2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Alben Barkley]

This is shaping up to be a LOT like 2018. Florida goes bad, everyone freaks the fu—k out, then we slowly learn over the course of the night that just about everywhere else is fine.

We might even still win Georgia LOL. And to think we had doomers dooming, Trumpers gloating, and everyone pointing fingers and arguing over the cause of this “loss” that was never very likely to actually occur.

Convince me I'm wrong. How does Biden win Wisconsin when Trump has 1,000 more votes in Lafayette than he got in 2016? The polls giving Biden the edge were predicated on Trump losing those voters hard, but I just don't see a Democrat path to victory in Wisconsin without the Southwest. Wisconsin doesn't have the same disproportionately D favouring, late arriving mail ins that

For reference, in 2018 Baldwin won Lafayette by her exact margin of victory (55%) and Scott Walker narrowly won it with 1,800 fewer voters. Unless Biden pulls out crazy margins in Milwaukee or dramatically flips the WOW I just don't see a path to victory for him here.

Pennsylvania is obviously harder to tell with the huge D mail in advantage but the same trend appears to be happening there too. Trump already has 54k votes in Erie with less than 60% counted, he only got 60k in 2016 and Romney only got around 40k in 2012. This is a county that Biden was supposed to flip by double digits.

I want my prediction to be 100% right but everything I'm seeing suggests we're far closer to 2016 than 2018. The only potentially redeeming factor for Biden is better suburban margins and turnout, which could definitely save him in Pennsylvania, but if Biden wins Wisconsin on the back of the suburbs I'll eat a sock.

For one thing, tons of ballots still outstanding in Milwaukee. Tons of mail-in ballots in general still outstanding that will favor Dems. As close as the state is anyway, should be more that enough to flip it. Also having won AZ and now maybe being on pace to win GA, Biden doesn’t even need the whole trifecta. But it looks like he’s gonna get it. Also MN has been called for Biden and looks like it’s gonna be a lot less close than 2016, which bodes well for WI.

[7,052,770]

So how are we currently feeling about:

MI? Likely Biden

WI? Likely Biden

PA? TOSSUP

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Kevin McCarthy is only leading his Democratic opponent 54-46. This is the most GOP district in the state.

Further confirming that California is the best state in the nation.

[Battista Minola 1616]

I have no energy anymore for this thread. It's almost 7 am here in Italy. This election has been way more absurd than I imagined it.

Goodbye to everyone.

[Bootes Void]

Nevada's coming in, its look like Biden will narrowly win it

[Kuumo]

he's only winning Oklahoma County with a plurality.

Seriously, f#ck third party votes in competitive races.

Oklahoma was not competitive for President. I would agree if it were OK-05.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

This is shaping up to be a LOT like 2018. Florida goes bad, everyone freaks the fu—k out, then we slowly learn over the course of the night that just about everywhere else is fine.

We might even still win Georgia LOL. And to think we had doomers dooming, Trumpers gloating, and everyone pointing fingers and arguing over the cause of this “loss” that was never very likely to actually occur.

Republicans are keeping the Senate. Real doomer hours if you actually want Democratic legislation to pass.

I guess that doesn't matter when all you care about is performativity.

Believe it or not, I don’t want the most powerful man in the world to be a dangerous incompetent idiot and wannabe dictator. That’s more important to me than the Senate, and it’s not just “performative.”

McConnell will be more powerful than Biden and he, unlike Trump, is highly competent and evil.

Sorry, but you guys blew it. Biden may eke out a narrow victory that will be largely hollow. No Democratic policy goal, judge appointment, or bill will pass. Which renders the entire primary meaningless.

But on the plus side, he will have plenty of time to eat ice cream. Make sure it's that Jeni's brand the centrist Dems weirdly obsess over.

Repealing the travel ban, reinstating DACA, and reasonable leadership on the pandemic aren’t policy goals, I guess.

[Fargobison]

https://twitter.com/megynkelly/status/1323862631090917379

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Lizzie Fletcher defeats big-brain, Joe Rogan Edgelord Wesley Hunt, 51 - 47

[DrScholl]

Nebraska's 1st congressional district had a crazy leftward swing so far.

Was Trump +18, now Trump +3.6.

There was a poll that showed him up like only 2% there. Looks like it was right.

[͘]

Took forever for NYT to call Florida. Jeez.

[Alben Barkley]

So how are we currently feeling about:

MI? Likely Biden

WI? Likely Biden

PA? TOSSUP

And that’s enough to win with AZ and NE-02 let alone GA.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1323863271636652032?s=20

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Hopefully we win both MI and WI so that we won't need to rely on PA.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Biden speaking now: we believe we are going to win this election.

[The Free North]

Dread from it...run from it....Selzer's accuracy arrives all the same.

Trump +9%
Ernst +7%

And its official.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This is shaping up to be a LOT like 2018. Florida goes bad, everyone freaks the fu—k out, then we slowly learn over the course of the night that just about everywhere else is fine.

We might even still win Georgia LOL. And to think we had doomers dooming, Trumpers gloating, and everyone pointing fingers and arguing over the cause of this “loss” that was never very likely to actually occur.

Republicans are keeping the Senate. Real doomer hours if you actually want Democratic legislation to pass.

I guess that doesn't matter when all you care about is performativity.

Believe it or not, I don’t want the most powerful man in the world to be a dangerous incompetent idiot and wannabe dictator. That’s more important to me than the Senate, and it’s not just “performative.”

McConnell will be more powerful than Biden and he, unlike Trump, is highly competent and evil.

Sorry, but you guys blew it. Biden may eke out a narrow victory that will be largely hollow. No Democratic policy goal, judge appointment, or bill will pass. Which renders the entire primary meaningless.

But on the plus side, he will have plenty of time to eat ice cream. Make sure it's that Jeni's brand the centrist Dems weirdly obsess over.

Repealing the travel ban, reinstating DACA, and reasonable leadership on the pandemic aren’t policy goals, I guess.

There's a lot Biden could do by executive order.

He won't, though, because he's too much of an institutionalist.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Kevin McCarthy is only leading his Democratic opponent 54-46. This is the most GOP district in the state.

Further confirming that California is the best state in the nation.

The GOP at the moment is winning precisely no districts in CA by double digits.

[Kuumo]

I can't help but see the parallels with Hillary Clinton in 2016 with Biden's address on CNN.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Gianforte wins MTGOV.

[7,052,770]

So how are we currently feeling about:

MI? Likely Biden

WI? Likely Biden

PA? TOSSUP

And that’s enough to win with AZ and NE-02 let alone GA.

Yep, the election as a whole is Likely D now. Not quite safe, but it's getting close.

[Storr]

So how are we currently feeling about:

MI? Likely Biden

WI? Likely Biden

PA? TOSSUP

And that’s enough to win with AZ and NE-02 let alone GA.

Reaching 270 (AZ,MI,WI,NE-2 + Clinton states = 270) even with possible litigation would be a relief.  

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

That Pennsylvania margin is really starting to look a bit too much.

[Calthrina950]

I can't help but see the parallels with Hillary Clinton in 2016 with Biden's address on CNN.

I agree. That Biden is talking about how they're "doing strong in Minnesota" doesn't seem to come across very well. He's probably surprised by how close this race seems to be.

[RINO Tom]

Kevin McCarthy is only leading his Democratic opponent 54-46. This is the most GOP district in the state.

Further confirming that California is the best state in the nation.

The GOP at the moment is winning precisely no districts in CA by double digits.

Many better measures for being the “best state in the nation,” lol.