2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 618521 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #5775 on: November 04, 2020, 08:06:23 AM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 04, 2020, 08:01:13 AM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 04, 2020, 07:59:48 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 04, 2020, 07:58:49 AM
Quote from: Dr. Frankenstein on November 04, 2020, 07:56:16 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 04, 2020, 07:52:40 AM
I dumped 50€ on Trump ending up with between 240-269 EV on a betting site.

For a reward of 450€.

Hopefully Biden does NOT win GA !

Biden winning back the Blue Wall is just fine.

It could work if Biden wins GA, but Trump somehow holds onto PA.

I would also cash in if Trump somehow wins AZ+NV, but Biden GA.

You can rule the last one out.

How is Georgia looking to you, GM?

See forsythvoter's analysis up the page, which looks sound to me.  It's still very close but I'd put a thumb on the scale for Biden, if (and it's a big IF) the outstanding vote breaks as expected.

By "rule the last one out", I meant Tender's last combination of R-AZ, R-NV, D-GA.  Biden has AZ in the bag.
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Blair
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« Reply #5776 on: November 04, 2020, 08:06:58 AM »
Quote from: xavier110 on November 04, 2020, 07:59:35 AM
Regardless of what happens with Biden, Pelosi and Schumer have got to go

Yeah a leadershipt team exclusively of 70+ year olds who've all been in D.C since 1980 is really not good after a night like this; I'm curious to see how the Senate/House campaigns get blamed. I'm generally of the view that the national figures drive this but it seems both Schumer & Pelosi were far too bullish
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #5777 on: November 04, 2020, 08:07:59 AM »
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Inmate Trump
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« Reply #5778 on: November 04, 2020, 08:10:00 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 04, 2020, 08:06:23 AM
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 04, 2020, 08:01:13 AM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on November 04, 2020, 07:59:48 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 04, 2020, 07:58:49 AM
Quote from: Dr. Frankenstein on November 04, 2020, 07:56:16 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 04, 2020, 07:52:40 AM
I dumped 50€ on Trump ending up with between 240-269 EV on a betting site.

For a reward of 450€.

Hopefully Biden does NOT win GA !

Biden winning back the Blue Wall is just fine.

It could work if Biden wins GA, but Trump somehow holds onto PA.

I would also cash in if Trump somehow wins AZ+NV, but Biden GA.

You can rule the last one out.

How is Georgia looking to you, GM?

See forsythvoter's analysis up the page, which looks sound to me.  It's still very close but I'd put a thumb on the scale for Biden, if (and it's a big IF) the outstanding vote breaks as expected.

By "rule the last one out", I meant Tender's last combination of R-AZ, R-NV, D-GA.  Biden has AZ in the bag.


Any idea when we might get more Georgia votes?
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n1240
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« Reply #5779 on: November 04, 2020, 08:10:48 AM »
Recent batch from Montgomery County (mail)

Biden 25857 (84.2%)
Trump 4792 (15.6%)

83k outstanding in the county
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #5780 on: November 04, 2020, 08:12:32 AM »
Quote from: n1240 on November 04, 2020, 08:10:48 AM
Recent batch from Montgomery County (mail)

Biden 25857 (84.2%)
Trump 4792 (15.6%)

83k outstanding in the county
These margins are insane
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Dr. Frankenstein
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« Reply #5781 on: November 04, 2020, 08:12:41 AM »
Quote from: n1240 on November 04, 2020, 08:10:48 AM
Recent batch from Montgomery County (mail)

Biden 25857 (84.2%)
Trump 4792 (15.6%)

83k outstanding in the county

Good percentage for Biden.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #5782 on: November 04, 2020, 08:12:44 AM »
Quote from: BlueSwan on November 04, 2020, 08:01:41 AM
Quote from: xavier110 on November 04, 2020, 07:59:35 AM
Regardless of what happens with Biden, Pelosi and Schumer have got to go
As much as I actually like Pelosi and Schumer myself, I wholeheartedly agree. We need a new generation of leaders now. It's high time.

Schumer should never have been the Dem leader in the Senate in the first place, but yes, absolutely essential that both need to get the hell out of the leadership.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5783 on: November 04, 2020, 08:13:21 AM »
Quote from: n1240 on November 04, 2020, 08:10:48 AM
Recent batch from Montgomery County (mail)

Biden 25857 (84.2%)
Trump 4792 (15.6%)

83k outstanding in the county

If that keeps up, Biden should net another ~70K at least out of Montco
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
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« Reply #5784 on: November 04, 2020, 08:13:35 AM »

I still more bearish on Trump today then yesterday. Yesterday, I'd give him ~5% to win, right now, perhaps, 10-15%, unlikely, but possible. And yesterday I'd say, GOP should be happy if Dems get "only" 51 in Senate.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #5785 on: November 04, 2020, 08:15:24 AM »
Dave Wasserman has come out of his 'cave':
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #5786 on: November 04, 2020, 08:15:45 AM »
Quote from: Dr. Frankenstein on November 04, 2020, 08:12:41 AM
Quote from: n1240 on November 04, 2020, 08:10:48 AM
Recent batch from Montgomery County (mail)

Biden 25857 (84.2%)
Trump 4792 (15.6%)

83k outstanding in the county

Good percentage for Biden.

Which is why it's looking more probable that Biden will win PA.  The mail in ballots have shown their power in WI and MI.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #5787 on: November 04, 2020, 08:16:58 AM »
Good morning, loves.
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philly09
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« Reply #5788 on: November 04, 2020, 08:17:02 AM »
Quote from: Georgia Democrat in 2020 on November 04, 2020, 08:15:45 AM
Quote from: Dr. Frankenstein on November 04, 2020, 08:12:41 AM
Quote from: n1240 on November 04, 2020, 08:10:48 AM
Recent batch from Montgomery County (mail)

Biden 25857 (84.2%)
Trump 4792 (15.6%)

83k outstanding in the county

Good percentage for Biden.

Which is why it's looking more probable that Biden will win PA.  The mail in ballots have shown their power in WI and MI.

Pretty sure he's referring to Montco, Indiana.
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Inmate Trump
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« Reply #5789 on: November 04, 2020, 08:17:37 AM »
Quote from: Silent Hunter on November 04, 2020, 08:15:24 AM
Dave Wasserman has come out of his 'cave':




I don't think polls will be trusted again anytime in the near future.
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Never Made it to Graceland
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« Reply #5790 on: November 04, 2020, 08:18:15 AM »
Quote from: darthpi thinks america is probably doomed sooner or later on November 04, 2020, 08:12:44 AM
Quote from: BlueSwan on November 04, 2020, 08:01:41 AM
Quote from: xavier110 on November 04, 2020, 07:59:35 AM
Regardless of what happens with Biden, Pelosi and Schumer have got to go
As much as I actually like Pelosi and Schumer myself, I wholeheartedly agree. We need a new generation of leaders now. It's high time.

Schumer should never have been the Dem leader in the Senate in the first place, but yes, absolutely essential that both need to get the hell out of the leadership.

Pelosi isn't leaving the speakership until she dies. They will see this as an electoral success because Biden narrowly won despite all evidence to the contrary. Schumer should probably go, the Senate election was an absolute disaster, but the party is just tone deaf enough that it probably won't happen.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #5791 on: November 04, 2020, 08:18:39 AM »
Quote from: The Trump Virus on November 04, 2020, 08:17:37 AM
Quote from: Silent Hunter on November 04, 2020, 08:15:24 AM
Dave Wasserman has come out of his 'cave':




I don't think polls will be trusted again anytime in the near future.

Clearly it is a combination of state-specific issues as well as polls struggling with presidential election years.
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« Reply #5792 on: November 04, 2020, 08:19:18 AM »
RIP polls: 1936-2020
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #5793 on: November 04, 2020, 08:19:32 AM »
So, Biden’s going to win WI and MI, isn’t he?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5794 on: November 04, 2020, 08:19:54 AM »
Yeah, speaking of what Dave said, do we have a list of completed counties in PA and their shift from 16?
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
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« Reply #5795 on: November 04, 2020, 08:20:09 AM »
Quote from: Silent Hunter on November 04, 2020, 08:15:24 AM
Dave Wasserman has come out of his 'cave':



There error will persist, while shaming of voters of "wrong" candidates by Media does.
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cp
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« Reply #5796 on: November 04, 2020, 08:20:18 AM »
Quote from: Alcibiades on November 04, 2020, 08:19:32 AM
So, Biden’s going to win WI and MI, isn’t he?

Yes, it does look that way at the moment.
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philly09
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« Reply #5797 on: November 04, 2020, 08:20:29 AM »
Quote from: Alcibiades on November 04, 2020, 08:19:32 AM
So, Biden’s going to win WI and MI, isn’t he?

He's 25,000 votes behind Trump in MI, but Detroit is being sluggish.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #5798 on: November 04, 2020, 08:20:37 AM »
Quote from: Alcibiades on November 04, 2020, 08:19:32 AM
So, Biden’s going to win WI and MI, isn’t he?

Yes.  I've seen enough.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5799 on: November 04, 2020, 08:20:43 AM »
Quote from: philly09 on November 04, 2020, 08:17:02 AM
Quote from: Georgia Democrat in 2020 on November 04, 2020, 08:15:45 AM
Quote from: Dr. Frankenstein on November 04, 2020, 08:12:41 AM
Quote from: n1240 on November 04, 2020, 08:10:48 AM
Recent batch from Montgomery County (mail)

Biden 25857 (84.2%)
Trump 4792 (15.6%)

83k outstanding in the county

Good percentage for Biden.

Which is why it's looking more probable that Biden will win PA.  The mail in ballots have shown their power in WI and MI.

Pretty sure he's referring to Montco, Indiana.

no, pretty sure Montco PA
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