2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The language of the order (if it's real) indicates that Wolf, Boockvar, et al. are enjoined from taking any further steps towards certification of the Presidential results (whatever those might be--sending the ascertainment to the National Archives, maybe?), not that the steps that have already been taken are being reversed. Part 1 says "to the extent that there remains any further action" but part 2 says "inasmuch as Respondents....have not undertaken certification [of non-Presidential results]".

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/PAAttorneyGen/status/1331653297833472004

[compucomp]

The language of the order (if it's real) indicates that Wolf, Boockvar, et al. are enjoined from taking any further steps towards certification of the Presidential results (whatever those might be--sending the ascertainment to the National Archives, maybe?), not that the steps that have already been taken are being reversed. Part 1 says "to the extent that there remains any further action" but part 2 says "inasmuch as Respondents....have not undertaken certification [of non-Presidential results]".

The order is true, it's related to Kelly's lawsuit that VBM is unconstitutional in PA. Josh Shapiro (PA AG) says he will file an appeal to the injunction with the PA SC shortly. For what it's worth Kelly's lawsuit looks like it's very unlikely to succeed.

Pennsylvania is prohibited from certifying the rest of its election results in down ballot races — and from taking any further action in regards to yesterday’s certification of the presidential race — pending a hearing on Friday in an appellate court.

The Commonwealth Court of Pennsylvania, in an order signed by Judge Patricia McCullough, issued an injunction Wednesday that stops the state from continuing its certification, and intends to hear evidence in a case filed by U.S. Rep. Mike Kelly and GOP congressional candidate Sean Parnell about the constitutionality of mail-in ballots.

The hearing will be held on Friday at 11:30 a.m.

The state certified the results in the race for president on Tuesday, giving its 20 electoral votes to Democrat Joe Biden and his running mate, California Sen. Kamala Harris. The court order said the state is prohibited from acting “to the extent that there remains any further action to perfect the certification of the results" of the races for president and vice president.

Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro wrote on Twitter, “This order does not impact yesterday’s appointment of electors. We will be filing an appeal with the Pennsylvania Supreme Court momentarily.”

Mr. Kelly and Mr. Parnell are arguing that state lawmakers violated Pennsylvania’s Constitution by adopting Act 77 last year, which expanded the mail-in balloting option to let all qualified voters to vote by mail without an excuse. They allege that absentee voting — which required an excuse from a set of allowed reasons — was rebranded as no-excuse mail-in voting “absent any constitutional authority.”

The Republican-controlled state Legislature responded, in legal filings, that the case should be dismissed because Act 77 didn’t alter the requirements of who constitutes a qualified voter, and that the Legislature is constitutionally authorized to prescribe the method by which those electors may cast their votes.

Lawyers for Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar, Gov. Tom Wolf and the state — also named as defendants in the suit — noted that Act 77 said all constitutional challenges were to be brought within 180 days of effective date, which “came and went without any facial challenge to the constitutionality of Act 77’s provisions.”

“At no time during the 180-day period, the run-up to the primary election, or the runup to the general election did Petitioners (or anyone else) claim in any proceeding that Act 77 was unconstitutional on its fact,” the state’s lawyers wrote, noting that Mr. Kelly and Mr. Parnell ran in the 2020 primary and general election, “presumably garnering votes cast on the same mail-in ballots that they now claim to be unconstitutional.”

https://www.post-gazette.com/news/crime-courts/2020/11/25/pennsylvania-vote-election-certification-sean-parnell-mike-kelly-commonwealth-court-appeal/stories/202011250159

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

That makes sense. I assume McCullough is a big time right-wing hack judge?

[Tender Branson]

If even the PA-R legislature says this case needs to be dropped immediately, the PA Supreme Court will throw it out easily ...

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

If even the PA-R legislature says this case needs to be dropped immediately, the PA Supreme Court will throw it out easily ...

The case would already have been dead due to the SCOPA's consistent siding with Democrats in election cases during this cycle. The fact that even the mainstream of the (not-particularly-moderate) state GOP is against it too makes it deader than disco. Hopefully the SCOPA hears the appeal against the injunction ASAP.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This should have been split up at 160 but if the site is still running with it, I’ll leave it up.

With that said, all good (or depending on your point of view, bad) things come to an end. I’ll lock somewhat soon.

Can we at least keep it open for New York?

[compucomp]

If even the PA-R legislature says this case needs to be dropped immediately, the PA Supreme Court will throw it out easily ...

The case would already have been dead due to the SCOPA's consistent siding with Democrats in election cases during this cycle. The fact that even the mainstream of the (not-particularly-moderate) state GOP is against it too makes it deader than disco. Hopefully the SCOPA hears the appeal against the injunction ASAP.

I'm almost surprised that the PA GOP is self-aware enough to realize how ridiculous it would look if they went to court and argued that the VBM law they passed last year is unconstitutional. I would have thought they would have fallen in line with their Supreme Leader and debased themselves for him.

[BudgieForce]

Pretty big self own that Mike Kelly only succeeded in stopping certification of his own election and not the presidential one.

[YE]

This should have been split up at 160 but if the site is still running with it, I’ll leave it up.

With that said, all good (or depending on your point of view, bad) things come to an end. I’ll lock somewhat soon.

Can we at least keep it open for New York?

Yes.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1331665238408704000?s=21

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1331661027365285889?s=21

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1331665238408704000?s=21

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1331661027365285889?s=21

So Biden falls just a hair short of carrying Orange once these are added in?

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1331665238408704000?s=21

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1331661027365285889?s=21

So Biden falls just a hair short of carrying Orange once these are added in?

yes

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1331665238408704000?s=21

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1331661027365285889?s=21

So Biden falls just a hair short of carrying Orange once these are added in?

yes

Are these all of the absentees for Orange County?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1331665238408704000?s=21

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1331661027365285889?s=21

So Biden falls just a hair short of carrying Orange once these are added in?

yes

Shame. I'm very happy about the Upstate New York results in general, but it would be even better if we could get a non-Atlas-blue wall stretching all the way up the Hudson. Or even all the way from Westchester to Rouses Point considering that he came within a hundred votes of flipping Warren too.

[Brittain33]

So a question for y'all:

*Immediately* following GWB's over-performance with Hispanics (but particularly Latinos) in 2004, were GOP'ers confident that these gains would hold for future cycles?

(I was nine at the time, so a tad bit young for such demographical analysis hehe.)

I'm going to disagree with others here. My recollection is that this was seen as a personal vote for George W. Bush because of his embrace of Hispanics and Texas background. In the 2008 primary, McCain's pro-immigration status was seen as a way for him to continue to enjoy some of that advantage, but Republicans didn't take it for granted because everyone was aware of the anti-immigrant faction which people presumed to alienate Hispanics.

[South Dakota Democrat]

So a question for y'all:

*Immediately* following GWB's over-performance with Hispanics (but particularly Latinos) in 2004, were GOP'ers confident that these gains would hold for future cycles?

(I was nine at the time, so a tad bit young for such demographical analysis hehe.)

I was a touch older, but I don't remember.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1331624798372438018
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1331655154492448770

[emailking]

Yeah Obama won the tipping point state by 5.4%, Biden has won it by just 0.6%. Sadly, in the American system that's what matters.

The fact that in both 2012 and 2008 the tipping point state was Colorado feels very weird looking back at it. Colorado didn’t really feel like a crucial battleground either time, more emphasis was placed on OH, FL, VA and PA.

I think the tipping point concept is of limited usefulness when the election isn't close, particularly in a landslide like 2008. In a world where McCain wins the election, it's such a big shift that it could be a different state entirely that puts him over the top.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Pretty big self own that Mike Kelly only succeeded in stopping certification of his own election and not the presidential one.

Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1331673992315465728

Third time Ontario County votes D, LBJ in 1964 and Clinton in 1996.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1331673992315465728

Third time Ontario County votes D, LBJ in 1964 and Clinton in 1996.

Had a feeling this would flip given that Trump failed to get a majority there in 2016.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I have personal connections in four of those five counties (all but Ontario). The Upstate New York swings seem almost tailored as fanservice for me and my close friend group personally. You love to see it, folks.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1331673992315465728

Third time Ontario County votes D, LBJ in 1964 and Clinton in 1996.

Martin Van Buren was the last Democrat before LBJ to win here (1836*).  

Obama fell short by 68 votes in 2008 and 733 votes in 2012.  

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

PQG, surely Van Buren won Ontario County in 1836, not 1832 (when Van Buren was Andrew Jackson's running mate rather than the head of the ticket)?