidate), Barry Hess (L-candidate)

Alabama: Earl Hilliard, Jr. (D-candidate), he is Earl Hilliard's son.

Florida: Gwen Graham (D-candidate), Bill Nelson (D-candidate). Four write-in candidates had fewer popular votes than they had electors (29), with 9, 8, 2, and 1 popular votes. This may be the epitome of faithless elector.

Michigan: Ken Blackwell (R). Two candidates with fewer popular votes than electors (18 electors, 16 and 3 votes).

Pennsylvania: Lou Barletta (R-candidate)

Wisconsin: Tony Evers (D)

Wyoming: Milward Simpson (D-candidate), grandson of Milward Lee Simpson; nephew of Alan Kooi Simpson.

Montana: Thelma Baker (R), Googling, I found some very interesting stories.

Nebraska: Laura Ebke (L-candidate)

Tennessee: Tina Benkiser (R)

Idaho: Rod Beck(R), Raul Labrador(R)

Certificates of Ascertainment are signed by the Governor of each State, thus Noem (R-SD) and Evers (D-WI) signed their own certificates. Neither added a hand-written comment: "<---- That's ME !!!!!!"

Most prosaic certificate: Wyoming; Most grandiose: Massachusetts.

Nebraska gives the vote totals for each elector candidate, and then states that four Republicans and one Democrat electors have been notified by certified mail but does not actually list the individuals. I hope they sent the mail to the right electors.

Four pairs of Socialist Worker electors in Washington share an address, but not a last name.

Brock Pierce electors in Minnesota included Jeffrey Pierce, Kathleen Pierce, Mark Pierce,  Barbara Pierce, Deborah Pierce (imagine if he had been elected, we would have had two Adam's, two Johnson's, two Roosevelt's, two Harrison's, two Bush's, and two Pierce's.

Kasey Wells electors in Minnesota included three electors with the same name of Illegible. They don't include addresses, but I image they were: "No Such Address". Don Blankenship electors in Minnesota included a pair of Bruskis.

All 8 electors for Shawn Howard in Kentucky were also electors for Shawn Howard in Minnesota and Florida. The two other electors for Howard in Minnesota were also electors for Shawn Howard in Florida.

I did not recognize any electors for Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, or Washington. Anybody see any notables?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Biden won Mission Hills, KS by 39%. Clinton won it by a point in 2016. Also Romney +40

Does that make it the only place in the country where >50% of the electorate voted for both Romney and Biden?

[ProgressiveModerate]

County map thus far. Let me know if you see any errors

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

As frustrating and damaging to democratic norms as it is for Trump to not concede the election, getting to watch him lose over and over and over and over and over again has been quite the silver lining.

[Tender Branson]

CA has certified:

https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-elections-electoral-college-3e0b852c3cfadf853b08aecbfc3569fa

(According to the AP, Hawaii and West Virginia somehow have no official results yet - but that cannot be true.)

(According to Cook Political Report, California, Hawaii and Idaho have no official results - which is also not true because they already submitted their certificate to the National Archives ...)