2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[justfollowingtheelections]

I haven't been here in years.  What are the chances that the Democrats win 53/53 House seats in California?

Very slim. LaMalfa and McCarthy will definitely hold on.

We shall see.  Both of them have a single digit lead, and in 2018, Republicans that were ahead by that little on election night ended up losing.  But even if you are right, 51-2 would be amazing.

[͘]

At this point, given how this night has shaped up, I almost don't want Biden to win anymore.  Not like this, clawing and scraping for every last electoral vote to get him to 270.   

Doom big and Doom hard.

[forza nocta]

Why is MI and WI diverging (or so it seems as of right now) so much from MN and NH? Those states don't typically vote to far off

[forsythvoter]

There's still 28% of Fulton (Biden +176K right now), 61% of DeKalb (Biden +106K right now), 16% of Clayton out (Biden +73K). Plus 20%+ of Cobb and Gwinnett (Both Biden 40K+).

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1323869244707250176?s=20

[Alben Barkley]

MN potentially voting substantially to the left of MI, WI and PA is surprising.

I don’t think it’s going to, in fact Biden’s lead there is one of the things that makes me quite confident he’ll win the trifecta. MN will be to the left of them but probably not by a HUGE amount in the end.

[Fargobison]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1323869860066172930

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Major vote drops to come in Fulton and DeKalb for GA.  Looks to be a big comeback for Biden.  The question is well it will be enough.

It looks like a pretty good chance that it should be enough, tbh. Dekalb County is 39% in according to the NYT estimates, and I would assume that what is in is election day vote (is that right?). With that 39% in there is a 106k Biden margin. Statewide Biden is behind by about 230k. So it seems quite plausible that DeKalb County alone may erase basically the entire Trump margin. And in addition to that, there are outstanding votes in Fulton, Clayton, Douglas, Cobb, Rockdale, and Gwinnett Counties which should provide additional margin for Biden and hopefully tip it to him.

[Meclazine for Israel]

WI - Biden on 47% (72% counted)
MI - Biden on 45% (58% counted)
PA - Biden on 42% (65% counted)

Biden's numbers have been growing.

Mathematically, Biden can still sweep the Rust Belt up here with late ballots.

PA is nearly underwater though.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Trump's Pennsylvania lead is looking insurmountable at this point  

....what.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

MN potentially voting substantially to the left of MI, WI and PA is surprising.

Wasn't it pretty well established that Minnesota was going to count its mail vote more quickly than MI/WI/PA? That might actually bode quite well for Biden making up the margin in the other states.

[UncleSam]

Trump flipped Mahoning county.

Honestly I am not convinced that Biden is going to win PA or WI. I do think he will win MI, and I definitely think he could win the other two. But Trump is winning massively in places he didn't even win in 2016.

Biden's whole thing was that he was going to re-flip these areas, and he is at best doing slightly better there. Where he's doing way better is in the West, Colorado and Arizona in particular.

[MasterJedi]

Santorum is thinking Trump is going to sweep everything lol

[Alcibiades]

So Biden has to win 2 of MI, WI, PA and GA. More likely than not, in my opinion.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

[Kuumo]

MN potentially voting substantially to the left of MI, WI and PA is surprising.

Minneapolis is a very different city than Detroit and Milwaukee. It's actually gaining population and has suburbs that are trending Democratic faster. It's almost like another Portland, OR in the middle of the Midwest.

[Frodo]

Biden could end up being very popular. And Americans seem to love divided government for some reason....

And then get frustrated when almost nothing gets accomplished, and wonder why.  

[The Free North]

Honestly it comes down to GA. If Biden wins, Trump has to win all 3 up north. If Trump wins GA, he only needs 2 which seems doable. No clue which two, i'd rather be Biden right now, but yikes.

[Calthrina950]

Trump flipped Mahoning county.

Honestly I am not convinced that Biden is going to win PA or WI. I do think he will win MI, and I definitely think he could win the other two. But Trump is winning massively in places he didn't even win in 2016.

Biden's whole thing was that he was going to re-flip these areas, and he is at best doing slightly better there. Where he's doing way better is in the West, Colorado and Arizona in particular.

I agree with this. As in 2016, Trump was underestimated, at least in these areas. Biden's hardly doing better than Hillary Clinton did in many of these places, and he still appears to be falling short in much of the Sunbelt, bar Arizona and Georgia.

[Alben Barkley]

Trump flipped Mahoning county.

Honestly I am not convinced that Biden is going to win PA or WI. I do think he will win MI, and I definitely think he could win the other two. But Trump is winning massively in places he didn't even win in 2016.

Biden's whole thing was that he was going to re-flip these areas, and he is at best doing slightly better there. Where he's doing way better is in the West, Colorado and Arizona in particular.

“Slightly better” would be enough

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Don't look at margins, look at raw votes. Biden's down by around 700K votes. If there's 2 million votes left to count, which I think is reasonable based on an assumption of higher turnout, he would have to win the outstanding vote, what, 67%-32%? I don't know if that's realistically possible or not, I guess it depends on how overwhelmingly the outstanding vote is in Philly, Montgomery, Chester, etc.

Isn't the vote that has yet to be counted basically all mail vote? If so I would expect it to be pretty lopsided for Biden.

Look at the map, where are the counties where Trump is improving significantly compared to 2016? I didn't really see any the last time I looked. But I saw quite a few fairly large counties like the Harrisburg and Scranton counties where Biden improved notably from what Clinton got with all or basically all the vote reported.

[2952-0-0]

NYT needle says Biden is back up to 62% chance in GA.

[GALeftist]

Can someone explain to me why everyone's being doomer on Biden still? Not much of Milwaukee is in, and I think a lot of Detroit is still out. This is underwhelming and shameful but probably still a win for Biden

[AncestralDemocrat.]

NM 02 flips.

https://twitter.com/KOBPatrickHayes/status/1323869708429324288?s=19

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

212-209 Trump.

[Hassan 2022]

NYT needle says Biden is back up to 62% chance in GA.

BYE DON!?!?!