2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[sguberman]

We will indeed be getting New York City results today:

https://twitter.com/BOENYC/status/1333838798430621698?s=20

Not sure what time exactly.

Is it a guarantee that Biden did worse in the City than Clinton no matter what or is it possible Biden ends up doing slightly better than Clinton did?

[Hnv1]

Are there any states besides NY that hadn't finished counting?

[Gass3268]

Are there any states besides NY that hadn't finished counting?

California still has at least 63K votes left to count, maybe as much as 106K.

[Antonio the Sixth]

We will indeed be getting New York City results today:

https://twitter.com/BOENYC/status/1333838798430621698?s=20

Not sure what time exactly.

Is it a guarantee that Biden did worse in the City than Clinton no matter what or is it possible Biden ends up doing slightly better than Clinton did?

Pretty much guaranteed based on my calculations, unless there are more votes left to count than reported.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The return of the horrid ultra-light blue color.

[pbrower2a]

Electoral Vote tracker, based on official/certified states + DC

40/51:

211 Trump
147 Biden

November 5th
Delaware

November 6th
New Hampshire

November 10th
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Vermont

November 11th
South Carolina
Wyoming

November 12th
North Dakota

November 17th
Florida

November 18th
Idaho
Mississippi
Virginia

November 19th
Louisiana
Massachusetts

November 20th
Georgia
Kentucky

November 23rd
Alabama
Maine (3 EV Biden, 1 EV Trump)
Michigan
Utah

November 24th
Arkansas
Hawaii
Indiana
Minnesota
Nevada
New Mexico
North Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Texas

November 25th
Connecticut

November 30th
Alaska
Arizona
Iowa
Montana
Nebraska (4 EV Trump, 1 EV Biden)
Rhode Island
Wisconsin

December 1st
Kansas

December 2nd
District of Columbia
West Virginia

December 3rd
Oregon
Washington
West Virginia one day early

December 4th
Illinois

December 7th
New York

December 8th
Maryland
Missouri
New Jersey

December 11th
California

December 14th
Electoral College votes

Unknown dates
Colorado (missed Nov. 30 deadline)
Tennessee (missed Nov. 23 deadline)

Results:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html
https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker?

Certificates of Ascertainment:

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020

[Gass3268]

Are there any states besides NY that hadn't finished counting?

California still has at least 63K votes left to count, maybe as much as 106K.

Mid-day update:

VBM: 24,221
Provisionals: 4,557
Conditional Registration: 14,937
Other: 4,344

TOTAL: 48,059

Still over 18K left in Lake County.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

According to the AP, NYC dropped and it pushed Biden over 60%.


Joe Biden
Democratic Party
60.3%
4,950,937

Donald Trump
Republican Party
38.4%
3,151,359

[BudgieForce]

According to the AP, Biden has officially cracked 60% in New York.


Joe Biden
Democratic Party
60.3%
4,950,937

Donald Trump
Republican Party
38.4%
3,151,359

Quick math...

Biden gained about 600,000 votes, Trump Gained 80,000.

I assume that was the NYC drop.

Edit: Although I'm making the mistake of comparing Cook's popular vote results to the most recent AP update. Cook has more complete numbers than the AP, so take my math with a grain of salt.

[n1240]

NYC was Biden 678570, Trump 104782 on new votes (Biden+72)

[Sorenroy]

According to the AP, Biden has officially cracked 60% in New York.

Joe Biden
Democratic Party
60.3%
4,950,937

Donald Trump
Republican Party
38.4%
3,151,359

Biden beats Johnson's 1964 record for votes in New York state. Johnson's record of 4,913,102 votes had stood for 56 years, with Obama's 2008 number missing the mark by more than 100,000 votes. Trump still lands more than a million behind Nixon's 1972 Republican record for the state, but it is the best number of votes for a Republican since 1984.

[Bootes Void]

My still says 95%, will Biden crack 5 million in NY?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

NYC results -

https://www.vote.nyc/sites/default/files/pdf/election_results/2020/20201103General%20Election/00000100000Citywide%20President%20Vice%20President%20Citywide%20Recap.pdf

[Kamala's side hoe]

NYC results -

https://www.vote.nyc/sites/default/files/pdf/election_results/2020/20201103General%20Election/00000100000Citywide%20President%20Vice%20President%20Citywide%20Recap.pdf

From eyeballing the PDF (too lazy to grab a calculator), it looks like Queens was around 70-27 Biden, Brooklyn was 77-22 Biden, Bronx was around 82-16 Biden, Manhattan was around 83-14 Biden, and Staten Island was around 55-44 Trump.

[Roll Roons]

NYC results -

https://www.vote.nyc/sites/default/files/pdf/election_results/2020/20201103General%20Election/00000100000Citywide%20President%20Vice%20President%20Citywide%20Recap.pdf

From eyeballing the PDF (too lazy to grab a calculator), it looks like Queens was around 70-27 Biden, Brooklyn was 77-22 Biden, Bronx was around 82-16 Biden, Manhattan was around 83-14 Biden, and Staten Island was around 55-44 Trump.

So that would mean every borough swung R except Staten Island. What a weird election.

[forza nocta]

Its seems the NYC dump has pushed Trump very slightly under 47%, according to the APs numbers. He’s at 46.969%

[Gass3268]

Quick Calculations:

Borough   Biden %   Trump %   Swing
Bronx   83.29%   15.88%   11.65%
Brooklyn   76.78%   22.14%   7.36%
Manhattan   86.42%   12.21%   2.64%
Queens   72.03%   26.92%   8.48%
Staten Island   41.98%   56.89%   0.17%
New York City   76.19%   22.70%   7.43%

[Skill and Chance]

Quick Calculations:

Borough   Biden %   Trump %   Swing
Bronx   83.29%   15.88%   11.65%
Brooklyn   76.78%   22.14%   7.36%
Manhattan   86.42%   12.21%   2.64%
Queens   72.03%   26.92%   8.48%
Staten Island   41.98%   56.89%   0.17%
New York City   76.19%   22.70%   7.43%

Wow.  NYC would be the most R-trending "state" in the country. 

I take it there's no chance of Biden topping the Obama 2012 post-LBJ record (63.35%) now?

It's kind of amazing Biden had so much of an EV/PV problem with all of these big cities swinging toward Trump.

[Mike88]

With this NYC vote dump, Biden is close to 81 million votes, which is basically the total number of ballots cast, 81,540,780, in the 1976 election in which Jimmy Carter won.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Biden did the impossible in NY!

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Its seems the NYC dump has pushed Trump very slightly under 47%, according to the APs numbers. He’s at 46.969%

Damn, even Mitt Romney got more than 47%. It has got to hurt Trumpty's ego not only losing, but being even MORE of a LOSER than Mitt Romney.

[Gass3268]

Quick Calculations:

Borough   Biden %   Trump %   Swing
Bronx   83.29%   15.88%   11.65%
Brooklyn   76.78%   22.14%   7.36%
Manhattan   86.42%   12.21%   2.64%
Queens   72.03%   26.92%   8.48%
Staten Island   41.98%   56.89%   0.17%
New York City   76.19%   22.70%   7.43%

Wow.  NYC would be the most R-trending "state" in the country. 

I take it there's no chance of Biden topping the Obama 2012 post-LBJ record (63.35%) now?

It's kind of amazing Biden had so much of an EV/PV problem with all of these big cities swinging toward Trump.

I still think there is enough out there that New York swings to Biden.

[Roll Roons]

So in the end, it looks like New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania will be the only states in the Northeast that trended R.

[iceman]

Is all of upstate NY done counting? If so, the only counties left to post their final numbers are Suffolk and Westchester.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Quick Calculations:

Borough   Biden %   Trump %   Swing
Bronx   83.29%   15.88%   11.65%
Brooklyn   76.78%   22.14%   7.36%
Manhattan   86.42%   12.21%   2.64%
Queens   72.03%   26.92%   8.48%
Staten Island   41.98%   56.89%   0.17%
New York City   76.19%   22.70%   7.43%

Wow.  NYC would be the most R-trending "state" in the country. 

I take it there's no chance of Biden topping the Obama 2012 post-LBJ record (63.35%) now?

It's kind of amazing Biden had so much of an EV/PV problem with all of these big cities swinging toward Trump.

I still think there is enough out there that New York swings to Biden.

Rockland County is now 50-49 Biden on the NY Times map.