2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[ExSky]

Touting E Day  percentage leads and comparing them to 2016 means you’re in a bad spot.

[Silent Hunter]

Biden doesn't even need Florida...

[Non Swing Voter]

The frustrating thing is that it was clearly explained since EV that the key to winning Florida is to keep the electorate under R+4 by getting higher Dem turnout then 2016 which is what seems to be happening. It’s gonna be close as always but nothing so far really points away from a Biden +2 victory which is what the average is

Right.  nothing short of Dems winning battleground states by 10+ will make some people here happy.

[ultraviolet]

FL Rs lead up to 56k

I was told that #RepublicansforBiden meant Biden had Florida in the bag.

Do you not understand that voter registration is not who you vote for?  

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Hello to everyone.

I have to wait until midnight Italian time to see the polls officially close in the first states and to see the official results start trickle in and gaaah I'm in for a long night I suppose.

[swf541]

The big unknown about Florida right now is Miami Dade.  Dems have A LOT of room for growth there.  High Election Day turnout there would seem to benefit them at this point.  Anyone know what's going on with turnout there?

Nothing from Miami Dade so far today it seems..........

[RI]

The frustrating thing is that it was clearly explained since EV that the key to winning Florida is to keep the electorate under R+4 by getting higher Dem turnout then 2016 which is what seems to be happening. It’s gonna be close as always but nothing so far really points away from a Biden +2 victory which is what the average is

The Republicans are quickly gaining in FL so far. Still a long way to go (at R+0.6, but was D-leaning at poll open), but if they keep up their current pace, I think they do clear R+4.

[RI]

The big unknown about Florida right now is Miami Dade.  Dems have A LOT of room for growth there.  High Election Day turnout there would seem to benefit them at this point.  Anyone know what's going on with turnout there?

Nothing from Miami Dade so far today it seems..........

Given how every other county is voting today, it doesn't seem farfetched to think Miami-Dade's ED vote has been R-leaning so far.

[redjohn]

Strong prediction: We can obsess over any FL statistic and we will have no better idea who is headed for victory until actual votes report. Something I'm learning to do today is to pay literally zero attention to partisan takes on turnout today.

[randomusername]

https://www.gpb.org/news/2020/11/03/gpb-election-blog-i-wanted-make-sure-i-got-my-voice-heard

Georgia liveblog

[Silent Hunter]

It's 11.11 am in Florida.

[Non Swing Voter]

The big unknown about Florida right now is Miami Dade.  Dems have A LOT of room for growth there.  High Election Day turnout there would seem to benefit them at this point.  Anyone know what's going on with turnout there?

Nothing from Miami Dade so far today it seems..........

Given how every other county is voting today, it doesn't seem farfetched to think Miami-Dade's ED vote has been R-leaning so far.

Except Miami Dade was one of the few counties where Republicans substantially over performed in the early vote.  So there's just not nearly as many Republicans left to vote there.  

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/Wizard_Predicts/status/1323625111782596610

The Wizard's election map is...something else:

https://twitter.com/Wizard_Predicts/status/1323109933357957121

Possible (and really, most people expect this) for "Election Day Only" votes.

It is telling more people had already voted in Texas by yesterday than had voted in the entire 2016 election, which may say something. We are not going to get "normal" results.

[swf541]

The big unknown about Florida right now is Miami Dade.  Dems have A LOT of room for growth there.  High Election Day turnout there would seem to benefit them at this point.  Anyone know what's going on with turnout there?

Nothing from Miami Dade so far today it seems..........

Given how every other county is voting today, it doesn't seem farfetched to think Miami-Dade's ED vote has been R-leaning so far.

You are extrapolating off about one hour of data when we're already seeing the R margin in day of vote falling......

[Flo 2.0]

It's 11.11 am in Florida.

make a wish!

[randomusername]

Why are you all even bothering with the Wizard's tweets? His Twitter bio shows he shouldn't be taken seriously.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323658013652226048
Here’s another great example we are at almost 80% turnout in the Villages and Trump is doing 10% worse then in 2016 while NPAs (a group that has constantly been pro-Biden in polling) has spiked.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

https://twitter.com/Wizard_Predicts/status/1323625111782596610

The Wizard's election map is...something else:

https://twitter.com/Wizard_Predicts/status/1323109933357957121

Possible (and really, most people expect this) for "Election Day Only" votes.

It is telling more people had already voted in Texas by yesterday than had voted in the entire 2016 election, which may say something. We are not going to get "normal" results.

Yep but that's not an "Election Day Only" map. That's just an insane prediction by a Trumper.

[cp]

A nifty tool, this

Might be the most British-thing that will be said today

Lol, thanks. I think. Was born and raised in Canada, fwiw.

[Xing]

Strong prediction: We can obsess over any FL statistic and we will have no better idea who is headed for victory until actual votes report. Something I'm learning to do today is to pay literally zero attention to partisan takes on turnout today.

That's Atlas for you, freaking out about turnout reports, and then when the actual results show something completely different, claiming that they "knew it all along."

[roxas11]

To be honest I'm surprised everyone is so focused on Florida when Pennsylvania will hands down be the most important state on election night  

Trump could end up winning FL but if he than turns around and loses Pennsylvania
this election would basically be over and Biden is most likely going to be our next president

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

To be honest I'm surprised everyone is so focused on Florida when Pennsylvania will hands down be the most important state on election night  

Trump could end up winning FL but if he than turns around and loses Pennsylvania
this election would basically be over and Biden is most likely going to be our next president

I think it's more that people want the election to be done and over with by tonight.  If Biden wins Florida (or Georgia or NC), that will almost certainly be the case. 

[RI]

FL gets the focus because they're the only swing state putting out live data AFAIK.

[swf541]

To be honest I'm surprised everyone is so focused on Florida when Pennsylvania will hands down be the most important state on election night  

Trump could end up winning FL but if he than turns around and loses Pennsylvania
this election would basically be over and Biden is most likely going to be our next president

No data in PA to argue over

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

To be honest I'm surprised everyone is so focused on Florida when Pennsylvania will hands down be the most important state on election night 

Trump could end up winning FL but if he than turns around and loses Pennsylvania
this election would basically be over and Biden is most likely going to be our next president

I think it's more that people want the election to be done and over with by tonight.  If Biden wins Florida (or Georgia or NC), that will almost certainly be the case. 

I think if Biden wins Florida, the election is likely over. He'd need to run the table on all of the other states, and the polls would have to be even more wrong than in 2016 for him to carry Michigan and Wisconsin again