2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

So does Gross actually still have a shot?

Hard to say, but I think the networks are making the right move by not calling the AK races.

Imagine Biden somehow won with Georgia and ALASKA. Would be a sufficiently bizarre end to such a crazy year.

Imagine if we end up with 51 Senators after the GA run-offs.

[GALeftist]

So does Gross actually still have a shot?

Hard to say, but I think the networks are making the right move by not calling the AK races.

Imagine Biden somehow won with Georgia and ALASKA. Would be a sufficiently bizarre end to such a crazy year.

Imagine if end up with 51 Senators after the GA run-offs.

My hope is that the 2020 curse has run out at that point.

[cvparty]

I've a question. Does anyone have a guess as to how many counties Biden won? Looking at the county map, it appears that Biden flipped about 15-20 Trump counties from 2016 nationwide, while Trump flipped about a dozen Clinton counties. Biden didn't come anywhere near to approaching Barack Obama's 2012 numbers, let alone his 2008 numbers.

Bumping this forward because I don't think it was seen.

biden was leading in 524 last time i checked. there's a roughly equal number of counties on both sides that will likely flip once outstanding votes come in, so it should stay in the 520-530 range

The counties Biden flipped are generally much larger suburban ones though.  So he's definitely improving on popular vote numbers overall.

i was referring to counties like lehigh, erie and bucks that are currently skewed to trump, but will go for biden once mail-ins are counted. and vice versa for counties like walla walla, placer, hunterdon that skew democratic right now.

in the end i'd expect there to be ~16 clinton-trump counties and ~54 trump-biden counties

[Asta]

Late in the game but I voted for Jorgensen. Can’t wait until we have a Republican candidate I feel good about supporting again.

Just random comment, but is it just me or does Atlas have over-representation of blue avatars and conservatives that are soft Trump supporters or NeverTrump people?

RINO Tom, ExtremeRepublican, DTC etc. come to mind, (Sorry if I missed anyone) and I've seen handful of blue avatars with Biden Harris endorsements. Just kind of amazing.

Roll Roons and Penn Quaker Girl are two others. But yes, they are definitely overrepresented on this forum, compared to the country at large. It's clear that the Lincoln Project failed in its objectives, and the Republican base-as we all knew-are firmly behind Trump. Trump apparently got 93% of the Republican vote in this election.

Without the project, Trump may have gotten 94-95%. Who knows? MI, WI, GA, NV and PA were all nail-biters. If it ended up convincing his supporter to vote for Jorgensen or Kanye, then that's all Biden really needed. I don't think it made much of a difference but it may have been enough to tip states like NV and GA.

[philly09]

Anybody know what happened with Will Hurd's seat in TX?

[Roll Roons]

Anybody know what happened with Will Hurd's seat in TX?

I guess it stayed R because of the rural Hispanic swing in the RGV. I really wish Will had run for reelection, because he would have won easily.

[New York En Marche!]

So does Gross actually still have a shot?

Hard to say, but I think the networks are making the right move by not calling the AK races.

Imagine Biden somehow won with Georgia and ALASKA. Would be a sufficiently bizarre end to such a crazy year.

Imagine if end up with 51 Senators after the GA run-offs.

My hope is that the 2020 curse has run out at that point.

Glad the runoffs are in January

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Biden up 16.5 in Chester co. PA

Was Clinton +9.4 in 2016.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

With 100% of precincts reporting, Trump carried Kleberg County, Texas, becoming the first Republican since George W. Bush to do so.

[Calthrina950]

I've a question. Does anyone have a guess as to how many counties Biden won? Looking at the county map, it appears that Biden flipped about 15-20 Trump counties from 2016 nationwide, while Trump flipped about a dozen Clinton counties. Biden didn't come anywhere near to approaching Barack Obama's 2012 numbers, let alone his 2008 numbers.

Bumping this forward because I don't think it was seen.

biden was leading in 524 last time i checked. there's a similar number of counties on both sides that will likely flip once outstanding votes come in, so it should stay in the 520-530 range

524? That would be an increase upon Hillary Clinton, who only won 490 last time around. But still, it's far short of the 693 counties that Obama carried in 2012 and the 875 that he won in 2008. That's a reflection of how intense geographic polarization has come. However, as was pointed out on here, Biden flipped several populous suburban counties, so that's helping him to pad his PV margins.

[Non Swing Voter]

Anybody know what happened with Will Hurd's seat in TX?

It's fascinating to me that Trump is on track to lose (and lose the popular vote fairly substantially) yet Democrats are doing terrible down ballot, not even winning easy pickups like this one.

[2952-0-0]

From the perspective of a supporter of Trump, the past 24 hours could not have been more horrifying.

Most of them were expecting a quick victory, allowing them to get ample and sound sleep. Many of them did.

Then they woke to the news that Wisconsin flipped due to black people in Milwaukee voting fraud, and then the news that 1.5 million almost entirely Democratic mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania seemingly came from thin air. Then came the flip in Michigan, caused by black people in Detroit more fraud. News from Georgia and Arizona depressed their spirits further.

If Biden won a 413 landslide on election night, it would have been the equivalent of a shot to the head. But this drawn-out turn of events was death by a thousand cuts. It was definitely much worse than how Democrats felt in 2016.

[Kuumo]

Anybody know what happened with Will Hurd's seat in TX?

Probably something similar to those weird pro-Trump swings in the Rio Grande Valley. The Republican candidate in TX-23 is even a Hispanic male.

[Rand]

Biden up 16.5 in Chester co. PA

Was Clinton +9.4 in 2016.

Incredible. Love to see it

[RI]

So does Gross actually still have a shot?

I think Gross would have to win about 2/3 of the VBM ballots to have a shot.

[OBD]

Anybody know what happened with Will Hurd's seat in TX?

Probably something similar to those weird pro-Trump swings in the Rio Grande Valley. The Republican candidate in TX-23 is even a Hispanic male.

Yup. Tony Gonzalez (i think his name is) won by 3 points.

[gardenofoden]

Anybody know what happened with Will Hurd's seat in TX?

Probably something similar to those weird pro-Trump swings in the Rio Grande Valley. The Republican candidate in TX-23 is even a Hispanic male.

Yup. Tony Gonzalez (i think his name is) won by 3 points.

Did you know that he used to play basketball?

[Rep Jessica]

Anybody know what happened with Will Hurd's seat in TX?

It's fascinating to me that Trump is on track to lose (and lose the popular vote fairly substantially) yet Democrats are doing terrible down ballot, not even winning easy pickups like this one.

Honestly, I believe a large percentage of republicans and people that are moderates that supported the down ticket just got tired of Trump. It is sad but probably the case.

[politics_king]

Anybody know what happened with Will Hurd's seat in TX?

Probably something similar to those weird pro-Trump swings in the Rio Grande Valley. The Republican candidate in TX-23 is even a Hispanic male.

Yup. Tony Gonzalez (i think his name is) won by 3 points.

I read that and thought you were talking about the Football Player lol

[GALeftist]

Anybody know what happened with Will Hurd's seat in TX?

It's fascinating to me that Trump is on track to lose (and lose the popular vote fairly substantially) yet Democrats are doing terrible down ballot, not even winning easy pickups like this one.

I've noticed that things are kind of polarized by state. Bordeaux actually flipped GA-7 here in Georgia, yet Democrats are whiffing big time in Texas, etc.

[OBD]

Anybody know what happened with Will Hurd's seat in TX?

Probably something similar to those weird pro-Trump swings in the Rio Grande Valley. The Republican candidate in TX-23 is even a Hispanic male.

Yup. Tony Gonzalez (i think his name is) won by 3 points.

I read that and thought you were talking about the Football Player lol

Anybody know what happened with Will Hurd's seat in TX?

Probably something similar to those weird pro-Trump swings in the Rio Grande Valley. The Republican candidate in TX-23 is even a Hispanic male.

Yup. Tony Gonzalez (i think his name is) won by 3 points.

Did you know that he used to play basketball?

Might have misremembered the name lol

Point still stands.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anybody know what happened with Will Hurd's seat in TX?

Probably something similar to those weird pro-Trump swings in the Rio Grande Valley. The Republican candidate in TX-23 is even a Hispanic male.

Yup. Tony Gonzalez (i think his name is) won by 3 points.

I read that and thought you were talking about the Football Player lol

He'd be the second Gonzalez in the House Republican Conference.

[philly09]

What was Dan Crenshaw's margin?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Late in the game but I voted for Jorgensen. Can’t wait until we have a Republican candidate I feel good about supporting again.

Don't worry, the Republican Party will be back to nominating a warmongerer who doesn't much care about people dying from lack of healthcare before you know it. He won't tweet too much so you'll all love him.

Being condescending like that is totally going to make me switch to red avatar and start voting for your preferred candidate.

Haha. Very funny.

If Republicans didn't budge an inch after Donald Trump's actions over the last four years, capped off by deliberately setting in motion the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Americans, they were never going to vote for anyone without an (R) after their name.

If there's one thing this election has made crystal clear: trying to appeal to Republicans is futile. Reason, decency, self-interest, the future, none of it matters a bit.

[Kuumo]

Anybody know what happened with Will Hurd's seat in TX?

Probably something similar to those weird pro-Trump swings in the Rio Grande Valley. The Republican candidate in TX-23 is even a Hispanic male.

Yup. Tony Gonzalez (i think his name is) won by 3 points.

I read that and thought you were talking about the Football Player lol

He'd be the second Gonzalez in the House Republican Conference.

Anthony Gonzalez (R-OH) is a former NFL player.