2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Alben Barkley]

It’s coming.

https://twitter.com/MegJonesJS/status/1323917549000663041?s=20

[westcoaster]

One thing that has really caught my attention is how strongly Trump is performing in the popular vote. When the dust has settled, he’s likely to have received at least 10 million more votes than in 2016 and he is almost guaranteed to have increased his vote share, which runs contrary to the assumption that he was failing to expand his base.

Yeah, it frankly seems insane. Who the hell are these millions of people who didn't vote for Trump in 2016 but now suddenly love him. It really makes no sense at all.

Latinos, the Dems left an opening that nobody noticed until it was (almost) too late.

[It’s so Joever]

It’s coming.

https://twitter.com/MegJonesJS/status/1323917549000663041?s=20

It won’t be enough.

[politics_king]

http://

It’s coming.

https://twitter.com/MegJonesJS/status/1323917549000663041?s=20

This is it basically.

[NOVA Green]

Thank you, Southron Appalachian Whites! Very Cool!

Pretty Cool... can you just explain what we are looking at exactly by %?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

It’s coming.

https://twitter.com/MegJonesJS/status/1323917549000663041?s=20

These people just keep pushing back the time the vote totals will be updated. They’d be up “in an hour” 3 hours ago.

[musicblind]

A 50-50 Senate at least isn't entirely impossible, if Democrats have a lot of good luck.

How so?

[Angasboy15]

Within 30 minutes for the Milwaukee drop.

HERE WE GO

I can't watch.

[Vespucci]

A 50-50 Senate at least isn't entirely impossible, if Democrats have a lot of good luck.

How so?

Maine and one of the GA runoffs, or both GA runoffs.

[gf20202]

Biden about to net 9k before the Milwaukee vote dump.

Cassidy Williams
@CassidyWtv
BREAKING: after all three machines tabulated

19,700- Biden
10,103-Trump

The absentee ballots in Kenosha are not enough to take over the county for Biden. Final results should be on the county website soon

[Alben Barkley]

WI and MI are now Biden's clear path to 272, even without GA or PA. But Biden needs some big clumps of votes to come his way to win GA and PA at this late stage.

WI - Biden down by 107,000 (84% counted)

Of the remaining 563,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 335,000 of them. (59.5%)

MI - Biden down by 239,360 (76% counted)

Of the remaining 1,333,618 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 786,500 of them. (58.9%)

GA - Biden down by 102,134 (92% counted)

Of the remaining 406,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 254,000 of them. (62.6%)

PA - Biden down by 677,988 (74% counted)

Of the remaining 1,850,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 1,257,000 of them. (67.8%)

Biden needs to win 2 of the above 4 scenarios to win.

Considering where the GA vote is and how well he’s doing in the PA mail vote, they aren’t out of reach. But yeah MI and WI look a bit better I guess.

[It’s so Joever]

Guys it’s over, can we stop pretending America isn’t a s**thole?

[Pericles]

A 50-50 Senate at least isn't entirely impossible, if Democrats have a lot of good luck.

How so?

Win both GA seats (presuming Perdue's seat goes to a runoff and Biden wins the state) and MI. Looks like ME and NC are just out of reach though. However I am prepared for a big blue shift.

[politics_king]

Biden about to net 9k before the Milwaukee vote dump.

Cassidy Williams
@CassidyWtv
BREAKING: after all three machines tabulated

19,700- Biden
10,103-Trump

The absentee ballots in Kenosha are not enough to take over the county for Biden. Final results should be on the county website soon

Ugh...

[Splash]

Livingston County (exurban Detroit) went from Trump +29 to Trump +18.

It's just hard to envision Trump winning Michigan unless Detroit punches below its weight.

Its now Trump +22

Is no one else noticing the fact that 95% is in Gennesee county and Trump is winning it!? This was a double digit Clinton county and it was 62% obama!

The City of Flint hasn't reported out any of their absentee ballots, even with this latest update. And for that matter, the City of Saginaw is at only 50% reporting. I half expect the county to flip once it's updated. We'll see.

[Calthrina950]

Just a very weird and disappointing election overall. Biden seemingly doing worse than Clinton in many working-class areas ranging from Youngstown to the Rio Grande Valley despite an admirable recovery in the Iron Range and New England. Even the denser white working class suburbs which I had thought were more winnable (Macomb, Long Island, Staten Island) have swung massively towards Trump with him currently leading in Nassau. Blue Dog Democrats like Bullock, Peterson, Torres-Small lost their races. A Democratic Senate looks increasingly unlikely and its clear that the dominant narrative will be that Trump defied the polls yet again even if Biden pulls through on the outstanding absentee ballots in the Rust Belt trio. Any semblance of moral victory against Trumpism or of a decisive electoral defeat for the GOP has been lost. At best, Biden will preside over a replay of Obama's second term with all the potential for midterm disaster and a rerun of Trumpism in 2024 that it entails.

I hate saying this, but I actually want Trump to win at this point. A Biden Presidency with a Republican Senate and an underwhelming electoral mandate would usher in a revival of Trumpism in 2024-with a banner carried by a more electorally formidable and "relatable" Republican candidate such as Hawley or DeSantis. Trump winning this year would give Democrats a fighting chance at a decent midterm in 2022 and the White House in 2024.

Just no. Another four years of Trump will be absolutely horrible, give us a 7-2 supreme court, more relentless attacks on democratic institutions and lead to absolute apathy amongst democratic voters, especially after this election result.

It's a choice between two evils for many. Biden's agenda will be blocked by McConnell, and Republicans would be poised to regain control of the House in 2022, ridding off anti-Biden backlash. Recent political history shows us that such an outcome is very possible.

Remember that IF Trump loses, we don't know what state the republican party will be in. They could be deeply split between those who wants more Trump and those who cannot get away from Trumpism fast enough. I have been anticipating that struggle and it is devastating to see that Trumpism may have prevailed in this election.

I disagree with you. Trump's base is fired up, and there can be no doubt after this Election Night that they now comprise the dominant element in the Republican Party. People like Hawley and DeSantis are the rising stars in the Party. They are in Trump's mold, and will be able to more effectively communicate his agenda then he can, in a way that will appeal to minority and working class voters.

[gf20202]

Nate strafing over what I just posted:

A Nate Silver retweet with an added thought:
Biden now behind like 98k after Kenosha absentees counties.

The thing is, these Milwaukee absentees are likely to be VERY blue. They are *city*, not county, absentees. And absentee ballots were thought to be quite a bit bluer than the e-day vote in Wisconsin.

Ryan Matsumoto
@ryanmatsumoto1
 ·
169,341 early/absentee ballots yet to be counted from Milwaukee.

Biden is down 107k in Wisconsin right now.

Biden net gains if Milwaukee ballots break:
90% Biden: 135k
85% Biden: 119k
80% Biden: 102k
75% Biden: 85k
70% Biden: 68k
65% Biden: 51k
60% Biden: 34k

#Election2020

[ObamaMichael]

What is happening in Nevada? Should we be worried about that?

[President Johnson]

Why are Biden and Lujan underperforming in New Mexico? Colorado has voted to the left in both races. That's kinda weird.

[politics_king]

Nate strafing over what I just posted:

A Nate Silver retweet with an added thought:
Biden now behind like 98k after Kenosha absentees counties.

The thing is, these Milwaukee absentees are likely to be VERY blue. They are *city*, not county, absentees. And absentee ballots were thought to be quite a bit bluer than the e-day vote in Wisconsin.

Ryan Matsumoto
@ryanmatsumoto1
 ·
169,341 early/absentee ballots yet to be counted from Milwaukee.

Biden is down 107k in Wisconsin right now.

Biden net gains if Milwaukee ballots break:
90% Biden: 135k
85% Biden: 119k
80% Biden: 102k
75% Biden: 85k
70% Biden: 68k
65% Biden: 51k
60% Biden: 34k

#Election2020

Nate Silver better start looking for a new gig.

[Storr]

A 50-50 Senate at least isn't entirely impossible, if Democrats have a lot of good luck.

How so?

Win both GA seats (presuming Perdue's seat goes to a runoff and Biden wins the state) and MI. Looks like ME and NC are just out of reach though. However I am prepared for a big blue shift.

I know it's a huge reach, but I'm hoping the rest of the 1/3 (CNN has it at 66% in) of the Maine vote favors Gideon plus RCV gets her over the top.

And yes I'm still up. I saw the Milwaukee 100% in 30 minutes tweet (I'm pretty sure they said that 3 hours ago) and now I doubt I'll be able to sleep.

[Calthrina950]

Why are Biden and Lujan underperforming in New Mexico? Colorado has voted to the left in both races. That's kinda weird.

The overall Hispanic swing to Trump that was seen in Florida and Texas, and to a lesser extent in Nevada.

[Alben Barkley]

Why are Biden and Lujan underperforming in New Mexico? Colorado has voted to the left in both races. That's kinda weird.

Hispanic problems across the board it seems.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Biden about to net 9k before the Milwaukee vote dump.

Cassidy Williams
@CassidyWtv
BREAKING: after all three machines tabulated

19,700- Biden
10,103-Trump

The absentee ballots in Kenosha are not enough to take over the county for Biden. Final results should be on the county website soon

I'd prefer a stronger swing, but this is good enough.

[gf20202]

Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn

Based on my replies, I don't think people have fully internalized how Democratic these mail and absentee ballots will be in MI/PA/WI. It's going to be close, but these ballots will be overwhelmingly Democratic

That's been my read.