2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anyone post the map with Atlas colors yet? Well here it is:

No one can convince me the map wouldn't look better with Biden winning North Carolina instead of Georgia.

Yeah, it does look way better. But the way I see it, Georgia sticking out so blatantly is like how Minnesota did in 2016. It's yet another mirror of that map. So for that reason I've grown to accept it.

I kind of like having islands in maps personally

[charcuterie]

Hearing a report that the Biden campaign actually requested that networks not call any remaining state until his lead is above 0.5%.

Still doesn't explain Nevada though....

Why would the networks listen to the Biden campaign on that?

[GeorgiaModerate]

This thread is going to hit 1000 before Nevada even finishes.

If there's any justice in this world, Nevada gets called on page 777.

Irrelevant aside: this reminds me of a (possibly apocryphal) story that circulated after the luckiest day of the 20th Century: July 7, 1977 or 7/7/77.  Supposedly, there was a horse race on that day that featured a horse named Lucky Seven, wearing number 7, in the 7th race. 

Naturally, everyone in the park bet on Lucky Seven.

He finished seventh.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Anyone post the map with Atlas colors yet? Well here it is:

No one can convince me the map wouldn't look better with Biden winning North Carolina instead of Georgia.

Flipping Florida red would be a bigger improvement. GA makes FL stick out in such an unattractive way.

[musicblind]

I'm starting to think our fears of post-election violence were overblown.

(Not saying there won't be small pockets of unrest, but so far, thousands of Trump supporters haven't taken to the streets.)

*fingers crossed*

I am pleasantly surprised so far.  I was half-expecting Oklahoma City-style bombings, or maybe that will happen after Biden is inaugurated... 

Armed protesters showing up at polling sites demanding they stop counting votes is about as bad as it gets and not something that should ever happen in America.

It's awful, truly awful, but it isn't dead bodies littering the streets.

I was just saying maybe our worst fears were overblown, not that all our fears were unfounded.

[brucejoel99]

Hearing a report that the Biden campaign actually requested that networks not call any remaining state until his lead is above 0.5%.

Link?

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Hearing a report that the Biden campaign actually requested that networks not call any remaining state until his lead is above 0.5%.

Need a link for this BS.

[Lewist123]

Do you think it's possible that they're not calling Nevada yet because that would force Fox into a call, meaning they would be calling the election first. Fox cannot call Nevada because they know they probably jumped the gun on Arizona. The minute they all call Arizona I can see them all calling Nevada very quickly after across the board, so they're all calling at a similar time and keeping their viewership.

[Non Swing Voter]

this is actually getting atrocious.  there is no excuse for places like Nevada to not count more timely.  and really there's no excuse to not call Nevada at this point.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

[ProgressiveModerate]

Do you think it's possible that they're not calling Nevada yet because that would force Fox into a call, meaning they would be calling the election first. Fox cannot call Nevada because they know they probably jumped the gun on Arizona. The minute they all call Arizona I can see them all calling Nevada very quickly after across the board, so they're all calling at a similar time and keeping their viewership.

Idk if it’s necessarily because Fox jumped the gun on AZ; they have more precinct data than CNN and us which goes a long way when you have vague counties like Maricopa. CNN just doesn’t have the data to be able to call AZ, and they can’t call it based on FOX’s call since they don’t know if they jumped the gun or not.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hearing a report that the Biden campaign actually requested that networks not call any remaining state until his lead is above 0.5%.

Link?

Hearing a report that the Biden campaign actually requested that networks not call any remaining state until his lead is above 0.5%.

Need a link for this BS.

General social media/Reddit chatter so take it with the applicable amount of salt. Kind of makes sense though, the Biden campaign would want a firm lead and not appearing like the media is trying to cover for them or something.  But who knows.

PA might actually be waiting until it's mathematically impossible for Trump to take the lead again. Nate Silver already demolished the nonsense about the provisionals.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Do you think it's possible that they're not calling Nevada yet because that would force Fox into a call, meaning they would be calling the election first. Fox cannot call Nevada because they know they probably jumped the gun on Arizona. The minute they all call Arizona I can see them all calling Nevada very quickly after across the board, so they're all calling at a similar time and keeping their viewership.

Idk if it’s necessarily because Fox jumped the gun on AZ; they have more precinct data than CNN and us which goes a long way when you have vague counties like Maricopa. CNN just doesn’t have the data to be able to call AZ, and they can’t call it based on FOX’s call since they don’t know if they jumped the gun or not.

Nate Silver says that while Fox's initial call was too soon he thinks there's enough in to justify it now. Fox and AP used a different data set than most networks that included detailed precinct breakdowns so it's easy to see why they got an earlier determination.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324872039543365632

[ProgressiveModerate]

Also; why can’t CNN and other networks just get the precinct data FOX has?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

You know the really frustrating part about this media stuff is they have hordes of hundreds of millions of people who actually believe them down to every dotted i and every crossed t. Like my dad is still convinced that Nevada is a horserace and does not want to hear otherwise.

[T'Chenka]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324872039543365632

It's okay, that only brings Biden to 264, so the media can continue to f___ with us.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Sorry, had to post this now:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qetW6R9Jxs4

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So in regards to those Georgia military ballots...

https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1324868110529277958?s=19

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

One thing we haven't acknowledged enough--how good The Needle is. It picked up on FL, GA, and NC like an hour into election night. Whatever algorithm they're feeding it works.

[Splash]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't PA counties already doing that? Also, it's my understanding that no post-11/3 ballots have actually been counted so Biden's current lead in the state is built off of ballots cast by poll closing time on 11/3.

https://twitter.com/GeoffRBennett/status/1324876272858767365

[Angasboy15]

One thing we haven't acknowledged enough--how good The Needle is. It picked up on FL, GA, and NC like an hour into election night. Whatever algorithm they're feeding it works.

Yeah the Georgia needle was weird though because it pointed overwhelmingly to a Trump victory before jerking back, after some adjustment was made to the data?

[Crumpets]

Hey we just counted
And this is crazy
Joe's clearly winning
So call me maybe

[gf20202]

Fox News just reported that if the networks call the race by 10 PM EST, then victory speeches outdoors at 11:30 PM EST. If no call by 10, then just a brief Biden statement indoors.

[GeorgiaModerate]

One thing we haven't acknowledged enough--how good The Needle is. It picked up on FL, GA, and NC like an hour into election night. Whatever algorithm they're feeding it works.

Nate Cohn later expounded that they limited it to those states because they were battlegrounds for which they could get good data quickly on both where data came from and by what method (ED, EIP, or absentee).  This wasn't possible nationwide, which is why there was no national needle.  But for those three states, he said the needle was MUCH smarter than the 2016 needle was.