2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[wbrocks67]

Can anyone TLDR on how much is out in GA and when its expected?

[Hindsight was 2020]

The weird thing is if everything breaks for Biden like it should win 307 or 322 which is respectable

[wbrocks67]

I'm more shocked about the house races tbh. It's almost as if the blue wave of 2018 didn't happen - where did all of those voters go? It's like they were mad and put Dems in charge and then totally reversed.

Or even Graham winning by 12 and Trump winning in South Carolina *more* than 2016? Like how?

Well I suppose that just like everywhere we're focused on, states like SC also have a sizeable VBM vote to count which will tighten the margins

Well true this is the question too. It feels like a ton of these states could end up falling in margins as VBM continues to get counted

[DaleCooper]

I don't want to jinx us, but if Trump is only 60,000 ahead in Michigan with 17% of mostly mail-in votes to count then Michigan shouldn't end up being all that terribly close.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Can anyone TLDR on how much is out in GA and when its expected?

8% according to NYT and it’s almost all Atlanta don’t know when it drops

[Podgy the Bear]

Biden is at 50.1% of the popular vote and with a fair amount out on the solid blue West Coast, he could easily clear 51%.

Estimated 15 million PV left to count with very few in red states.  Biden could easily reach 51 if not 52.  Would give him a 4-5 percent and 6-7 million vote lead.

[wbrocks67]

Youngs may also save PA, if exits are true. They're giving Biden a +35 margin, while Hillary only got like +10 in 2016. Exits would have to be pretty off then, giving Biden a narrow win.

[Blair]

Appreciate we might know but is there any news about the timeframe for Michigan?

I feel I can sit marginally more comfortable if I know that both Michigan & Wisconin have leads..

[President Johnson]

Biden is at 50.1% of the popular vote and with a fair amount out on the solid blue West Coast, he could easily clear 51%.

Further evidence the Electoral College must be abolished. It has shifted against Democrats even more so than in the Dubya era. Obama's 51-47% win over Romney translated into 332 Electoral votes. This time, Joe Biden is probably not getting 300. Heck, he could still lose with this.

Especially when you say in 2024, Kamala improves in Arizona and Georgia, but loses support in the Midwest. Then she could easily win by five or more and still fall short of 270. That's undemocratic.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

See y'all in the morning.

[Silent Hunter]

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1323949799738085378

Yup.  Per NYT, Trump's lead now down to 64,520. 

Why is it Wayne County when it should just be Detroit?

[Silent Hunter]

Biden is at 62% on Betfair:

https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/11/04/the-betting-at-1136-gmt-nov-4th-2020/

[President Johnson]

Interesting that in Germany, even right populists of the AfD criticize Trump for his premature call.

[wbrocks67]

The weird thing is if everything breaks for Biden like it should win 307 or 322 which is respectable

it would be interesting if NV, AZ, GA, MI, WI, and PA end up breaking for Biden and his win is pretty big with that. But that will all have to wait for retrospect

[Kalimantan]

Take the lead in MI and hold it in WI and he will be leading in enough places to be in front if/when the Republicans try and get the count suspended in the courts. Probably all that matters right now.

[n1240]

Can anyone TLDR on how much is out in GA and when its expected?

Biggest vote sinks are DeKalb with about 133k (in-person early + mail mix) and Fulton with 60k (mail). Houston missing all mail-in (about 20k). Chatham missing significant amount of mail-in (about 21k).

Some may report today, others could take an extra day or two.

[wbrocks67]

Biden is at 62% on Betfair:

https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/11/04/the-betting-at-1136-gmt-nov-4th-2020/

this is surprising. the markets have been bearish on Biden since the getgo

[DaleCooper]

What's taking so long in Green Bay? What should we expect from them? They seem to be the only place that we haven't gotten any idea of yet in terms of results.

[philly09]

What's taking so long in Green Bay? What should we expect from them? They seem to be the only place that we haven't gotten any idea of yet in terms of results.

I heard the results will be released this afternoon.

[wbrocks67]

Montco PA still has at least 90K mail in ballots out, and those could be like 90-10 Biden judging by the first batch last night.

[Skye]

Well this has been a rollercoaster.

[Platypus]

So I realize it's probably too early to tell, but for the information we have this far is this largely a repeat up 2016 where polls orc wrong necessarily, but rather undecideds broke overwhelmingly for Trump? The difference here of course being that whereas Hillary was in the high forties both nationally and in crucial swing States, Biden was right about 50% which allowed him to squeak out narrow wins in the EV?

This feels like a very astute bit of analysis.

[VAR]

Rs lead in House Popular Vote by 0.2%.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

It's obviously not a consequential region or a consequential state, but I took a deep dive into the Eastern shore of Maryland on NYT's map.  For those unfamiliar, the Eastern shore is a large swath of salt-marsh and rural regions that votes heavily Republican compared to the state at large.  Since 2000, only two Eastern shore counties have given their votes to a Democratic Presidential election:  Somerset for Gore (2000) and Kent for Obama (2008).  

With 83% of the vote in, Biden trails Trump by 3.3% (9,662 to 9,046) in Talbot County.  This Eastern Shore county voted for Trump by 10.08% (2,071) in 2016.  

Overall, though, it looks like the Eastern shore followed along with a majority of the country's rurals:  non-negligible movement to Trump and some incremental movement towards Biden (vs. Hillary).  

[Skye]

Does somebody know what's happening in Geneese County, Michigan? It says 98% in and Trump winning by 0.2, and that would strike me as a very odd result.