2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[emailking]

Yes I'll caveat I'm assuming he'd lose the House vote.

[brucejoel99]

Perfect timing from Dave here, if I do say so myself:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1328018684980367367
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1328021429795827714

[lfromnj]

Yeah when you look at the map and the PV margin and compare to 2016 it certainly feels like Biden had a pretty solid victory here. But when you actually look at the math (and yes, the math is what matters here) and look at the margins, he won it by the skin of his teeth.

ermm i disagree. it wasnt a blowout but he certainly won by more than trump did

The tipping point state is a touch to the right of the 2016 tipping point state(WI) so he did not win by more than Trump did in 2016 both of which were pretty narrow victories.

[Yellowhammer]

Biden up by only 2.4% in Nevada.

Guys, Cortez-Masto is safe in 2022.

[Rand]

Biden closing in on 50% in PA with a few new votes from Philly.

Joe Biden 3,419,445 (49.91%)
Donald Trump 3,352,748 (48.94%)
Jo Jorgensen 78,704 (1.15%)

Biden lead: +66,697

Biden’s lead growing bigger and stronger and more veiny by the hour.

[Badger]

Such a triggered snowflake. What a sore LOSER!

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1327978710809661440
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1327979630477922304

He sounds like a teenager after no one came to their birthday party.

I don't care how supposedly elitist this sounds, the fact that over 45% of Voters twice fought this man was remotely, conceivably, fit to come within a country mile of sitting in the Oval Office is nothing short of a disgraceful indictment of our country.

[Badger]

Murphy should be sued, because what she is doing is completely unacceptable.

Why? Serious question. The Tweet above to which you were responding seems like the most innocuous thing I've ever read in this thread.

[Badger]

Based on the combined vote margins in the deciding states (WI+GA+AZ), this was a closer election than 2016 (PA+WI+MI)!

This framing is not exactly accurate. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were the deciding states here because Biden crossed 270 with them before Arizona and Georgia were called. When you add up those three you get a margin of over 234,000 votes and that is really what decided this election.

Compared to less than an 80000 vote margin spread among those three states combined in 2016. Plus of course that doesn't count by small but still calculable margins in Georgia and Arizona

[brucejoel99]

Murphy should be sued, because what she is doing is completely unacceptable.

Why? Serious question. The Tweet above to which you were responding seems like the most innocuous thing I've ever read in this thread.

Not DrScholl but I shared the tweet because it's patently obvious that Trump would neither know nor care about Emily Murphy - let alone share a tweet of hers with the caption "Good job!" - were it not for her blocking the Biden transition.

[Catalyst138]

Fitting that Delaware is the first, lol

Not only is it Biden’s home state but it’s also the “first state” as in the first to join the Union.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1328085372732137472

[DrScholl]

Murphy should be sued, because what she is doing is completely unacceptable.

Why? Serious question. The Tweet above to which you were responding seems like the most innocuous thing I've ever read in this thread.

I wasn't referring to her tweet, but to the fact that she is unfairly holding up the presidential transition.

[vitoNova]

It's kind of a relief reading through that fat chick Murphy's tweeter feed, and realizing she doesn't appear to a diehard Trumpist ideologue.

But rather a technocrat. 

[Non Swing Voter]

It's kind of a relief reading through that fat chick Murphy's tweeter feed, and realizing she doesn't appear to a diehard Trumpist ideologue.

But rather a technocrat. 

Yeah not sure that helps with the fact that she's not doing her damn job and thus putting the country at risk to placate a spoiled brat.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

It's kind of a relief reading through that fat chick Murphy's tweeter feed, and realizing she doesn't appear to a diehard Trumpist ideologue.

But rather a technocrat. 

She's still a Trump lapdog/sycophant though.

[Hope For A New Era]

So here's an interesting thing I found.

Missouri county - Pres margin / Gov margin

Jefferson - R+34/R+30
Ste. Genevieve - R+41/R+34
St. Francois - R+48/R+42
Washington - R+61/R+54
Iron - R+58/R+48

These are the Obama/Romney counties (+ St. Francois), and they, taken together with the rest of the state, are a very clear picture of a realignment.

Realignments happen from the top of the ballot down. So in the ancestrally Democratic Leadbelt, there are Trump/Galloway voters.
I guess this also proves that her Ste. Genevieve win in 2018 was not a fluke. She actually does have appeal to ancestral Dems.

Meanwhile, suburban ancestral Republicans are realigning too, creating Biden/Parson voters. My own Platte County voted R+2 for President and R+5 for Governor.

Pretty cool to see.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Based on the combined vote margins in the deciding states (WI+GA+AZ), this was a closer election than 2016 (PA+WI+MI)!

This framing is not exactly accurate. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were the deciding states here because Biden crossed 270 with them before Arizona and Georgia were called. When you add up those three you get a margin of over 234,000 votes and that is really what decided this election.

That just isn't correct. If Biden had lost 20,000 votes in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan would have just pushed Biden over 270 before Arizona flipped to Trump and Georgia stayed Trump, pushing him back above 270. It doesn't matter what order the states are called in lol--all that matters is the eventual electoral college outcome. And a world where WI, AZ, and GA go Trump is a world where Trump wins. Thus, WI+AZ+GA is the Biden margin of victory.

That's how I see it too. Judging an entire election with many facets to it by how the tipping point went is really arbitrary. The fact of the matter is that Biden won the popular vote with the most votes ever for a presidential candidate, managed to expand the map, and did exactly what he needed to do in the states he absolutely needed in an election with record turnout that resulted in him getting as many electoral votes as Trump's "blowout" from 2016. Expectations may not have been met due to the polling distorting the reality of the race, but it was still a win in the end, and it was one that very clearly rejected Trump.

Honestly, the fact that Biden's victory is something that can be debated in spite of the popular vote win really shows how stupid the Electoral College is as a system. How individual states vote really shouldn't matter.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1327931164552802305

in case anyone was wondering if Rasmussen polling is a partisan hack.

[vitoNova]

It's kind of a relief reading through that fat chick Murphy's tweeter feed, and realizing she doesn't appear to a diehard Trumpist ideologue.

But rather a technocrat. 

Yeah not sure that helps with the fact that she's not doing her damn job and thus putting the country at risk to placate a spoiled brat.

I trust her.

She's just waiting for official word. 

[DrScholl]

It's kind of a relief reading through that fat chick Murphy's tweeter feed, and realizing she doesn't appear to a diehard Trumpist ideologue.

But rather a technocrat.  

A person can be an ideologue and not publicly show it. Trump shouting it out to her makes it seem like she is doing exactly what he wants her to do.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Based on the combined vote margins in the deciding states (WI+GA+AZ), this was a closer election than 2016 (PA+WI+MI)!

This framing is not exactly accurate. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were the deciding states here because Biden crossed 270 with them before Arizona and Georgia were called. When you add up those three you get a margin of over 234,000 votes and that is really what decided this election.

That just isn't correct. If Biden had lost 20,000 votes in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan would have just pushed Biden over 270 before Arizona flipped to Trump and Georgia stayed Trump, pushing him back above 270. It doesn't matter what order the states are called in lol--all that matters is the eventual electoral college outcome. And a world where WI, AZ, and GA go Trump is a world where Trump wins. Thus, WI+AZ+GA is the Biden margin of victory.

You're moving the goal posts. All Biden needed was Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and he flipped them.. Regardless of how you play with the math, Biden clearly won this election by more than Trump did in 2016.

That's not how it works...

Are you familiar with the concept of a tipping point?

[Non Swing Voter]

It's kind of a relief reading through that fat chick Murphy's tweeter feed, and realizing she doesn't appear to a diehard Trumpist ideologue.

But rather a technocrat. 

Yeah not sure that helps with the fact that she's not doing her damn job and thus putting the country at risk to placate a spoiled brat.

I trust her.

She's just waiting for official word. 

official word?  it's her decision.  She doesn't need Trump to get over his feelings.  She could release the funds now.  The networks have called it.

[forza nocta]

https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1327931164552802305
in case anyone was wondering if Rasmussen polling is a partisan hack.

The worst part of this tweet is that it's a damn lie. Biden improved over Hillary in all of the Texas metros, NOVA, Seattle, Portland, Minny, Denver, KC, Indianapolis, OKC, Tampa and a bunch more.

[DrScholl]

Based on the combined vote margins in the deciding states (WI+GA+AZ), this was a closer election than 2016 (PA+WI+MI)!

This framing is not exactly accurate. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were the deciding states here because Biden crossed 270 with them before Arizona and Georgia were called. When you add up those three you get a margin of over 234,000 votes and that is really what decided this election.

That just isn't correct. If Biden had lost 20,000 votes in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan would have just pushed Biden over 270 before Arizona flipped to Trump and Georgia stayed Trump, pushing him back above 270. It doesn't matter what order the states are called in lol--all that matters is the eventual electoral college outcome. And a world where WI, AZ, and GA go Trump is a world where Trump wins. Thus, WI+AZ+GA is the Biden margin of victory.

You're moving the goal posts. All Biden needed was Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and he flipped them.. Regardless of how you play with the math, Biden clearly won this election by more than Trump did in 2016.

That's not how it works...

Are you familiar with the concept of a tipping point?

Let me put it like this. Biden won the states that put Trump over the top in 2016 by more than Trump won them by in 2016. Some people seem to be trying to say that Arizona and Georgia saved Biden when that simply isn't true. Biden would have won without both of them. Just because they are the tipping point does not mean that they saved Biden.

[wbrocks67]

~6300 more ballots out of PA, Biden wins them 4135-2157, 66%-34%

His lead has officially crossed 1.00%+

Joe Biden 3,423,580 (49.93%)
Donald Trump 3,354,905 (48.92%)
Jo Jorgensen 78,756 (1.15%)

Biden lead: +68,675