2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[DaleCooper]

CNN reminding us that PA features a "three-day grace period" for mail-in ballots to arrive post-Election Day.  (They'll undoubtedly be subjected to legal challenges, especially if the margin depends on them).  

Yeah, this is going to be important, especially since anything that comes will likely skew very Dem.

Are 1.4 million (give or take) absentee votes they're talking about all currently submitted, or does that include estimates of the 3-day grace period vote?

That's the thing - not sure. It doesn't appear if anyone knows if the 1.4 million total *right now* includes anything from the dropboxes, or anything that might show up in the next 3 days...

Actually, didn't we find out that the Pennsylvania Secretary of State ordered that all absentees that show up on or before election day be counted and kept separately as evidence that they were from before the grace period in case of litigation? I'm guessing that it doesn't include the late ballots for that reason. Also, how would they include them in their count if they don't know if they have them yet?

[Never Made it to Graceland]

I kind of hope Arizona saves the day so John McCain’s ghost gets to give one last F you to Trump.

Dude, just stop.

[Alben Barkley]

I kind of hope Arizona saves the day so John McCain’s ghost gets to give one last F you to Trump.

Yeah but I don’t wanna win with exactly 270. Increases the odds of instability after the election. More breathing room with a 300+ lead and a win in Georgia would be better.

[ultraviolet]

I kind of hope Arizona saves the day so John McCain’s ghost gets to give one last F you to Trump.

Dude, just stop.

Stop what

[n1240]

Yeah, speaking of what Dave said, do we have a list of completed counties in PA and their shift from 16?

For most part I defined counties as having greater than 100% of 2016 vote to be completed with a couple exceptions.



Basically Trump is doing roughly the same margin wise in rural areas on average while Biden is doing better in two pop centers (Dauphin and Lackawanna).  Turnout wise the rurals generally have a bit higher vote relative to 2016 compared to the two Biden counties, but it isn't really that different (Dauphin and Lackawanna are both about 8% higher, rurals about 10% higher on average).

[Storr]

DDHQ has Trump's lead in Michigan down to 9.5k votes.

[Kuumo]

Well, I'm back. I was glad to see that Biden had taken the lead in Wisconsin and seems to be on his way to taking the lead in Michigan.

[Inmate Trump]

I kind of hope Arizona saves the day so John McCain’s ghost gets to give one last F you to Trump.

Yeah but I don’t wanna win with exactly 270. Increases the odds of instability after the election. More breathing room with a 300+ lead and a win in Georgia would be better.

Something we both agree on

[Horus]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288

These numbers seem impossible

Only seems impossible if you can't admit that Dems  are losing Latino voters as they gradually assimilate into white America.

I have a feeling Democrats 50 years ago or whatever were feeling the exact same way when the always reliable Italian and Irish votes began to flip.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

I kind of hope Arizona saves the day so John McCain’s ghost gets to give one last F you to Trump.

Dude, just stop.

Stop what

If you're talking about a state to "save the day" in a now-symbolic presidential election after getting your ass handed to you in the Senate, you've already lost.

[Podgy the Bear]

I kind of hope Arizona saves the day so John McCain’s ghost gets to give one last F you to Trump.

Yeah but I don’t wanna win with exactly 270. Increases the odds of instability after the election. More breathing room with a 300+ lead and a win in Georgia would be better.

A win in GA (plus AZ) starts to solidify the Sun Belt strategy for the Democrats.  And I think that NC can come through as well.  Forget FL (and TX continues to be elusive).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well, I'm back. I was glad to see that Biden had taken the lead in Wisconsin and seems to be on his way to taking the lead in Michigan.

D's Crt packing plan is DOA, PR and DC aren't becoming states, NC, ME and IA are gone meaning an R majority

[ultraviolet]

I kind of hope Arizona saves the day so John McCain’s ghost gets to give one last F you to Trump.

Dude, just stop.

Stop what

If you're talking about a state to "save the day" in a now-symbolic presidential election after getting your ass handed to you in the Senate, you've already lost.

Lol not sure why you are so against a simple statement

[Podgy the Bear]

I kind of hope Arizona saves the day so John McCain’s ghost gets to give one last F you to Trump.

Dude, just stop.

Stop what

If you're talking about a state to "save the day" in a now-symbolic presidential election after getting your ass handed to you in the Senate, you've already lost.

Not true.  Democrats now have 48 (and if Collins goes down in ME, that's 49).  With two Senate runoffs in GA, we are at Ground Zero in January.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

I apologize for my hostility in this thread. I'm kinda jacked up on Lyrica and Xanax and tobacco and my mood has been going all over the place throughout the night. The loss of the Senate put me firmly on IDGAF mode.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So are there a ton of mail-ins left to be counted in NY as well? I can't imagine Trump carried Erie county.

[Alben Barkley]

I kind of hope Arizona saves the day so John McCain’s ghost gets to give one last F you to Trump.

Dude, just stop.

Stop what

If you're talking about a state to "save the day" in a now-symbolic presidential election after getting your ass handed to you in the Senate, you've already lost.

Why do you seem to be under the impression that the most powerful man in the world is merely “symbolic” and the Senate is the only thing that matters? Are you aware of what the president actually does and is responsible for? It’s pretty goddamned important. This COVID crisis alone is Exhibit A of how a president’s response to a crisis can make or break a nation, for example.

I swear, the way you talk it's like you think POTUS is just a “head of state” like the Queen of England or something instead of also head of government of the most powerful nation in the world, and Commander-in-Chief of its military and nuclear codes.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I think a lot of people got scared at Biden polling lead and started split ticketing.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

I kind of hope Arizona saves the day so John McCain’s ghost gets to give one last F you to Trump.

Dude, just stop.

Stop what

If you're talking about a state to "save the day" in a now-symbolic presidential election after getting your ass handed to you in the Senate, you've already lost.

Not true.  Democrats now have 48 (and if Collins goes down in ME, that's 49).  With two Senate runoffs in GA, we are at Ground Zero in January.

Isn't Collins winning handily in Maine? And why would you assume they'll win the runoffs? Much as I'd love to be proven wrong, I don't see it happening.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

On a personal note: just wanted to check in and make sure everybody is doing okay -- and I mean *everybody*.  

It's a super stressful time for all of us.  I'll repeat what I said before: if you're feeling physically ill, if you feel yourself panicking, if you didn't get enough sleep last night -- it's okay to turn off the TV, get away from your computer/phone screen, and go for a walk, take a nap, or just try your best to focus on other work.  

I'm not trained by any means, but if anybody needs to vent or you just want to chat to blow off steam, my inbox is always open.  

Please take care of yourselves, guys.  

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Not sure this was discussed, but Hawaii just dropped and its 64.3%-33.8% Biden. I was honestly expecting a weaker performance than 2016.

[The Free North]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288

These numbers seem impossible

Exit polls in GA and OH showed 20 point swins to the Republicans this time. Nevada was much closer than expected, the NM senate race was like a 4% shout and NM voted to the right of Colorado.

[Beet]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288

These numbers seem impossible

Only seems impossible if you can't admit that Dems  are losing Latino voters as they gradually assimilate into white America.

I have a feeling Democrats 50 years ago or whatever were feeling the exact same way when the always reliable Italian and Irish votes began to flip.

Except Latino voters are mixed race and generally look different than whites. This isn't about assimilation, this is about Trump being a good fit for Latino culture (and Black culture, where he relatively gained as well).

[BlueSwan]

I wonder how the trumpists here feel about Trump blatantly disregarding all democratic norms and possibly throwing the country into civil unrest by declaring victory and baselessly claiming voter fraud way before the crucial swing states were even near finished counting totally legitimate votes?

[WMS]

I kind of hope Arizona saves the day so John McCain’s ghost gets to give one last F you to Trump.

Yeah but I don’t wanna win with exactly 270. Increases the odds of instability after the election. More breathing room with a 300+ lead and a win in Georgia would be better.

Something we both agree on

Oh yes I hope for that too

And I was enjoying the potential scenario of McCain thwarting Trump one last time. Geez, chill Iggle.