2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Omega21]

https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1324025795312906243?s=21

Anemic.

I thought Biden was +17 in WI?  lol

But Trump still lost it. But since it's narrow I guess you are settling for a participation trophy.

I can be happy with my candidate's relative overperformance and how the polls/punditry were (once again) very, very wrong.  

Red avatars trying to spin narrow wins in MI/WI is a bad look when the Atlas consensus was these states would be ~8pt wins for Biden.  

The goal posts keep moving, and the desperation is real.  Enjoy Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell for the next 6 years (at least!)

Remember when 99% of them said they'd get 400+, pack the court and give PR statehood?

lol

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

One unmentioned winner tonight is Kevin McCarthy. That coup by Steve Scalise probably isn't happening anymore.

[limac333]

Illinois progressive tax amendment failed thankfully, and with Biden likely winning, I can’t imagine the 2022 electorate will be much more receptive to it.

Definitely shows there’s either significant mistrust of the state government or significant skepticism of big government policy among a portion of Illinois Dems. With a razor-thin margin in Champaign, it’s possible that it could lose in every county but Cook, and it got a laughable 62% in Cook, one of the most heavily Democratic counties in the country.

Yeah, and it needed 60% so it was always going to be a tough climb with all the money thrown into lobbying for/against it.

I think their best chance now is to wait until 2028 and when the every 20 year Constitutional Convention measure comes up again, but even that didn't go well in 2008.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The failure of the Democratic Party in the last two presidential elections is really mind-blowing. It looks like Trump's claim of "socialism" really did work - although I tend to think AOC and her squad is actually a negative for the Democrats and not a positive. Their brand of politics simply does not play well nationwide.

[Tender Branson]

Prof. McDonald has a 1st estimate of turnout.

Highest in 120 years, at 67% of the VEP (voting-eligible population), or ca. 160 million:



https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1323897443398942726

Of course, it will take 6 weeks until every state has certified their total ballots cast and until January/February until the Census Bureau releases the new 2020 census state counts, which can then be used to re-calculate turnout based on the newest population numbers.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The failure of the Democratic Party in the last two presidential elections is really mind-blowing. It looks like Trump's claim of "socialism" really did work - although I tend to think AOC and her squad is actually a negative for the Democrats and not a positive. Their brand of politics simply does not play well nationwide.

AOC wasn't the nominee.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Illinois progressive tax amendment failed thankfully, and with Biden likely winning, I can’t imagine the 2022 electorate will be much more receptive to it.

Definitely shows there’s either significant mistrust of the state government or significant skepticism of big government policy among a portion of Illinois Dems. With a razor-thin margin in Champaign, it’s possible that it could lose in every county but Cook, and it got a laughable 62% in Cook, one of the most heavily Democratic counties in the country.

The messaging on the "No" campaign was quite good. I think voters from both parties in the state could agree that Illinois needs to manage its budget better, and I'm sure that was enough to peel off a significant chunk of Dems.

I hardly even saw a commercial for the “No” side until right before the election, but I was flooded with “Yes” commercials, and they seemed to try to put a bumper-sticker message on it (meaning way too simplistic to capture what was really being voted on), and voters clearly didn’t buy that.

[SInNYC]

I'll give credit where credit is due. The doomers were, by and large, right. Predicting a narrow Trump win is in fact closer to the actual result than the 413 map (which was what my prediction was in the ballpark of).

That still doesn't magically make the lion's share of their contributions to this forum worthwhile or not insufferable to read.

I found the anti-doomers more insufferable due to their dismissal of anything that didnt fit their views. I remember all the posts about how Selzer is garbage - in fact, she looks to have nailed it in IA.

I'm not saying one way or the other about whether Trafalgar is reputable - thats a completely different issue.

[Buzz]

Minnesota caught be off guard last night.  Thought it would be much closer

[Sir Mohamed]

By the way Minnesota ds didn't even flip the state senate

Tina Smith also underperformed. Just ahead 48-43% as we speak. Sure, a win is a win, but she got 53% in 2018.

[Ferguson97]

Minnesota caught be off guard last night.  Thought it would be much closer

Minnesota - titanium Likely D?

[Non Swing Voter]

The most likely outcome is that a sitting President lost re-election for the first time since GHWB.  relax.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Joe Biden has now broken the 69.5 million raw vote record set by Barack Obama in 2008, becoming the most voted presidential candidate in history. Trump is also on track to break it, presumably becoming the second most voted candidate in history.

More Americans have preferred the Democratic candidate for the fourth election in a row, the longest streak since the New Deal.

[Badger]

Biden lead in MI up to 32k.

The most glorious news I've had since he pulled ahead in Wisconsin about 7 hours ago, possibly all night.

With Michigan that hits 270, even if Trump carries Pennsylvania and Georgia.

It feels like Crash Landing a plane that's on fire, but a win is a win

[lfromnj]

By the way Minnesota ds didn't even flip the state senate

Tina Smith also underperformed. Just ahead 48-43% as we speak. Sure, a win is a win, but she got 53% in 2018.

But but but Jason Lewis trash talk host radio , Smith will be Klobuchar 2.0

[Non Swing Voter]

Minnesota caught be off guard last night.  Thought it would be much closer

Minnesota - titanium Likely D?

Seems like what we learned is any state with a big city is trending D no matter the region.  

Georgia, Arizona, Minnesota fit this mold.  

Problem for Democrats is that Philly isn't as large relative to the state population as some of the others.  But still looks like Biden might pull it out in PA.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Joe Biden has now broken the 69.5 million raw vote record set by Barack Obama in 2008, becoming the most voted presidential candidate in history. Trump is also on track to break it, presumably becoming the second most voted candidate in history.

More Americans have preferred the Democratic candidate for the fourth election in a row, the longest streak since the New Deal.

With the way demographics are shifting, it really does look like we will be seeing more and more winning presidential candidates losing the popular vote. Whether that motivates either side to change now EVs are allocated - who knows, but I am not hopeful anything will change.

[Person Man]

Biden lead in MI up to 32k.

The most glorious news I've had since he pulled ahead in Wisconsin about 7 hours ago, possibly all night.

With Michigan that hits 270, even if Trump carries Pennsylvania and Georgia.

It feels like Crash Landing a plane that's on fire, but a win is a win

And we are confident in Nevada?

[GeneralMacArthur]

What's going on with Arizona?  I went to bed last night feeling pretty good because Fox/AP called it, then I wake up and see the lead has narrowed to 3%.  Wasn't really expecting the lead to narrow with the outstanding vote being what it is.

[Hope For A New Era]

Minnesota caught be off guard last night.  Thought it would be much closer

Minnesota - titanium Likely D?

Yes it is!

Turnout is already high, so it's immune to turnout surges, and there are almost no persuadable voters. It's partisan hacks, both sides, all the way through.

[Beet]

In Tx the D's didn't even pick up a single state house seat (net), they did ironically pick up a heavily Latino state senate seat that they lost in a fluke last year.

[RI]

What's going on with Arizona?  I went to bed last night feeling pretty good because Fox/AP called it, then I wake up and see the lead has narrowed to 3%.  Wasn't really expecting the lead to narrow with the outstanding vote being what it is.

There was/is more vote left to be counted than the networks thought.

[BigSerg]

Twitter Poll, 50/50 lol
https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1324010211636506624?s=19

[Bootes Void]

Biden lead in MI up to 32k.

The most glorious news I've had since he pulled ahead in Wisconsin about 7 hours ago, possibly all night.

With Michigan that hits 270, even if Trump carries Pennsylvania and Georgia.

It feels like Crash Landing a plane that's on fire, but a win is a win

We haven't heard anything out of Nevada so I would be a bit cautious. Theres also a possibility of electors being bribed or faithless. Lastly a Pa or Ga can put us at ease cause that would be a decent win

[Alcibiades]

What the hell happened in Antrim County, MI?! Went from +30 Trump in 2016 to +26 Biden this time with almost all votes counted. Insane swing.

It's an error.

Ah. Did look rather off. Trump and Biden’s vote totals the wrong way around?