2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[philly09]

Suburb Philly shift in PA with mostly completed:

Montgomery County
2016: Hillary +21.3
2020: Biden +26.0

Chester County
2016: Hillary +9.4
2020: Biden +16.6

I am just astounded by that Chester margin. Such a former GOP stronghold.

[wbrocks67]

Will we know today?

PA SOS said she expects majority of PA counting to be done today, at least

[Omega21]

That's because the Fulton County website administrators wisely decided to do what some people here should - go home and get some sleep.

Nah man. The richest country in the world could've afforded 3 shifts to count 24/7.

This is just lazy.

[wbrocks67]

Suburb Philly shift in PA with mostly completed:

Montgomery County
2016: Hillary +21.3
2020: Biden +26.0

Chester County
2016: Hillary +9.4
2020: Biden +16.6

I am just astounded by that Chester margin. Such a former GOP stronghold.

Insane ticket splitting though. Houlahan still won by 10, but that's nearly half of her 2018 margin. It might've been a lot more Rs coming out this year than in 2018, but given Biden's margin, it also appears a good chunk still voted R downballot with Biden at the top, frustratingly enough

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Is there any update from Arizona? Do we know where the outstanding votes are from?

Most are very Trump favorable Maricopa ballots, scattered amounts from random counties and I guess a tiny bit from Biden friendly Pima county

This is not true. Stop spreading false information. No wonder people have you on ignore.

Last night's batches were supposed to be more favorable for Trump. The batches coming forward appear to get more Indie-heavy. Biden won Indies in AZ, so, would seem to be a bit better for him.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324257077074698240

When was the last time MI and PA voted differently? They are both Rust Belt sister states and them voting differently this year seems unlikely.

[philly09]

Bob Casey says over 400,000 votes outstanding. Mostly in Philly and Alllegheny County, and we haven't gotten the full Philly numbers. He claims the Philly number alone could put him over the top.

[wbrocks67]

If there is 60K out in GA, or even 50K if you take out this mornings update, Biden would still likely inch ahead by a tiny bit.

[Podgy the Bear]

Is there any update from Arizona? Do we know where the outstanding votes are from?

Most are very Trump favorable Maricopa ballots, scattered amounts from random counties and I guess a tiny bit from Biden friendly Pima county

This is not true. Stop spreading false information. No wonder people have you on ignore.

Last night's batches were supposed to be more favorable for Trump. The batches coming forward appear to get more Indie-heavy. Biden won Indies in AZ, so, would seem to be a bit better for him.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324257077074698240

When was the last time MI and PA voted differently? They are both Rust Belt sister states and them voting differently this year seems unlikely.

1940.  MI and PA have tracked identically for 80 years.  And it will be the same this year.

[wbrocks67]

Suburb Philly shift in PA with mostly completed:

Montgomery County
2016: Hillary +21.3
2020: Biden +26.0

Chester County
2016: Hillary +9.4
2020: Biden +16.6

And Trump seems to have overperformed his 2016 margins almost nowhere, correct?

Yeah, theres quites a bit of red counties where he's even down from his 2016 #s. At best in some super red counties he's just holding steady with 2016, which isn't good enough since they are smaller.

[Brittain33]

Suburb Philly shift in PA with mostly completed:

Montgomery County
2016: Hillary +21.3
2020: Biden +26.0

Chester County
2016: Hillary +9.4
2020: Biden +16.6

And Trump seems to have overperformed his 2016 margins almost nowhere, correct?

The bottom line here is that for Trump to win Pennsylvania, he’d have to maintain or overperform his 2016 results. To my knowledge he hasn’t done that in any state that doesn’t have a county named “Miami-Dade” in it. We also know that unlike Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump already ran up his rural numbers in 2016... not saying they didn’t go further, but it was a higher starting point than in those states.

[Brittain33]

Suburb Philly shift in PA with mostly completed:

Montgomery County
2016: Hillary +21.3
2020: Biden +26.0

Chester County
2016: Hillary +9.4
2020: Biden +16.6

I am just astounded by that Chester margin. Such a former GOP stronghold.

Insane ticket splitting though. Houlahan still won by 10, but that's nearly half of her 2018 margin. It might've been a lot more Rs coming out this year than in 2018, but given Biden's margin, it also appears a good chunk still voted R downballot with Biden at the top, frustratingly enough

Yeah, we knew that would happen eventually but I was hoping not until 2022.

[forza nocta]

When’s the earliest that Biden could take the lead in PA? This afternoon?

[wbrocks67]

Bob Casey says over 400,000 votes outstanding. Mostly in Philly and Alllegheny County, and we haven't gotten the full Philly numbers. He claims the Philly number alone could him over the top.

Yep. There is at the very least 120K out in Philly, possibly more. Biden is currently about ~130K below Hillary's margin, and there's no way Philly turnout was lower than 2016 IMO. So we may be looking at like ~150K out in Philly. Also again, there could be votes that have been *processed* but not *reported*, so that 120K figure could just be ones that have left to still be *counted* AND *processed*

[philly09]

Bob Casey says over 400,000 votes outstanding. Mostly in Philly and Alllegheny County, and we haven't gotten the full Philly numbers. He claims the Philly number alone could him over the top.

Yep. There is at the very least 120K out in Philly, possibly more. Biden is currently about ~130K below Hillary's margin, and there's no way Philly turnout was lower than 2016 IMO. So we may be looking at like ~150K out in Philly. Also again, there could be votes that have been *processed* but not *reported*, so that 120K figure could just be ones that have left to still be *counted* AND *processed*

And if Philly doesn't do it, the burbs will.

[DaleCooper]

If Casey thinks that Biden could potentially be ahead with the Philly votes alone, unless he's including suburban counties, then there has to be much more than 120k votes to count there, I would think.

[philly09]

If Casey thinks that Biden could potentially be ahead with the Philly votes alone, unless he's including suburban counties, then there has to be much more than 120k votes to count there, I would think.

He said there's at least 400,000 votes in SEPA alone.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/SammysWorld2/status/1324325620038459394

[wbrocks67]

Suburb Philly shift in PA with mostly completed:

Montgomery County
2016: Hillary +21.3
2020: Biden +26.0

Chester County
2016: Hillary +9.4
2020: Biden +16.6

And Trump seems to have overperformed his 2016 margins almost nowhere, correct?

The bottom line here is that for Trump to win Pennsylvania, he’d have to maintain or overperform his 2016 results. To my knowledge he hasn’t done that in any state that doesn’t have a county named “Miami-Dade” in it. We also know that unlike Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump already ran up his rural numbers in 2016... not saying they didn’t go further, but it was a higher starting point than in those states.

Yep this is key. Trump already juiced all he could out of rurals in 2016 basically, which wasn't necessarily the case in WI/MI. So now he has more to fall when the non-rurals go more Dem this year.

[DaleCooper]

If Casey thinks that Biden could potentially be ahead with the Philly votes alone, unless he's including suburban counties, then there has to be much more than 120k votes to count there, I would think.

He said there's at least 400,000 votes in SEPA alone.

I see, so that 450k votes must only refer to the uncounted votes, not unreported votes.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So uh...when exactly will we be off to the races this morning? PA said yesterday evening they'd be counting through the night but it doesn't look like they've actually done so?

[philly09]

So uh...when exactly will we be off to the races this morning? PA said yesterday evening they'd be counting through the night but it doesn't look like they've actually done so?

Per Bob Casey, the Philly numbers will be dropping at noon.

[Inmate Trump]

So uh...when exactly will we be off to the races this morning? PA said yesterday evening they'd be counting through the night but it doesn't look like they've actually done so?

Per Bob Casey, the Philly numbers will be dropping at noon.

And if those Philly numbers don't put Biden over the top, is there any hope left?

[DaleCooper]

So uh...when exactly will we be off to the races this morning? PA said yesterday evening they'd be counting through the night but it doesn't look like they've actually done so?

Per Bob Casey, the Philly numbers will be dropping at noon.

Is he sticking to his 100,000 lead prediction for Biden?

[philly09]

So uh...when exactly will we be off to the races this morning? PA said yesterday evening they'd be counting through the night but it doesn't look like they've actually done so?

Per Bob Casey, the Philly numbers will be dropping at noon.

Is he sticking to his 100,000 lead prediction for Biden?

Yes he is. Somewhere around there.

[philly09]

So uh...when exactly will we be off to the races this morning? PA said yesterday evening they'd be counting through the night but it doesn't look like they've actually done so?

Per Bob Casey, the Philly numbers will be dropping at noon.

And if those Philly numbers don't put Biden over the top, is there any hope left?

Allegheny County.