2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

CBS projects MN for Biden.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I extrapolated the numbers out of metro ATL based on existing vote patterns. If Biden replicates the existing vote totals in the remaining estimated ballots, he'll net about 150K more votes out of metro ATL. Trump currently leads by 118K votes in GA.

There are a few more votes out in Chatham (Biden 56%), Muscogee (Biden 59%), and some black belt counties that could add a few thousand more votes to Biden.

No idea if the remaining votes will follow the existing votes but we do know Fulton mail-ins are still out. I would expect that vote to go even more D than the non-mail in votes. Not sure about the other counties.

Thanks for doing the lord's work.
This makes me more confident in my prediction Biden would win GA.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Peterson’s lost.

As expected. Peterson, Shalala, Mucrasel-Powell, Horn, Finkenauer, Torres-Small...all have lost reelection. And Cunningham looks like he is in trouble as well. How is Jared Golden faring?

I'm repeating this question, especially since Biden is "only" up by 7% in Maine and Susan Collins is holding her own against Gideon before RCV.

per DDHQ

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Nevada looks tight, how you feeling about this? Narrow Biden win?

Would take a lot for Biden to lose here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

IA-02 is going down to the wire.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Trump held Robeson County by a substantial margin. I'm not sure to what extent Biden's endorsement of federal recognition for the Lumbee tribe helped him there. Every vote is critical in a race as close as this. And thus far, we have not seen any truly surprising outcomes in the Senate races. Marshall in Kansas and Graham in South Carolina have both won, as has Cornyn in Texas, thus taking reach seats out of contention for Democrats.

IA, ME, and AK will determine whether the Senate flips tonight.

And Iowa is gone for Democrats now, with Alaska and Maine looking like they're gone as well.

We've seen nothing out of AK yet.

AK doesn't even count a majority of its votes until a week after election day, IIRC.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Trump beginning speaking.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

"It's also clear we've won Georgia" - Trump

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is it just me or has Trump been sniffling?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't know why anybody in their mind would believe that Berine whould be doing better after seeing what just happed to Biden in FL. The Fact is Trump effectively convinced many Cuban and Venezuelan voters that Joe Biden of all people was a socialist

Trump attacks worked and that should scare the heck out of AOC or any Dems that supports Berinie. If anything the Berinie whould has lost Florida by even bigger numbers
I also think that  Trump would have also won AZ and been well on his way to winning all of the Midwest states.

Bernie would have gotten other votes than Biden couldn't get.  Bernie had been very good at attracting apolitical voters, unlike Biden and other centrists, because he brings up issues the likes of Biden ignore.  Like you said, Trump and Republicans call everyone a communist or whatever, so there was nothing to gain by nominating a centrist like Biden.
Also if you think Bernie would have lost Arizona, you know absolutely nothing about Arizona and why it is becoming a blue state. 

>Biden
>"centrists"

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

CBS projects VA for Biden.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

CBS projects VA for Biden.

They're slow.

I don't disagree. They could have called it an hour ago.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

CBS projects VA for Biden.

That it took this long to definitively project Virginia is certainly not good news for Biden. It appears that he is going to win the state by an underwhelming margin at this point, perhaps slightly less than Northam's margin of victory in 2017. This was a state where it was thought Democrats would win by double digits. And Bob Good won in VA-05, so another disappointment for Democrats in the House.

I'm not sure I would read that much into it. It could be more that they are very cautious about making calls.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't know why anybody in their mind would believe that Berine whould be doing better after seeing what just happed to Biden in FL. The Fact is Trump effectively convinced many Cuban and Venezuelan voters that Joe Biden of all people was a socialist

Trump attacks worked and that should scare the heck out of AOC or any Dems that supports Berinie. If anything the Berinie whould has lost Florida by even bigger numbers
I also think that  Trump would have also won AZ and been well on his way to winning all of the Midwest states.

Bernie would have gotten other votes than Biden couldn't get.  Bernie had been very good at attracting apolitical voters, unlike Biden and other centrists, because he brings up issues the likes of Biden ignore.  Like you said, Trump and Republicans call everyone a communist or whatever, so there was nothing to gain by nominating a centrist like Biden.
Also if you think Bernie would have lost Arizona, you know absolutely nothing about Arizona and why it is becoming a blue state. 

Exactly, Bernie would've won Arizona very handily. This is just mind-numbing right now.

What universe are you guys living in lol

the two dem that AZ just elected are Mark Kelly and Kristen Sinema
they are the furthest from Berinie as you possibly can get

Berinie?  You don't even know what his name is, and you expect us to take you seriously?

Those were the Democrats that were on the ballot, and thy voted for them.  What makes you think they wouldn't have voted for another Democrat.  Stop trolling now.

Stop throwing around trolling accusations. Just stop.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

CBS projects VA for Biden.

That it took this long to definitively project Virginia is certainly not good news for Biden. It appears that he is going to win the state by an underwhelming margin at this point, perhaps slightly less than Northam's margin of victory in 2017. This was a state where it was thought Democrats would win by double digits. And Bob Good won in VA-05, so another disappointment for Democrats in the House.

I'm not sure I would read that much into it. It could be more that they are very cautious about making calls.

Fox has been less cautious, but still has 7 states uncalled.

When did Fox call VA for Biden?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What the hell happened in the Rio Grande area?!

third parties under 2%

Trump likely has some sort of appeal among Tejanos, for some reason.
No one saw it coming.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Looks like John King has gone to bed

Hope he sleeps well, he did a great job

Sleep tight, King

You earned it, John.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Suozzi is currently trailing his challenger.
Is he actually going to lose? And does this have much to do with Biden currently being behind there as well?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Doomsters might Doom...

We still have Millions of Votes left to be Counted.

We can debate the exact numbers in MI, PA, and WI, but regardless with AZ voting DEM plus NE-02, we can hold a loss in one of those states, regardless of results in GA, NC or ME-02,

The key thing is this! Millions of votes left to the counted.
This is not a typical election night.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm going to bed now like John King. I might be back here at 7 or 8 am Eastern after I see some more votes get counted. I've definitely been going on a bit of a posting rampage with 67 posts in the last 24 hours. See you tomorrow.

Sleep well. You'll need it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1323896943618260992

So not quite 75% needed.

Wait....there’s only 270k votes left in Philly?  It seems like it should be more like 400k from the reporting % being listed.  If it really is only 270k, that would be bad news for Biden, and also a significant turnout drop from 2016.

I'm guessing there's more election day vote from philly?

That's the most likely explanation I guess.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

WI - Biden down by 108,000 (83% counted)

Of the remaining 647,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 377,000 of them. (58.3%)

MI - Biden down by 308,422 (72% counted)

Of the remaining 1,563,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 936,000 of them. (59.9%)

GA - Biden down by 102,134 (92% counted)

Of the remaining 406,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 254,000 of them. (62.6%)

Biden needs to win 2 of the above 3 scenarios to win.

Have called PA for Trump and NV for Biden.

Good work involving tallying the numbers.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

NV is looking to be a nail biter. I have a feeling the election day votes in Clark may be better for Trump than expected, although Ralston is confident in Biden. If Trump could win it that would give him another route to 270. The final map could look a little screwy.

If Ralston is bullish on Biden in NV, then I'm bullish on him as well.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

NV is looking to be a nail biter. I have a feeling the election day votes in Clark may be better for Trump than expected, although Ralston is confident in Biden. If Trump could win it that would give him another route to 270. The final map could look a little screwy.

If Ralston is bullish on Biden in NV, then I'm bullish on him as well.

He's been getting less confident over time however; I don't think he'd want to contradict his prediction until its certain to go one way.

That's a fair point.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Biden about to net 9k before the Milwaukee vote dump.

Cassidy Williams
@CassidyWtv
BREAKING: after all three machines tabulated

19,700- Biden
10,103-Trump

The absentee ballots in Kenosha are not enough to take over the county for Biden. Final results should be on the county website soon

I'd prefer a stronger swing, but this is good enough.