2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Dr. Arch]

Per CNN, 62K new Maricopa ballot count.

Biden: 912,585, 51%
Trump: 838,071, 47%

is this good?

Moves the needle to Trump a bit. If that keeps up, Trump will catch up in AZ. Dunno if it will though.

Don't forget that Cococino and Apache are still missing absentees, and those are deep blue counties.

[philly09]

Per CNN, 62K new Maricopa ballot count.

Biden: 912,585, 51%
Trump: 838,071, 47%

is this good?

It was the last update where Trump was expected to do better, and he netted only +11k. The rest is from reliably blue areas (like Gallego's district).

Not to mention Pima, Cochino, and Apache haven't finished.

[ꙮ]

I think its clear at this point that the AP and FOX called too early. They still could end up being correct, but this isn't a state you can be sure of at this point.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hmm, Trump probably had to outright win this batch if he really wanted to stay in the game...

[Dr. Arch]

Hmm, Trump probably had to outright win this batch if he really wanted to stay in the game...

Yep. I would call it now. CNN might do so soon.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

According to the Philadelphia county website, turnout was 51% and they’ve received a total of 233583
Mail votes with 97% counted.

https://results.philadelphiavotes.com/VoterTurnoutDetails.aspx?&cat=PREC

How is that possible?

What was expected?

I'd be skeptical of that 51%.

A paltry 63-64% turned out in Philadelphia during the 2016 election.  As Wasserman implied, it would be shocking if Philly's turnout was, say, thirty points less than Milwaukee's (which, if my Googling is correct, had around 84% turnout).  

[Pyro]

Per CNN, 62K new Maricopa ballot count.

Biden: 912,585, 51%
Trump: 838,071, 47%

is this good?

Moves the needle to Trump a bit. If that keeps up, Trump will catch up in AZ. Dunno if it will though.

Don't forget that Cococino and Apache are still missing absentees, and those are deep blue counties.

Ah, I see. That's good news, then!

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Now i can sleep little better tonight.

[Splash]

According to the Philadelphia county website, turnout was 51% and they’ve received a total of 233583
Mail votes with 97% counted.

https://results.philadelphiavotes.com/VoterTurnoutDetails.aspx?&cat=PREC

That only represents what's been reported so far. The 97% represents precincts reporting election day results and may or may not include absentee ballots. On their website, you can see that they've reported 234K absentee ballots but if you click on the "mail-in and absentee ballots status report" you will see that they recorded 346K AVs as of 11/2.

In other words, there are a lot of votes that haven't been added and that's deflating their turnout figures.

[Non Swing Voter]

Per CNN, 62K new Maricopa ballot count.

Biden: 912,585, 51%
Trump: 838,071, 47%

is this good?

It was the last update where Trump was expected to do better, and he netted only +11k. The rest is from reliably blue areas (like Gallego's district).

I thought the batches were based on the time they were received and not specific precincts or areas?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How heavily D are the Cococino absentees likely to be?

[emailking]

They only made a mistake if Trump wins. When you make the call, it includes the possibility that the margin could get razor thin, but that's it.

[n1240]

According to the Philadelphia county website, turnout was 51% and they’ve received a total of 233583
Mail votes with 97% counted.

https://results.philadelphiavotes.com/VoterTurnoutDetails.aspx?&cat=PREC

That only represents what's been reported so far. The 97% represents precincts reporting election day results and may or may not include absentee ballots. On their website, you can see that they've reported 234K absentee ballots but if you click on the "mail-in and absentee ballots status report" you will see that they recorded 346K AVs as of 11/2.

In other words, there are a lot of votes that haven't been added and that's deflating their turnout figures.

Yeah the 97% precincts is just eday precincts, not total vote lol, still at least 120k mail left.

[philly09]

This is the Kyrsten Sinema race redux. I remember all GOP'ers declaring victory for McSally, and then when Sinema won, their heads exploded.

[musicblind]

Hmm, Trump probably had to outright win this batch if he really wanted to stay in the game...

Yep. I would call it now. CNN might do so soon.

Nah, CNN is bearish on calling anything. ANYTHING.

[Stockdale for Veep]

Trump's benchmark for AZ is around 60% in each vote dump.

The Fox nerds knew it!

[chickentitilater]

According to the Philadelphia county website, turnout was 51% and they’ve received a total of 233583
Mail votes with 97% counted.

https://results.philadelphiavotes.com/VoterTurnoutDetails.aspx?&cat=PREC

That only represents what's been reported so far. The 97% represents precincts reporting election day results and may or may not include absentee ballots. On their website, you can see that they've reported 234K absentee ballots but if you click on the "mail-in and absentee ballots status report" you will see that they recorded 346K AVs as of 11/2.

In other words, there are a lot of votes that haven't been added and that's deflating their turnout figures.

Ah, okay. Im only smart enough to understood half of what you said but that was enough to calm me down

[DaleCooper]

51% in Philadelphia would be on par with the 2018 midterms, by the way. That seems absolutely impossible to me and if it were the case then we absolutely would not be hearing confidence from Biden's campaign and pessimism from Trump.

[Left Wing]

NYT has kept AZ turnout at 86% all day even though we've had several vote dumps

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

NYT has kept AZ turnout at 86% all day even though we've had several vote dumps

NYT is useless at this point tbh.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Fox's decision desk, being as professional as they are, would not have called Arizona so early on incomplete info. And we are seeing them be vindicated as we speak.

[DaleCooper]

If Fox or AP doesn't retract it's projection as these first batches of ballots come in then I doubt they will. If they had serious doubts then they surely wouldn't wait until Trump is gaining to change their call, one wouldn't think.

[Non Swing Voter]

Wasserman is right.  There's definitely more than 130k outstanding from Philly.  Maybe that's the current number but some votes that have already been "counted" haven't been released or something.

It's implausible that every other county in PA had higher turnout except Philly, the Democratic base, which would have been heavily targeted by Dems.  Also, it's unlikely the vote would be stagnant from 2016 numbers when Philadelphia, unlike some of the other cities like Detroit, is actually growing in population and has a lot more voters now.

[Non Swing Voter]

If Fox or AP doesn't retract it's projection as these first batches of ballots come in then I doubt they will. If they had serious doubts then they surely wouldn't wait until Trump is gaining to change their call, one wouldn't think.

They probably dont want to draw attention to it further.  They're just hoping Biden wins and then it's not an issue.

[philly09]

Fox's decision desk, being as professional as they are, would not have called Arizona so early on incomplete info. And we are seeing them be vindicated as we speak.

Not to mention defending their call by fighting on-air with a Trump campaign staffer.

It would be weird if both Fox and the AP called it back over 24 hours later.