2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[pbrower2a]

Electoral Vote tracker, based on official/certified states + DC

30/51:

166 Trump
121 Biden

November 5th
Delaware

November 6th
New Hampshire

November 10th
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Vermont

November 11th
South Carolina
Wyoming

November 12th
North Dakota

November 17th
Florida

November 18th
Idaho
Mississippi
Virginia

November 19th
Louisiana
Massachusetts

November 20th
Georgia
Kentucky

November 23rd
Alabama
Maine (3 EV Biden, 1 EV Trump)
Michigan
Utah

November 24th
Arkansas
Hawaii
Indiana
Minnesota
Nevada
New Mexico
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Texas

November 25th
Alaska
Connecticut (more than one week early)

November 30th
Arizona
Colorado
Iowa
Montana
Nebraska

December 1st
Kansas
Wisconsin

December 2nd
District of Columbia

December 3rd
Connecticut (certified November 25)
Oregon
Washington
West Virginia

December 4th
Illinois

December 7th
New York

December 8th
Maryland
Missouri
New Jersey

December 11th
California

December 14th
Electoral College votes

Unknown dates
Ohio (missed Nov. 24 deadline)
Rhode Island (results last updated Nov. 24, not yet official)
Tennessee (missed Nov. 23 deadline)

Results:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html
https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker?

Certificates of Ascertainment:

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1331751453908742145

[The Mikado]

Texas is not a purple state.... yet!

I mean, you could definitely call a state Trump won by 5.6 "Purple."

[GeorgiaModerate]

Texas is not a purple state.... yet!

I mean, you could definitely call a state Trump won by 5.6 "Purple."

Magenta?

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1331751453908742145

I don't really know what Lee Zeldin is trying to say here. It sounds like he's having cake and eating too with this and that actually makes the statement even more infuriating than if it were entirely supportive of Trump. F** Zeldin and his stupid face, I wish he was capable of losing.

Texas is not a purple state.... yet!

I mean, you could definitely call a state Trump won by 5.6 "Purple."

Texas is at least moving in that direction. Ohio on the other hand absolutely isn't and not only lost its bellwether status but also its status as something anywhere even close to a purple state.

[Benjamin Frank]

If not mentioned already, the certified results from North Carolina are here:
https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/State_Board_Meeting_Docs/2020-11-24/Canvass/State%20Composite%20Abstract%20Report%20-%20Contest.pdf

Certified results! Get your certified results!

[jimrtex]

Which is the best:

1.

2.

3.

4.

Four.

Maybe do non-reporting as some other color such as black or gray.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Of these, four is definitely the best although two would be if you had an even deeper blue/red to distinguish states like Florida and Michigan from states like Oklahoma and Massachusetts.

[ProgressiveModerate]

How's this?

[Dr. Arch]

How's this?

GA basically looks like it hasn't been certified yet. You should have a light shade of blue that's at least significantly noticeable.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What's wrong with using the Atlas map with proper Atlas colors? The "official" color scheme is stupid anyway.

[n1240]

NY update:

Absentee count:

Biden 573847 (73.5%)
Trump 193539 (24.8%)
Total 780330

Margin of 48.7%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +2.6%, so average swing of 51.3%.

Statewide total:

Biden 4272479 (57.5%)
Trump 3044309 (40.9%)
Total 7296726

standard map:



swings:

[ProgressiveModerate]

Another more complex gradient scale

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Another more complex gradient scale

This is your best one by far!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Another more complex gradient scale

This is your best one by far!

Thanks. I just really hate it mathematically since the color scale is a piecewise function rather than one solid contiguous function.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Thanks. I just really hate it mathematically since the color scale is a piecewise function rather than one solid contiguous function.

FWIW, the 2nd to last one was also a huge improvement if you prefer that equation.

[Bomster]

Pennsylvania halted its certification.

[BudgieForce]

Pennsylvania halted its certification.

It has not.

https://twitter.com/beckerdavidj/status/1331754783183613954

Edit:

https://twitter.com/rickhasen/status/1331692331880177665

[Alben Barkley]

Before this thread fades away, I have to post something that I’m ashamed to say I forgot to post after the winner was called even though I promised myself years ago that I would.

Oh well, better late than never.

[Bomster]

Pennsylvania halted its certification.

It has not.

https://twitter.com/beckerdavidj/status/1331754783183613954

Edit:

https://twitter.com/rickhasen/status/1331692331880177665

What’s going to happen?

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Pennsylvania halted its certification.

It has not.

https://twitter.com/beckerdavidj/status/1331754783183613954

Edit:

https://twitter.com/rickhasen/status/1331692331880177665

What’s going to happen?

Nothing

[Antonio the Sixth]

NY update:

Absentee count:

Biden 573847 (73.5%)
Trump 193539 (24.8%)
Total 780330

Margin of 48.7%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +2.6%, so average swing of 51.3%.

Statewide total:

Biden 4272479 (57.5%)
Trump 3044309 (40.9%)
Total 7296726

standard map:



swings:

Excellent, thank you!!

Kinda disappointed in the North Country honestly. The Essex swing made me hope that it'd come back as a block or almost, but in the end Biden only won 2 of the 4 core counties and one of them even swung to the right. At least the other 3 clearly trended left. Guess I'll take it.

[BudgieForce]

Pennsylvania halted its certification.

It has not.

https://twitter.com/beckerdavidj/status/1331754783183613954
Edit:

https://twitter.com/rickhasen/status/1331692331880177665

What’s going to happen?

I'm not exactly sure. The next court day is on Friday at 11:30am. However, I've been seeing conflicting reports that since the SoS appealed to the State Supreme Court to stop the temporary hold, the entire case automatically goes to the State Supreme Court.

We'll find out on Friday but it's almost guaranteed this case gets thrown out. Even the Republican majority in the State Legislature is arguing that this case is bogus.

[Calthrina950]

NY update:

Absentee count:

Biden 573847 (73.5%)
Trump 193539 (24.8%)
Total 780330

Margin of 48.7%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +2.6%, so average swing of 51.3%.

Statewide total:

Biden 4272479 (57.5%)
Trump 3044309 (40.9%)
Total 7296726

standard map:



swings:

Excellent, thank you!!

Kinda disappointed in the North Country honestly. The Essex swing made me hope that it'd come back as a block or almost, but in the end Biden only won 2 of the 4 core counties and one of them even swung to the right. At least the other 3 clearly trended left. Guess I'll take it.

Do you plan on updating your Redrawn States Project to include the 2020 election, when all of the results have been certified? I'd be interested to see how Biden fared on your map.

[Antonio the Sixth]

NY update:

Absentee count:

Biden 573847 (73.5%)
Trump 193539 (24.8%)
Total 780330

Margin of 48.7%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +2.6%, so average swing of 51.3%.

Statewide total:

Biden 4272479 (57.5%)
Trump 3044309 (40.9%)
Total 7296726

standard map:

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/519209100177965071/781359852127649852/unknown.png

swings:

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/519209100177965071/781361217067024394/unknown.png

Excellent, thank you!!

Kinda disappointed in the North Country honestly. The Essex swing made me hope that it'd come back as a block or almost, but in the end Biden only won 2 of the 4 core counties and one of them even swung to the right. At least the other 3 clearly trended left. Guess I'll take it.

Do you plan on updating your Redrawn States Project to include the 2020 election, when all of the results have been certified? I'd be interested to see how Biden fared on your map.

Of course! It will probably be sometime next year though, given how long it takes for all these results to come out.

I think I can already eyeball what the map looks like, anyway. Biden has definitely won Adirondack. Clinton only lost it by 2 points, and it looks like the statewide swing will be around 4-5 points. Not sure if Biden flips any other redrawn state, though of course he does flip AZ and GA. Upper Peninsula votes might be just enough to sink him in Wisconsin. South Florida and Rio Grande also definitely swung GOP, though Biden still probably carries them. California was probably pretty stable, meaning Biden wins it by 2-3 points. All in all, that should probably add up to 315 EVs for Biden, with an off-chance of 297 or 325 (depending on SF and WI, probably the closest states).

I'll follow up on the 100 States project as well, which at this point I think is more interesting since it has a lot more detail.