2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Badger]

This thread explains pretty well why Trump probably can’t win AZ:

https://twitter.com/djquinlan/status/1324428554403110913?s=20

I'm still nervous. Isn't he tracking almost exactly on what he needs to win it?

Not good enough. If I'm not mistaken a lot of the remaining ballots are from Gallego's district (i.e. more Dem than Maricopa). Trump probably wants to be overperforming in Maricopa to make room for those ballots being more disappointing.

Calling Gallegos District more democratic than the balance of Maricopa County is a huge understatement

[Lewist123]

Do we have any idea when we are likely to get PA's votes in? Just begging for the election to be called so I can get back to a normal life and not checking my phone every 5 minutes!

[ultraviolet]

Are there any popular Hispanic male politicians from Pennsylvania who are fluent in both English and Spanish in the state legislature or the congress? If the results of this election are anything to go by, someone who fits that profile would immediately rocket to the top of the 2024 contenders for the Democratic nomination.

I feel like this isn’t the best way to choose a nominee

However, this oddly specific request has piqued my interest, I’m gonna look now

Jay Costa from SD-43 is hispanic and male, not sure if he’s popular or speaks Spanish though. Either way, no state legislator is winning the nomination

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

No matter how Georgia goes in the end, Joe Biden and Democrats can send a big Thank you card to Stacey Abrams. Her efforts since 2018 have truly made this possible and paid off big time.

What sucks is that she would probably be the governor right now if Kemp didn't screw with the voting.

[Badger]

OMG

Alicia Parlapiano, in Washington 6m ago

The registrar in Clark County (Las Vegas) said the county would release the next batch of votes around noon ET on Friday. Remaining votes include mail and provisional ballots.


are you kidding me? it should not take 24 hours to count another batch

oh ffs

[forsythvoter]

Chatham has 17K absentees out and their counted ones so far are going 3-1 Biden just to give you a sense of what's out there.

Cobb apparently had a few more ballots that weren't in the original estimates and that netted Biden a hundred or so. Trump lead in GA now down to 13,220. 50K outstanding.

Numbers look bad for Trump.

At that rate even 65% of the outstanding ballots going to Biden would be enough for him to win, and thus far the late returns have been notably more favorable to him than that.

Even now with no Fulton?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Chatham has 17K absentees out and their counted ones so far are going 3-1 Biden just to give you a sense of what's out there.

Cobb apparently had a few more ballots that weren't in the original estimates and that netted Biden a hundred or so. Trump lead in GA now down to 13,220. 50K outstanding.

Numbers look bad for Trump.

At that rate even 65% of the outstanding ballots going to Biden would be enough for him to win, and thus far the late returns have been notably more favorable to him than that.

Even now with no Fulton?

Is it possible for Biden to cross 60% in Chatham?

[GeneralMacArthur]

This thread explains pretty well why Trump probably can’t win AZ:

https://twitter.com/djquinlan/status/1324428554403110913?s=20

So to summarize, if this information is correct:

Biden up by 68K
435K outstanding ballots

265K outstanding in Maricopa
65K = Trump-friendly
200K = Other (probably Biden-friendly)

160K outstanding in non-Maricopa

62K Pinal
41K = Trump-friendly
21K = Other

58K Pima/Coconino

36K rurals


The Trump-friendly ballots are the ones that have been counted so far in Maricopa and have been going for Trump by about 60-40.  In my earlier post, I wrote that Trump needed ALL the remaining ballots to average out to 60-40.  Instead, he's only barely sniffing at those numbers with the Trump-friendly ballots, and the vast majority of ballots left to count are "Other" which are most likely NOT Trump-friendly.

So basically, he needs to be doing BETTER with the "Other" ballots than he's been doing with the "Trump-friendly" ballots in Maricopa, if he's going to stand a chance.  Gains in Pinal and the Rurals alone won't cut it.

[Inmate Trump]

Chatham has 17K absentees out and their counted ones so far are going 3-1 Biden just to give you a sense of what's out there.

Cobb apparently had a few more ballots that weren't in the original estimates and that netted Biden a hundred or so. Trump lead in GA now down to 13,220. 50K outstanding.

Numbers look bad for Trump.

At that rate even 65% of the outstanding ballots going to Biden would be enough for him to win, and thus far the late returns have been notably more favorable to him than that.

Even now with no Fulton?

I wish NYTimes needle was still operating in GA.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Cobb apparently had a few more ballots that weren't in the original estimates and that netted Biden a hundred or so. Trump lead in GA now down to 13,220. 50K outstanding.

Numbers look bad for Trump.

At that rate even 65% of the outstanding ballots going to Biden would be enough for him to win, and thus far the late returns have been notably more favorable to him than that.

Even now with no Fulton?

mail-ins even in freaking Forsyth County were upwards of 60% Biden. I think he can make it.

COAL MOUNTAIN JOE

[rhg2052]

No matter how Georgia goes in the end, Joe Biden and Democrats can send a big Thank you card to Stacey Abrams. Her efforts since 2018 have truly made this possible and paid off big time.

Make 👏 Her 👏  DNC 👏 Chair 👏

[Roronoa D. Law]

If Biden wins Georgia. Stacy Abrams needs to be the chair of the DNC cause whatever she doing she's doing it right.

[Badger]

Cobb apparently had a few more ballots that weren't in the original estimates and that netted Biden a hundred or so. Trump lead in GA now down to 13,220. 50K outstanding.

Numbers look bad for Trump.

At that rate even 65% of the outstanding ballots going to Biden would be enough for him to win, and thus far the late returns have been notably more favorable to him than that.

Even now with no Fulton?

Good point. Still, isn't there a fair bit out from some of the surrounding counties which have also been heavily democratic? What's the latest breakdown you--or anyone else here - - has regarding the breakdown of where the outstanding votes are from?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

OMG

Alicia Parlapiano, in Washington 6m ago

The registrar in Clark County (Las Vegas) said the county would release the next batch of votes around noon ET on Friday. Remaining votes include mail and provisional ballots.


are you kidding me? it should not take 24 hours to count another batch

oh ffs

It's a good thing that we will probably get GA and PA to end the election today so we don't have to care.

[Angel of Death]

If anyone wants a good laugh, go to the Newsmax TV stream and watch Dick Morris about 25 minutes ago.

[BigSerg]

(NYT) -- 2:00pm

The registrar in Clark County (Las Vegas) said the county would release the next batch of votes around noon ET on Friday. Remaining votes include mail and provisional ballots.

[roxas11]

I am now fully convinced that the Dems need to completely divorce themselves from the woke academic language and distance themselves from activists that push it. I felt this way earlier but was reluctant to say it. It doesn't help us politically with the average minority voter who do not experience race in those terms nor with the moderate/conservative white voters. It seems to exist solely for elite spaces for white liberals and elite minorities.

One good thing about both Biden and Sanders was that they stayed away from that stuff although some others in the primaries like Gillibrand and Castro dabbled in it. We need to make sure that the same happens going forward as well. Anyone who use the term "intersectionality" or "latinx" should not be nominated for the Democrats up or down the ballot.

Biden did not lose Florida because of woke language
He lost because Trump had conviced a lot of Cuban and Venezuelan Americans that he was communist who supported socialist

you can pick the most anti woke Dem of all time and it wont matter in the end if they are still successfully branded as socialist or communist in places like Florida

remember if you can convince voters that Joe biden of all people is a socialist
than you can do that to any Dem no matter how anti woke they are....

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Yeah, I don't think we're going to have a winner announced until at least next week.

[Inmate Trump]

Do we have any idea when we are likely to get PA's votes in? Just begging for the election to be called so I can get back to a normal life and not checking my phone every 5 minutes!

Welcome to the forum.

And yea, I wish I knew when we'd get a more worthwhile vote count come in.  It's taking forever.

[Badger]

Trumpists including Ljube embarrass themselves by repeating their God Emperor's whining over fraud. Where is the proof? Where is the evidence? Accept the fact he's on the edge of losing.

Not a Trumpist and you know it.

The entirety of your post history would imply otherwise aNd YoU kNoW iT.

Do you see me shedding a tear for Trump?

That merely shows you haven't quite reached the depression stage of grief. Sounds like you're still in bargaining and / or denial

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hot take: NV is drawing out the count so that people get the impression it's more competitive than PA and GA.

[The Free North]

If Biden wins Georgia. Stacy Abrams needs to be the chair of the DNC cause whatever she doing she's doing it right.

Lol

She lost her own election and hasnt done anything of note since. Biden won Georgia because Trump is a lemming. They're going to lose both senate seats in a moth or so anyways.

[Inmate Trump]

OMG

Alicia Parlapiano, in Washington 6m ago

The registrar in Clark County (Las Vegas) said the county would release the next batch of votes around noon ET on Friday. Remaining votes include mail and provisional ballots.


are you kidding me? it should not take 24 hours to count another batch

oh ffs

It's a good thing that we will probably get GA and PA to end the election today so we don't have to care.

But will they?

I thought I read somewhere that both states were now saying they won't know anything today?  Maybe I'm remembering wrong.

[Badger]

This thread explains pretty well why Trump probably can’t win AZ:

https://twitter.com/djquinlan/status/1324428554403110913?s=20

I'm still nervous. Isn't he tracking almost exactly on what he needs to win it?

Not good enough. If I'm not mistaken a lot of the remaining ballots are from Gallego's district (i.e. more Dem than Maricopa). Trump probably wants to be overperforming in Maricopa to make room for those ballots being more disappointing.

He needs 57% of the remaining vote and he seems to be tracking on or ahead of that.

(sigh) again, reread the thread. He explains how the most recent batch of votes for reasonably expected to be Trump friendly, but we're almost through those.

I'm going to take you off ignore now after you're election night broken record meltdown. Please don't make me regret it

[brucejoel99]

Trumpists including Ljube embarrass themselves by repeating their God Emperor's whining over fraud. Where is the proof? Where is the evidence? Accept the fact he's on the edge of losing.

Not a Trumpist and you know it.

The entirety of your post history would imply otherwise aNd YoU kNoW iT.

Do you see me shedding a tear for Trump?

Yes. Quite a few:

Joe is at 488K in Philly. There is *at minimum* 100K left to at least *report* in Philly.

This will be the most important message of the Trump 2024 campaign. Biden stole the election. He was a do nothing President who spent his term hiding in the basement.

Can Trump win Michigan?
That would save us all.

This has been the best 4 year period of my life and I’ve grown nothing but more liberal in that time. I’m now on path to have a very lucrative career in a few years here. I’m not going to let a few percentages on a tax bill ruin this country for everyone else.

Just wait and see what Biden's policies will do to this country.

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1323757221784641537?s=20

I'm doing much better than I was four years ago. Still voted Biden.

Yup. I’m doing better thanks in no part to Trump.

But you will be doing worse, thanks exclusively to Biden.

50% of voters chose coronavirus, racial issues and health care policy as their priorities. Not bad for Dems

Bad for Trump.

By the way, these voters will be the first who will be laid off in a Biden recession.

Or in a Trump recession.

There won't be a Trump recessions, partly because Trump is going to lose. But you can bet on a Biden recession.

There already is a Trump recession

It is not a Trump recession. It is a Biden recession.
Had Trump been re-elected, the economy would have rebounded like never before.

Wtf?

Biden has as much control over what's going on as you or me. Also why hasn't the economy rebounded like never before already?

He has control through useless Dem Governors and he was considered almost inevitable for the last couple of months.

From CNN: early exit polls:

What's more important?:

contain coronavirus 52%
rebuild the economy 42%

There's your ballgame.

Goes to show that the majority of people are stupid.

Unfortunately, it looks like Trump will lose the election. What a sad day for the world.

Sad!

Not sad for me...

Very sad.