2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[jimrtex]

NY Board of Elections needs to be nuked.

NYCBOE or NYSBOE?

[forza nocta]

NY Board of Elections needs to be nuked.

NYCBOE or NYSBOE?

[Benjamin Frank]

Being in Canada, these are the states that still don't report certified results for me on the official websites:

1.California
2.Colorado ( certified but 300 votes still to be processed due to a Covid outbreak)
3.Connecticut
4.Idaho
5.Maryland
6.Minnesota (not sure if their published results are certified or not)
7.Missouri
8.Nebraska
9.Nevada
10.New Jersey
11.Pennsylvania
12.Washington (not sure if their published results are certified or not.)

New York's certified results are incomplete (which is mind numbingly incompetent.)

[Hnv1]

So...class action by this board against the state of NY for hedonic damages?

[StateBoiler]

So...class action by this board against the state of NY for hedonic damages?

None of us have standing unless a New York resident wishes to pursue.

[Tender Branson]

IL election results will be certified at a board meeting in 2 hours (10:30am).

[Benjamin Frank]

IL election results will be certified at a board meeting in 2 hours (10:30am).

Illinois has already posted the certified results.
https://www.elections.il.gov/ElectionOperations/ElectionVoteTotals.aspx?T=637426681322107555

Nebraska is also certifying today.

https://sos.nebraska.gov/sites/sos.nebraska.gov/files/doc/elections/2020/2020-General-Canvass-Board-Agenda.pdf

[Tender Branson]

IL election results will be certified at a board meeting in 2 hours (10:30am).

Illinois has already posted the certified results.
https://www.elections.il.gov/ElectionOperations/ElectionVoteTotals.aspx?T=637426681322107555

Nebraska is also certifying today.

https://sos.nebraska.gov/sites/sos.nebraska.gov/files/doc/elections/2020/2020-General-Canvass-Board-Agenda.pdf

Nebraska has already sent its certificate to the National Archives a few days ago.

[Tender Branson]

States that have already sent their Certificates of Ascertainment to the National Archives:

19/51

100 EV - Biden
100 EV - Trump
338 EV - None
538 EV - Total

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020

[Tender Branson]

Really confused here - the PA SOS website is saying that the official totals "do not include any votes from mail ballots received between 8 p.m. on election day and 5 p.m. the following Friday."

Which i don't understand b/c they were legal votes and all of the court battles against not counting them lost...

It comes up at the top of the SOS site when you go there - https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/

I think that PA will wait for all court decisions to be final (could take a few months) and then amend their results/certificate with the ballots that arrived between Election Day and Friday after that.

NY will likely also add additional ballots in the next months to their already "certified" results.

That's 3rd world style ...

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

States that have already sent their Certificates of Ascertainment to the National Archives:

19/51

100 EV - Biden
100 EV - Trump
338 EV - None
538 EV - Total

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020

Swing state governors disproportionately doing this step ASAP, I see.

[iceman]

IL election results will be certified at a board meeting in 2 hours (10:30am).

Illinois has already posted the certified results.
https://www.elections.il.gov/ElectionOperations/ElectionVoteTotals.aspx?T=637426681322107555

Nebraska is also certifying today.

https://sos.nebraska.gov/sites/sos.nebraska.gov/files/doc/elections/2020/2020-General-Canvass-Board-Agenda.pdf

so Illinois was a swing to R

[Benjamin Frank]

IL election results will be certified at a board meeting in 2 hours (10:30am).

Illinois has already posted the certified results.
https://www.elections.il.gov/ElectionOperations/ElectionVoteTotals.aspx?T=637426681322107555

Nebraska is also certifying today.

https://sos.nebraska.gov/sites/sos.nebraska.gov/files/doc/elections/2020/2020-General-Canvass-Board-Agenda.pdf

so Illinois was a swing to R

Interesting, so were Arkansas and New York (apparently especially New York City.) The most obvious thing these 3 states have in common is they're all home states of Hillary Clinton.  I don't know if that had any impact in the 2016 election, though, of course.

[iceman]

IL election results will be certified at a board meeting in 2 hours (10:30am).

Illinois has already posted the certified results.
https://www.elections.il.gov/ElectionOperations/ElectionVoteTotals.aspx?T=637426681322107555

Nebraska is also certifying today.

https://sos.nebraska.gov/sites/sos.nebraska.gov/files/doc/elections/2020/2020-General-Canvass-Board-Agenda.pdf

so Illinois was a swing to R

Interesting, so were Arkansas and New York (apparently especially New York City.) The most obvious thing these 3 states have in common is they're all home states of Hillary Clinton.  I don't know if that had any impact in the 2016 election, though, of course.

Nah, New York was a slight swing to Biden. But was a strong trend R though.

[Roll Roons]

Interesting how the four biggest blue states (CA, NY, IL, NJ) all trended R.

[Calthrina950]

Interesting how the four biggest blue states (CA, NY, IL, NJ) all trended R.

Biden didn't improve as much in these states as had been anticipated, falling short of Obama's 2012 numbers in New Jersey and New York, and approximating Obama's numbers from that year in Illinois. He outperformed both Obama and Clinton in California, but there was evidence of the minority swing to Republicans there, and this is the first time this century that Democrats have lost House seats in California-a result which they didn't experience even in 2010 or 2014.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1334908300102684674

[Tender Branson]

IL now certified:

https://wrex.com/2020/12/04/illinois-state-board-of-elections-certifies-2020-election-results/

[Nyvin]

Interesting how the four biggest blue states (CA, NY, IL, NJ) all trended R.

Kinda sorta a good thing IMO - In the sense that if the dems wanted any areas to trend R, it'd be their safe states that are already vote sinks.

[forsythvoter]

IL election results will be certified at a board meeting in 2 hours (10:30am).

Illinois has already posted the certified results.
https://www.elections.il.gov/ElectionOperations/ElectionVoteTotals.aspx?T=637426681322107555

Nebraska is also certifying today.

https://sos.nebraska.gov/sites/sos.nebraska.gov/files/doc/elections/2020/2020-General-Canvass-Board-Agenda.pdf

so Illinois was a swing to R

I'm actually not too surprised by IL - it already swung D in 2016 when the nation was swinging R so the R trend there is more of an reversion to the mean.

The really surprising trends this year for me were GA and FL. GA trended 3 points D, while FL trended 4.5 points R. Not what I would expect from neighboring states. That GA also flipped while FL gave Trump a 350K+ vote margin just makes it all the more astonishing.

[Tender Branson]

IL election results will be certified at a board meeting in 2 hours (10:30am).

Illinois has already posted the certified results.
https://www.elections.il.gov/ElectionOperations/ElectionVoteTotals.aspx?T=637426681322107555

Nebraska is also certifying today.

https://sos.nebraska.gov/sites/sos.nebraska.gov/files/doc/elections/2020/2020-General-Canvass-Board-Agenda.pdf

Nebraska has already sent its certificate to the National Archives a few days ago.

Cook Political is still stubbornly refusing to acknowledge that Nebraska has official results ...

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1334903673760182273

[ProgressiveModerate]

Certified map. Will make a county map soon.

BTW, is this a good gradient for a county map?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1334903673760182273

Since Trump has netted about 1k votes each in the two recounts, he just needs another dozen recounts or so to hold it after all.

[Skye]

Certified map. Will make a county map soon.

BTW, is this a good gradient for a county map?

I don't think there's anything wrong with the gradient, but not having outlines is a problem when you're trying to single out an individual county.

BTW, is that the 2000 Election?