2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Horus]

OK basically when the counties initially populate it's all early vote and it's clear that the early vote is going massively for Biden.  Lets see the results when counties get to 100%, particularly the suburban ones.

In Indiana it's likely that the election day vote is reported before the  absentee vote, which is likely to be more Democratic.

I'd think the opposite would be true?

[Tintrlvr]

Do any sites have a running map of county swings? NYT has a button that looks like it should show it, but nothing happens when you click on it.

There's a little note below the button on the NYT page that says it will only work in counties that have reported "almost all" of their votes. Some Indiana counties are estimated at over 70% reporting, but I guess that's not enough.

I looked through and Biden is improving on Clinton (and Trump down on his 2016 result) in every Indiana county reporting thus far, though. The range varies, in some it's around a 3-4 point swing but others seem to be more like 10-12 points. Kentucky seems less reliable to refer to thus far as the swings are all over the place and maybe reflect mail vs. in-person balloting more.

[͘]

What a swing for Trump in Louisville!

I want a website that can analyze the swing.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Trump leads Jefferson County KY (Louisville) 72 votes to 8...

Cue Trump: STOP THE COUNT

[Izzyeviel]

*I want to believe*

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Megan_Palin/status/1323751340477218817

Is this normal?

Snipers are commonly placed as I remember during the summer protests but I can't remember the last time one of them has fired. I would be more worried about a riot wall, snipers really aren't going to go massacre a crowd.

[new_patomic]

The problem will overanalyzing these Indiana numbers if they're mostly early/absentee votes, the remaining vote is probably gonna skew more Republican

But Biden is already outperforming HRC in raw vote in many places, and even if the remaining vote skews heavily R, it would still be a huge swing towards Dems from 2016.

That's if we're assuming Trump doesn't also eventually exceed his previous raw vote totals.

We don't know how much of the vote is outstanding yet in these places.

[͘]

Damn, RIP Biden.

[ExSky]

Goodness the Georgia numbers are going to be glorious.

[RI]

The current county results in KY are a jumbled mess.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Biden is already only 300 shy of Clinton’s total in Boone County, KY. We still have all ED left it looks like. Looks like he’s massive getting swings in the burbs, even in dark red suburbs.

[Panda Express]

Where is my Hamilton County?

[GoTfan]

https://twitter.com/Megan_Palin/status/1323751340477218817

Is this normal?

Snipers are always on the roof of the White House.

Yeah, I always thought it was a pretty standard security measure.

[redjohn]

Waiting until we have multiple counties reporting 90%+ to make predictions based on this.

[Storr]

Goodness the Georgia numbers are going to be glorious.

ELEVEN MINUTES

[NOVA Green]

Trump only leading 56-42 in Allen County IN with 19% Reporting....

Fort Wayne coming home...

[Hammy]

Biden is already only 300 shy of Clinton’s total in Boone County, KY. We still have all ED left it looks like. Looks like he’s massive getting swings in the burbs, even in dark red suburbs.

I thought election day vote came in first?

[WD]

Trump about to retake the lead in KY.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Yeezy is already at 300 in Kentucky.

You're welcome - Biden fans.

[Non Swing Voter]

Sh*t is about to get real.  Lots of states closing at 7pm...

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Hmmm Bath County KY is 68.9% Trump and up to 88% reporting...

Trump only got 67.2% in 2016 there...

So that is more than 1 of the rural counties that are closer to 100% reporting with a slight pro-Trump swing. So yeah early vote is probably making things look too good for Biden right now. If Trump gets a rural swing going his way more generally, even if small, he has at least some chance and we need to see more results in other states.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Voters in Wisconsin trust Biden over Trump by 6 in handling the economy according to an MSNBC exit poll.

[philly09]

Rick Santorum is starting to get nervous on CNN.

[n1240]

Boone county partially in IN-05 is Trump+16 and about 86% of their 2016 turnout (was Trump+29)

[new_patomic]

Biden is already only 300 shy of Clinton’s total in Boone County, KY. We still have all ED left it looks like. Looks like he’s massive getting swings in the burbs, even in dark red suburbs.

I thought election day vote came in first?

There doesn't seem to be any consistency. Some counties are reporting election day results already, others are dropping EV first.