2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[roxas11]

https://mobile.twitter.com/existentialfish/status/1329847884997660677

We seriously need some internationally-administered de-Trumpification in this country like we did in Germany after WWII. This behavior is not normal and certainly not an indication of a functioning society.

We need to stop the radicalization on both sides. The violence caused by the blm is worst as they really did commit violence and that isn't a sign of any functioning society either. Acting like this isn't a sad reality isn't going to help the divide in our society as the truth is needed to heal our wounds.

I hope both sides can cool it and find a way to work within a peaceful and civilized manner.

BLM and Antifa never did anything like this.......

FBI arrests of 13 suspects accused of plotting to kidnap Gretchen Whitmer, the Governor of Michigan, and otherwise violently overthrow the state government.



This was something on a whole other level and the "Both sides" BS simply is not going to work this time

The fact is these people were actively trying to kill a Governor and overthow a state government
Say what you will about BLM or Antifa but they have never done anthing that has even come close to something like this.  

[Tender Branson]

GA results now official (26 minutes ago):

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/105369/web.264614/#/summary

Official Results – Totals include all Absentee or Provisional Ballots

It seems they made the original count official, not the recount ...

That's odd. Is this the tabulation certified or are they still holding off on that?

I don't know ...

These "official" numbers do not even add up with their numbers in their recount PDF.

There are 3 different sets of data:

4.995.323 ("Original Reporting")
4.998.482 ("Official results")
5.000.585 ("Risk-Limiting Audit Full Hand Count")

I think only the last should be used.

https://sos.ga.gov/admin/uploads/county-summary-data.pdf

Yes, they said the original count (plus the unscanned ballots discovered during the audit) would be the official result, not the hand count, on the grounds that the audit proved there were no major problems with the machines, and therefore the machine count was more reliable than the hand count.

Kinda strange that they would certify the middle number and not the one with over 5 million in the hand audit, which is probably the best and most comprehensive ...

They could also point out the historical turnout, with 5 million+ for the first time.

[Brittain33]

I’m sure losing Georgia is shocking but I think it is FAR from gone for Republicans just because of 2020. Democrats are still underdogs in the runoffs and some of those suburbs may snap right back.

[DrScholl]

I’m sure losing Georgia is shocking but I think it is FAR from gone for Republicans just because of 2020. Democrats are still underdogs in the runoffs and some of those suburbs may snap right back.

Several of these suburbs swung Democratic in the statewide races in 2018 and the congressional races in GA-6 and GA-7 pretty much went like suburban races did in more Democratic friendly states. I don't think those suburbs are going to snap back.

[Asta]

https://mobile.twitter.com/existentialfish/status/1329847884997660677

We seriously need some internationally-administered de-Trumpification in this country like we did in Germany after WWII. This behavior is not normal and certainly not an indication of a functioning society.

We need to stop the radicalization on both sides. The violence caused by the blm is worst as they really did commit violence and that isn't a sign of any functioning society either. Acting like this isn't a sad reality isn't going to help the divide in our society as the truth is needed to heal our wounds.

I hope both sides can cool it and find a way to work within a peaceful and civilized manner.

https://www.cato.org/blog/terrorism-deaths-ideology-charlottesville-anomaly
From libertarian source, here you go.

Annual Chance of Dying in a Terrorist Attack by Ideology of Perpetrator, 1992-2017

Islamist
3,085              1 in 2,462,626

Nationalist and Right Wing
219           1 in 34,685,286

Left Wing
23             1  in 330,264,250


Terrorism Injuries per Ideology
Annual Chance of Being Injured

Islamist
16,366           1 in 464,138

Nationalist and Right Wing
998         1 in 7,611,300

Left Wing
46          1 in 165,132,125

Left wing causes nearly 10 times fewer deaths and 20 times fewer injuries. Tell me who is the more violent one.

[Non Swing Voter]

I’m sure losing Georgia is shocking but I think it is FAR from gone for Republicans just because of 2020. Democrats are still underdogs in the runoffs and some of those suburbs may snap right back.

It is going to go like Virginia did.  You'll have a 4 or 5 year period where it snaps to either side until the Democratic Party becomes the dominant party in the state and it eventually becomes a solid blue state.  This transition will happen sooner than people think.  Lets not forget that the FIRST time in the modern era that Virginia flipped in a Presidential race was only 12 years ago and it dropped from the battleground map only 8 years after that...

[Non Swing Voter]

So November 23 is the key date now?  If Michigan and Pennsylvania certify Trump has to move along?

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1329907323226234880

[Crumpets]

I’m sure losing Georgia is shocking but I think it is FAR from gone for Republicans just because of 2020. Democrats are still underdogs in the runoffs and some of those suburbs may snap right back.

It is going to go like Virginia did.  You'll have a 4 or 5 year period where it snaps to either side until the Democratic Party becomes the dominant party in the state and it eventually becomes a solid blue state.  This transition will happen sooner than people think.  Lets not forget that the FIRST time in the modern era that Virginia flipped in a Presidential race was only 12 years ago and it dropped from the battleground map only 8 years after that...

Yeah, it feels like Georgia is in a similar position to Virginia in 2008, but about 3 points more Republican relative to the nation as a whole. Republicans will probably do fine there in the midterms and any special elections over the next couple of years. It'll be very close in 2024 barring a blowout for either side, but that becomes less and less the case as you start to look at 2028 and beyond.

[Holmes]

I think the comparison to Virginia is a good one, but it’s more like 2006-ish Virginia. And remember that Virginia was still pretty purple-ish until maybe around 2015-2016 or so? They elected a Republican Governor in a landslide in 2009 and almost elected a Republican Senator in 2014.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1329824350371983362

[Hammy]

I’m sure losing Georgia is shocking but I think it is FAR from gone for Republicans just because of 2020. Democrats are still underdogs in the runoffs and some of those suburbs may snap right back.

It is going to go like Virginia did.  You'll have a 4 or 5 year period where it snaps to either side until the Democratic Party becomes the dominant party in the state and it eventually becomes a solid blue state.  This transition will happen sooner than people think.  Lets not forget that the FIRST time in the modern era that Virginia flipped in a Presidential race was only 12 years ago and it dropped from the battleground map only 8 years after that...

Yeah, it feels like Georgia is in a similar position to Virginia in 2008, but about 3 points more Republican relative to the nation as a whole. Republicans will probably do fine there in the midterms and any special elections over the next couple of years. It'll be very close in 2024 barring a blowout for either side, but that becomes less and less the case as you start to look at 2028 and beyond.

I still feel NC 2008 is a more reasonable comparison. Both have larger rural areas and--especially outside Atlanta metro--Georgia has no real major city centers to the extent Virginia does outside NoVa.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://mobile.twitter.com/existentialfish/status/1329847884997660677

[n1240]

Along with Rockland, St. Lawrence and Lewis both also swung R in NY. I think these will be the only counties outside of NYC in NY state that swing R, based on the absentee return data. Also a chance Fulton does as will, which has a common denominator with St. Lawrence and Lewis being in Elise Stefanik's district.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Current map of certified results

[Alben Barkley]

This is actually the first time since 1948 GA and VA both voted for a Democrat, isn’t it? Came very close in 1976 and 1992, but this is the first time it actually happened since then I’m pretty sure.

[Hammy]

Current map of certified results

Georgia's been certified within the last few hours.

[Horus]

Current map of certified results

Georgia's been certified within the last few hours.

Georgia is very light blue on that map.

[ucscgaldamez1]

With the Sec of State and Governor certifying the votes from GA, does this mean, absent Trump requesting the recount and the results being confirmed yet again that he lost, the electors will vote for Biden and there is nothing else the GA legislature can do since the vote has now been certified? I guess what I am asking in other words, is this a done deal in GA?

[Hammy]

Current map of certified results

Georgia's been certified within the last few hours.

Georgia is very light blue on that map.

I only just noticed, the screen was dimmer earlier.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/TiknisArts/status/1329936404785360898

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/TiknisArts/status/1329936404785360898

I've been very hard on ticket-splitting voters this year, and I still will be, but their presence has probably been the main cause of statewide Republicans in Biden states resisting the Trump campaign f***ery more so compared to Washington Republicans. Many Biden voters in their states are the same voters that voted for them too and they know it. Betraying the will of those voters would only end up backfiring on statewide politicians. That's the real calculation behind this. It's just how Republicans think. It's still cynical and self-serving, but for once it's these Republicans' self-interest aligning with the nation's interests, and that's for the best.

[Mike88]

Biden has surpassed the 6 million vote lead.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1329924511546957824

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

With the Sec of State and Governor certifying the votes from GA, does this mean, absent Trump requesting the recount and the results being confirmed yet again that he lost, the electors will vote for Biden and there is nothing else the GA legislature can do since the vote has now been certified? I guess what I am asking in other words, is this a done deal in GA?

Pretty much. The legislature doesn't have any real say anyway, it's not in session, Kemp has said he won't call a special session when asked to do so to tighten residency requirements for the runoffs, and Georgia requires 3/5 of the legislators to request a special session to do one, and the Democrats have over 2/5 of the State House. And Trump's last lawsuit was dismissed. Georgia is over.