2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Holmes]

Clayton county director of elections saying they’re still counting.

[Holmes]

I love my home state, but it is about to disappoint me about as bad as a certain Atlanta team did in February 2017.

Well we took your offensive coordinator and.... blew the Super Bowl this year as well.

[Holmes]

Trump will win AZ. Trump has the momentum folks

This isn’t a football game. There’s no momentum. The votes have already been cast.

[Holmes]

Gwinnett apparently went home for the night unfortunately. Their last 4,800 will come tomorrow. Counting on 4,355 from Clayton to come in or Biden may not take the lead tonight in GA.

9k military ballots. Dems lost. Trump won election.

They’re not just military ballots. They’re overseas ballots.

[Holmes]

We did it, MillenialModerate!

[Holmes]

Makes me laugh that Spanberger looks to have increased her vote total by 0.2% compared to 2018 and she was SO MAD at leadership for nearly sinking her. Hey clown.

[Holmes]

The Utah AG should honestly resign iif he wants to help Trump so bad.

[Holmes]

Ok why did Georgia just report only 1 vote?

All votes matter.

[Holmes]

Does anyone know if Biden is favored to prevail in Arizona?

Most likely. The latest Maricopa dump was not good enough for Trump.

[Holmes]

https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1324758193965309952

What's the other one? Texas? Florida?

Not sure but I'd guess Florida.

Interesting!

It seems like areas with morons are highly overrepresented here. Makes sense, I always heard that your two best days as a boat owner are the day you buy and the day you sell.

Maybe we can get some timeshare figures to confirm? 😂😂😂

Boats are fun if you live near a lake, or the ocean I guess. Would never own one but my grandparents had one at my childhood cottage by the lake.

[Holmes]

No, we’re not beginning to appreciate it CNN, quite the opposite actually.

Tea

[Holmes]

Inyo flipping to Dems makes the California map a lot more aesthetically pleasing by connecting a lot more Democratic counties. Too bad Placer didn’t end up flipping.

[Holmes]

Too much celebrating considering Trump is still president and the election is only legally binding if those currently in power allow it to be--and they likely won't

bruh

[Holmes]

1) Why is Arizona being so slow to count?

2) Why hasn't Arizona been called?

It has been called by the AP and Fox News (which I believe use the same exit polling data, different from the other networks).

[Holmes]

California is overwhelmingly likely to trend R from 2016!

What?

As of right now with 92% of the vote in, Biden has 64% of the vote in California (Trump 33%) and with over 10 million votes.

In 2016, Hillary won California 61%-31% over Trump with 8 million votes.

Biden so far has gained 3% more than Hillary. Trump has gained 2%. That's not trending R.

Yes, it is.  He didn't say swing Republican, but trend Republican.  The NPV swung by more than that.  I would say, with what we know about Asian and Hispanic swings in 2020, along with California potentially being almost maxed-out, it would make a lot of sense for it to trend slightly Republican in this election.

Well, if so, that's just noise.

Most trends are just noise unless they happen consecutively over the course of many election cycles or a very large trends.

[Holmes]

So Biden might win 5 states by 1 million or more

California
New York
Illinois (maybe?)
Massachusetts
Maryland (maybe?)

Trump's best state looks like Tennessee at 700k or so.

Also note that Biden's margin in California is around 5 million.

This is kinda important, it shows how packed up Democratic voters really are, it's actually gotten worse since 2016.   It's now actually feasible to see the Democrats winning the popular vote by 4-5% and the Republicans still winning the Electoral College.

Is this really sustainable?   Would the government have real legitimacy with such a loopsided flipped result?   The elected National Leader winning significantly fewer votes than his opponent and still being elected to office?  

It sounds like a broken system to me.

California has trended a little R so I can see future republicans build on this.

Not really lol. There's no hope for Republicans in California statewide for the foreseeable future.

i mean I dont think it will ever go for a republican president statewide but i can republicans maybe cut it to 20-25% lead like it was in 2008 and 2012 as opposed to a near 30% lead currently. Even John Cox who ran a joke campaign got 38% in 2018.

The thing about the 2018 gubernatorial election was that Newsom was really hated in a lot of places in SoCal where Dems are now pulling ahead in. Ancestral Republican places like Orange County and San Diego. They had no issues voting Republican, especially for a statewide office.

[Holmes]

I wish if Dems really did rig it that they would’ve rigged the downballot races too! Try better next time, Dems.

[Holmes]

I think the comparison to Virginia is a good one, but it’s more like 2006-ish Virginia. And remember that Virginia was still pretty purple-ish until maybe around 2015-2016 or so? They elected a Republican Governor in a landslide in 2009 and almost elected a Republican Senator in 2014.

[Holmes]

So does it look like Biden will achieve or even marginally exceed a full 4.0% margin of victory?

Yes.

[Holmes]

First thing I thought when I saw the Rockland swing was the Jewish vote.

[Holmes]

2020 US Presidential Election County Map

Biden won Inyo county and lost Monongalia and Oklahoma counties.

[Holmes]

Re: El Paso County/Colorado Springs

This is one of the most rapidly growing areas of the state, in part because it's cheaper than Denver/northern suburbs. Lots of people who would be moving to Denver area are moving down here instead for commuting (!), telework, or general recreation activity. A lot of the factors that keep the area red are still present (evangelical presence, military, diploma divide) but it's swinging the same way as the rest of the state's major metros for the same reasons.

Yeah my uncle in law lives in Colorado Springs and his wife commutes to Denver, although they’ve been living there for I think 15 years now. I think it’s a an hour commute? That’s not the worst, coming from someone in California.