2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/TimAlberta/status/1323927266808762369

Please God let it be

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I went to bed at 11AM, all but assuming Trump was going to win. Literally went through the five stages of grief.

Waking up to a early morning break towards Biden with narrow margins is something else. This election night seemed designed to stress as many people as possible regardless of party affiliation. I don't see how you all-nighter folk could do it.

I've been awake since 11 am yesterday. I've been optimistic all night. But I've also been absorbed in 538 and been data-driven to a large extent.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

So Trump still favored but Wisconsin gives Biden a fighting chance is what I'm gathering?

Biden is obviously favored. He can easily do what he just did in Wisconsin in Michigan, needs less than 60% of remaining mail votes. And he may be able to do it in GA too. Never mind PA. Trump needs to sweep them all and the odds of that are not good given the math.

Again, being able to do basic math has its advantages over relying on your feelings for everything.

You are conveniently ignoring Nevada.

You mean how most of the outstanding vote is in Clark?

[Pick Up the Phone]

Even if Biden wins WI and MI, it seems PA and NV are lost causes.

There are also not enough votes left for him in GA or NC, right ?

Why is NV a lost cause at this point? Biden’s clearly favored there.

[forsythvoter]

I'm still doing the calculations, but it's starting to look like the votes are there in MI for a Biden win assuming Biden can replicate Hillary's margins in Wayne...more to come

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Even if Biden wins WI and MI, it seems PA and NV are lost causes.

As I see it, Clark County in Nevada has only 75% counted, while most rurals are almost done. I'd be surprised if it goes to Trump. But the underperformance among Hispanics needs closer examination in the months to come, even if Joe pulls it out. It's definitely not satisfying.

Pennsylvania has still over a million ballots to be counted. Also, if Wisconsin goes blue, Michigan or Georgia would be enough to get Uncle Joe over the finishline.

Indeed.  This goes without saying, but Clark County's population - COVID or not - makes it incredibly difficult for the GOP to win statewide barring low turnout or a particularly good cycle for them.

[Alben Barkley]

So Trump still favored but Wisconsin gives Biden a fighting chance is what I'm gathering?

Biden is obviously favored. He can easily do what he just did in Wisconsin in Michigan, needs less than 60% of remaining mail votes. And he may be able to do it in GA too. Never mind PA. Trump needs to sweep them all and the odds of that are not good given the math.

Again, being able to do basic math has its advantages over relying on your feelings for everything.

You are conveniently ignoring Nevada.

I’m not ignoring it. It’s just not relevant because there is no chance Biden loses Nevada. It may end up closer than expected, more like a 2016 margin, but given the outstanding vote there is simply no realistic path for Trump to win it.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1323927826744168449

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/TimAlberta/status/1323927266808762369

Please God let it be

DDHQ has Trump at 50.07%, so Michigan is definitely tightening.

[Hope For A New Era]

Did we ever get results for NE-02?

[Alben Barkley]

Did we ever get results for NE-02?

AP called it for Joe.

[Gren]

Biden is, I think, also winning MI.

Swing in Washtenaw (already 98% in): Biden +5
Oakland is having a Biden +4 swing, but it could increase because there are still absentees to count.
Marquette, up in the Upper Peninsula, is Biden +7.
Saginaw, Biden +1,5

Kalamazoo already looking good, with 20% still pending. Same for Kent (29% pending) or even Wayne (57% pending). Biden still behind Clinton in all of these, but with some much room for growth from uber-blue absentees.

PS: Rural areas are not swinging hard to Trump.

[politics_king]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1323927826744168449

Sweet baby, Jesus. He's going to pull it off. I'm confident in Georgia now too with these trends. Interested in what votes have to come in from North Carolina.

[Pulaski]

Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada all look decent for Biden. That’ll be enough.

[Stuart98]

Looks like both Biden and Peters should be fine in MI. Much more of a close shave than it should have been though.

[ibagli]

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1323926165590052864

[Hope For A New Era]

Did we ever get results for NE-02?

AP called it for Joe.

Margin?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1323926165590052864

What's the worst case scenario in regards to how Green Bay votes?

[soundchaser]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1323927826744168449

Sweet baby, Jesus. He's going to pull it off. I'm confident in Georgia now too with these trends. Interested in what votes have to come in from North Carolina.

If Biden somehow manages the 306 map after all of this I’ll be thrilled, but we really should have known hours ago.

[forsythvoter]

Hey folks, Biden is going to win MI and it's not even going to be all that close. He's only down 70k right now, with only an 87K margin out of Wayne (Hillary won by 250K plus). Detroit alone is going to give Biden a lead.

[Badger]

Looks like both Biden and Peters should be fine in MI. Much more of a close shave than it should have been though.

But PA.....?

[politics_king]

Biden is only up a little under 10k in Wisconsin. We'll see what happens.

[soundchaser]

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1323926165590052864

We had an issue with the printer on one of our machines too...I was stuck at the precinct for an extra hour because I had to sign *one* receipt that wouldn’t print.

America’s election infrastructure remains terrible.

[VBM]

People underestimate Democrats chances in 2022. Suburbanites are more important in midterms than presidential elections because there’s a lot of low info WWC voters who only vote when the president is on the ballot. So a lot of those low info Trumpists won’t come out to vote in 2022

[JerryArkansas]

Biden is only up a little under 10k in Wisconsin. We'll see what happens.

Thats not counting the absentees out of Kenosha, which Biden won by 9 thousand.