2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Bootes Void]

According to Fox, Biden has a 90% chance of winning NC and Ohio. any info on this?
https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/state/ohio

[͘]

Never underestimate the stupidity, selfishness, and downright blindness of the American people.

Why do you say it like you hate democracy?

[South Dakota Democrat]

What's the deal here:
https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/probability-dials

I think their model is poor and doesn't know how to weight the different voting method splits in states like MI/WI.

[Pulaski]

I'm not feeling certain about Biden winning NC.

     NYT gives a 94% chance of Trump taking it, so that is probably a good idea.

Cool, Fox gives Biden a 95% chance of taking it so I guess Biden wins by 1%.

[RINO Tom]

Moral of the story:

People vote FOR something.

Not against something. 

Please. I'm not saying Democrats didn't run negative ads, but you cannot with a straight face argue that Biden campaign was fundamentally about voting for something as opposed to Trump's being almost entirely about the evil of the Socialist radicals taking over

Voting AGAINST something (i.e., against socialism) IS voting for something from a right wing perspective, though.  A left-leaning party can’t function as an “adult in the room” party with no bold message, IMO.

[vitoNova]

Moral of the story:

People vote FOR something.

Not against something. 

Load of nonsense. Name me one thing Trump actually campaigned for in this election. It was entirely "antifa, caravans, political correctness, BLM, protesters" ad nauseum

Race and religion mean everything in politics. 

[Associate Justice PiT]

NY times has Trump at a 95% chance in NC.

Tillis is up now. Republicans hold the senate unless Ernst flops.

     If Tillis holds on that is huge. He was one of the biggest targets for Dems this cycle.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

We going to talk about that Trump Rhode Island lead? LOL

I chalked that up to an extreme case of votes counted being different from votes not yet counted in regards to which candidate they favor.
I could be wrong though. And if so, I stand corrected.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1323822043012452357?s=20

[Calthrina950]

Even if Biden squeaks by with PA, WI, MI, tonight has been a real kick in the d.

Those polls showing Biden up by 10% were truly a mirage. He'll be lucky to win even by the 7-8% margin that I had predicted for him.

[JerryArkansas]

Oakland is now a tie at around 50% in.  Its getting better, but this is going to be a long fu cking week or two.

[RGM2609]

Still nothing from Vigo?

[ProudModerate2]

Once again (like 2016) at about this point in time, I find myself retreating our troops back to the fort for defense (the Blue Wall).
I hope it holds.
And I still hope AZ comes through for Biden.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I’m really depressed about the Senate right now, since it looks like Cunningham is going to lose and Dems are going to underperform in Georgia.

But there’s nothing at all right now to indicated that Biden isn’t still a big favorite to win the Presidency.  He was way ahead in the exit polls in Michigan and Wisconsin, strongly ahead in Arizona, and ahead by a slightly smaller margin in Pennsylvania.  If the the early Kansas results are any indication, he looks like very likely to win NE-02, so he only has to win AZ or PA to get to 270.

[Pulaski]

Moral of the story:

People vote FOR something.

Not against something. 

Load of nonsense. Name me one thing Trump actually campaigned for in this election. It was entirely "antifa, caravans, political correctness, BLM, protesters" ad nauseum

Race and religion mean everything in politics. 

This contradicts your earlier post though.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Per Jeremy Peters (NYT) on Michigan:

The incomplete Michigan results reflect a Trump advantage because the largest chunk is coming from Oakland County’s Election Day vote. Many more absentee votes are still out.

[Rep Jessica]

None of this makes any god-**** sense, but the vote totals are not lying.

I am a doomer now.

Violence and disrespect of peoples businesses and jobs aint welcome. It isn't going to solve any issue. I believe the police are trigger happy and we do need some reforms but when you chose violence I sided 100% with the law.

[Suburbia]

Moral of the story:

People vote FOR something.

Not against something.  

Load of nonsense. Name me one thing Trump actually campaigned for in this election. It was entirely "antifa, caravans, political correctness, BLM, protesters, COVID's not a big deal" ad nauseum

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto should eat Crow, Dems didn't win TX, he won't have any politicK future having blown TX

[Non Swing Voter]

Lots of new votes coming in in Virginia.  Massive swing towards Biden and he's now leading big everywhere in NOVA.

[ProudModerate2]

Even if Biden squeaks by with PA, WI, MI, tonight has been a real kick in the d.

Those polls showing Biden up by 10% were truly a mirage. He'll be lucky to win even by the 7-8% margin that I had predicted for him.

I agree.
They may be in the low single-digits (let's hope).

[Santander]

Never underestimate the stupidity, selfishness, and downright blindness of the American people.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Trump having a good night. I'm happy for Biden too. Performed better than I expected.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Yep, this is 2004/1948 all over again.

Fairly unpopular incumbent mismanages a crisis (Coronavirus, Iraq war) but still manages to get reelected off of social issues (ssm, blm).

Also the biggest polling error since 1948. Nate Silver is definitely out of a job.

What a mess.

He deserves a demotion to Nate Bronze for giving Biden over 60% odds of winning Florida. Literally all the available info except polls was extremely favourable for Trump.

The real moral of this election is that there are factors to consider besides the polls. If the polls say the Dems will dominate the early vote but then the early vote turns up considerably closer then clearly something is fishy with the polls.

[n1240]

Biden+10 in Maricopa