2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Torie]

This list was posted earlier, but I'm just reposting below for my own reference and everyone else's reference with the current numbers.

Here's the current breakdown of margins in swing states (decided by less than 10%) from most Republican to most Democratic:

Iowa Trump +8.20
Ohio Trump +8.16
ME-2* Trump+6.6
Texas Trump +5.77
Florida Trump +3.37
North Carolina Trump +1.38
Georgia Biden +0.20
Arizona Biden +0.57
Pennsylvania Biden +0.60
Wisconsin Biden +0.62
Nevada Biden +2.13
Michigan Biden +2.64
NE-2* Biden +6.6
Minnesota Biden +7.10
New Hampshire Biden +7.11
Virginia Biden +9.72

*Congressional districts I only have numbers down to 1/10th of a percent.

Wisconsin will be the tipping point state since Biden has some margin to go in PA unless all the late votes are tossed out by SCOTUS which won't happen because PA won't matter as to how it goes  (and the late votes are very unlikely to be enough to change the result anyway in PA, assuming they were counted and in the current totals), so that case is moot. So what happens if Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona (which might actually go to Trump anyway), had all gone to Trump? You do the math.

[Podgy the Bear]

ME-2* Trump+6.6
NE-2* Biden +6.6

This is such a sign of the current political landscape.

In 2016, the gap between these districts (on a Pres. level) was about 8%, with ME-2 voting to the right of NE-2 after voting to the left of it for nearly every cycle. This cycle we may have a difference of 13%, which is a remarkable shift compared to 2012, 2008, 2004, etc.

I suspect that this divergence will diminish markedly for 2022, as the state legislatures (definitely, ME as it is D; less sure about NE as it is unicameral and technically nonpartisan) will do whatever needed to move majority party support into these congressional districts.

[brucejoel99]

CNN reporting that Melania Trump is urging her husband to concede the race.

Too bad she can't get him to plagiarize an Obama concession speech since Barack never lost.

[Skill and Chance]

ME-2* Trump+6.6
NE-2* Biden +6.6

This is such a sign of the current political landscape.

In 2016, the gap between these districts (on a Pres. level) was about 8%, with ME-2 voting to the right of NE-2 after voting to the left of it for nearly every cycle. This cycle we may have a difference of 13%, which is a remarkable shift compared to 2012, 2008, 2004, etc.

I suspect that this divergence will diminish markedly for 2022, as the state legislatures (definitely, ME as it is D; less sure about NE as it is unicameral and technically nonpartisan) will do whatever needed to move majority party support into these congressional districts.

The ME constitution requires a 2/3rds majority, which Dems don't have, to pass a redistricting plan.  What they could do by a simple majority vote is end the EV splitting entirely.  Perhaps they should make clear to the NE GOP they will do that if NE-02 is meaningfully altered.  NE would retaliate by doing the same, but that would be net 0 EV whereas it would be Biden -1 if NE-02 is gerrymandered but ME-02 can't be.

[lfromnj]

ME-2* Trump+6.6
NE-2* Biden +6.6

This is such a sign of the current political landscape.

In 2016, the gap between these districts (on a Pres. level) was about 8%, with ME-2 voting to the right of NE-2 after voting to the left of it for nearly every cycle. This cycle we may have a difference of 13%, which is a remarkable shift compared to 2012, 2008, 2004, etc.

I suspect that this divergence will diminish markedly for 2022, as the state legislatures (definitely, ME as it is D; less sure about NE as it is unicameral and technically nonpartisan) will do whatever needed to move majority party support into these congressional districts.

Maine requires 2/3 IIRC

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So what's going on with Trump's lawsuits? Still getting slapped down as a matter of course?

[MATTROSE94]

So what's going on with Trump's lawsuits? Still getting slapped down as a matter of course?

Amy Coney Barrett, Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas, Neil Gorsuch, and Brett Kavanaugh will do all in their power to give Donald Trump three more terms in office.

[Fargobison]

https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1325488958596390913
https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1325489690351448064

[GeorgiaModerate]

From https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html, it looks like Navajo dropped some ballots.  Biden's statewide lead is 18553.  Plugging the new ones in my spreadsheet, it looks like there are an estimated 102,437 ballots left - 7553 waiting for signature cure, 44668 provisionals, and 50216 waiting to be tabulated.  Using my optimistic-for-Trump assumptions:

1) 50% of the signature cures will be accepted.
2) 80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
3) Trump will run 10% ahead (and Biden 10% behind, so a net 20%  for Trump) of the current margins in each county.

With these numbers and assumptions, 89727 more ballots would be counted and Trump would net 16736, leaving him still a bit short.  But close enough that it's still interesting.

[n1240]

there is a schedule for today counts update?

i just noted a update in Alaska count, Trump margin is up to 54,610

The AK SOS has had these results for days, no mail-in votes have been included.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/prof_mirya/status/1325478910608420865

[Brittain33]

Hayes was one term.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/NW_Horadam/status/1325439595367063552
https://twitter.com/NW_Horadam/status/1325444450433306626

That doesn't seem to be true.

The way I see it, the people voting for third parties are casting protest votes: not necessary that they actually believe what the Green or Libertarian believe or some other third parties.

If they can't vote for Green, they'll vote for Libertarian or some other third parties.

______________________________

all Georgia third parties: 1.24%

all North Carolina third parties: 1.23%

______________________________

all Michigan third parties: 1.52%

all Wisconsin third parties:1.49%

______________________________

Yeah, this this is definitely not true in Wisconsin.  The Greens would probably have gotten around .25% of the vote there this year, based on their nationwide share and the Green vote in WI in an anologous election like 2012.  And Biden won WI by more than double that amount.

The same would be true if anything close to Biden’s current margin holds up in Arizona.

Whether it is true on not in Georgia is irrelevant because the Green party is never on the ballot in Georgia.

[Crumpets]

2016 third-pace finisher Colin Powell congratulates Biden (surprise, surprise)

Eric Schmitt (NYT): Former Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, in a telephone interview: "Joe Biden brings back the American way of doing things. He'll return us to who we are."

[Sbane]

From https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html, it looks like Navajo dropped some ballots.  Biden's statewide lead is 18553.  Plugging the new ones in my spreadsheet, it looks like there are an estimated 102,437 ballots left - 7553 waiting for signature cure, 44668 provisionals, and 50216 waiting to be tabulated.  Using my optimistic-for-Trump assumptions:

1) 50% of the signature cures will be accepted.
2) 80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
3) Trump will run 10% ahead (and Biden 10% behind, so a net 20%  for Trump) of the current margins in each county.

With these numbers and assumptions, 89727 more ballots would be counted and Trump would net 16736, leaving him still a bit short.  But close enough that it's still interesting.

Wouldn't 80% acceptance rate be a little high for provisionals? I also doubt they go to Trump by a greater margin than his current margin. Usually Democrats do much better with provisionals than other types of ballots. Perhaps it won't be as much of an advantage this year as they collapsed with the working class, but they should still be more Democratic than the votes that came before. The real question is whether it goes to Biden by a greater margin than Wisconsin.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/NW_Horadam/status/1325439595367063552
https://twitter.com/NW_Horadam/status/1325444450433306626

That doesn't seem to be true.

The way I see it, the people voting for third parties are casting protest votes: not necessary that they actually believe what the Green or Libertarian believe or some other third parties.

If they can't vote for Green, they'll vote for Libertarian or some other third parties.

______________________________

all Georgia third parties: 1.24%

all North Carolina third parties: 1.23%

______________________________

all Michigan third parties: 1.52%

all Wisconsin third parties:1.49%

______________________________

Yeah, this this is definitely not true in Wisconsin.  The Greens would probably have gotten around .25% of the vote there this year, based on their nationwide share and the Green vote in WI in an anologous election like 2012.  And Biden won WI by more than double that amount.

The same would be true if anything close to Biden’s current margin holds up in Arizona.

Whether it is true on not in Georgia is irrelevant because the Green party is never on the ballot in Georgia.

I am not saying that it wouldn't, but Green would probably just take from other third parties.

[Earthling]

https://twitter.com/prof_mirya/status/1325478910608420865

Hayes was also a one-term president.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1325493261591433216

[Earthling]

Hayes was one term.

He did lose re-election (and probably would have won re-election somewhat easily).

He did not run for reelection.

[GeorgiaModerate]

From https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html, it looks like Navajo dropped some ballots.  Biden's statewide lead is 18553.  Plugging the new ones in my spreadsheet, it looks like there are an estimated 102,437 ballots left - 7553 waiting for signature cure, 44668 provisionals, and 50216 waiting to be tabulated.  Using my optimistic-for-Trump assumptions:

1) 50% of the signature cures will be accepted.
2) 80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
3) Trump will run 10% ahead (and Biden 10% behind, so a net 20%  for Trump) of the current margins in each county.

With these numbers and assumptions, 89727 more ballots would be counted and Trump would net 16736, leaving him still a bit short.  But close enough that it's still interesting.

Wouldn't 80% acceptance rate be a little high for provisionals? I also doubt they go to Trump by a greater margin than his current margin. Usually Democrats do much better with provisionals than other types of ballots. Perhaps it won't be as much of an advantage this year as they collapsed with the working class, but they should still be more Democratic than the votes that came before. The real question is whether it goes to Biden by a greater margin than Wisconsin.

Yes, it would.  These were the ranges I had to create to get Trump in striking distance; some of my earlier posts showed results with lower (and likely more reasonable) assumptions, which resulted in Trump gaining 5K-8K. 

The key point to take away is that Trump can overtake Biden, but only if he gets some very favorable breaks -- and while these are unlikely to occur, they cannot yet be ruled out.

[Illiniwek]

There’s a change.org petition going around to recount and revote the entire election.

Who wants to watch trump lose a second time?

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/tomzoellner/status/1325493493830045696

[Crumpets]

NYT projects Spanberger has won reelection. Woot!

[FrancoAgo]

there is a schedule for today counts update?

i just noted a update in Alaska count, Trump margin is up to 54,610

The AK SOS has had these results for days, no mail-in votes have been included.

Was not 51,382 that until yesterday?

[gf20202]

CNN reporting that Melania Trump is urging her husband to concede the race.

Too bad she can't get him to plagiarize an Obama concession speech since Barack never lost.

Bobby Rush would like a word:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_Illinois%27s_1st_congressional_district_election