2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[DINGO Joe]

So in all seriousness....does anybody actually know why New York counts votes slower than Trump walks down the West Point ramp?

Well, by law, they can't even start till like a week or ten days after election day.  And then, unlike many places, they don't provide updates of partial counts, they don't report until everything is done.

[Alben Barkley]

They unstickied the thread!

Well gentlemen (and ladies), it has been a privilege posting with you these past few weeks. But it looks like the 2020 election season is just about (finally) over.

[ProgressiveModerate]

[Catalyst138]

Yeah Obama won the tipping point state by 5.4%, Biden has won it by just 0.6%. Sadly, in the American system that's what matters.

The fact that in both 2012 and 2008 the tipping point state was Colorado feels very weird looking back at it. Colorado didn’t really feel like a crucial battleground either time, more emphasis was placed on OH, FL, VA and PA.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah Obama won the tipping point state by 5.4%, Biden has won it by just 0.6%. Sadly, in the American system that's what matters.

The fact that in both 2012 and 2008 the tipping point state was Colorado feels very weird looking back at it. Colorado didn’t really feel like a crucial battleground either time, more emphasis was placed on OH, FL, VA and PA.

Both cycles it was considered a tossup though. CO was a relative new swing state; FL and OH were more sensational because they were the larger prizes, same with PA, and VA had gotten a lot of media. CO never really got that.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yeah Obama won the tipping point state by 5.4%, Biden has won it by just 0.6%. Sadly, in the American system that's what matters.

The fact that in both 2012 and 2008 the tipping point state was Colorado feels very weird looking back at it. Colorado didn’t really feel like a crucial battleground either time, more emphasis was placed on OH, FL, VA and PA.

Both cycles it was considered a tossup though. CO was a relative new swing state; VA and OH were more sensational because they were the larger prizes, same with PA, and VA had gotten a lot of media. CO never really got that.

CO will probably never get that kind of attention. Its days as a swing state are passed.

[GeorgiaModerate]

ProgressiveModerate: could you make Georgia (and presumably Arizona when it certifies) just a little bit darker?  That extremely light blue is almost indistinguishable from a non-certified state.

[n1240]

Dane/Milwaukee recount status:

Dane: 11.2% of vote recounted, Biden loses 35 votes, Trump loses 13 votes, Trump net of 22 votes
Milwaukee: 12.6% of vote recounted, Biden gains 1 vote, Trump gains 1 vote, net of 0 votes

Milwaukee City and Madison currently do not have any votes tabulated for their recounts yet.

update:

Dane: 23.2% of vote recounted, Biden loses 51 votes, Trump loses 10 votes, Trump net of 41 votes
Milwaukee: no change, will check later

Dane: 36.2% of vote recounted, Biden loses 81 votes, Trump loses 15 votes, Trump net of 66 votes
Milwaukee: 25.7% of vote recounted, Biden gains 3 votes, Trump loses 6 votes, Biden net of 9 votes

note: nothing from Milwaukee city or Madison (they don't seem to report results until full municipalities are counted)

Dane: 46.7% of vote recounted, Biden loses 83 votes, Trump loses 17 Votes, Trump net of 66 votes
Milwaukee: 41.0% of vote recounted, Biden gains 10 votes, Trump loses 4 votes, Biden net of 14 votes

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1331600051429367810
Only Putin is left.

Русские своих на войне не бросают.

[Person Man]

Prediction: this thread probably hits 300 pages and the site will crash multiple times.

This, a thousand times this.

Almost 800...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Prediction: this thread probably hits 300 pages and the site will crash multiple times.

This, a thousand times this.

Almost 800...

779 pages to date. That's certainly something. Longest running thread in Atlas history.

[Nyvin]

ProgressiveModerate: could you make Georgia (and presumably Arizona when it certifies) just a little bit darker?  That extremely light blue is almost indistinguishable from a non-certified state.

I agree, it's a terrible gradient, almost painful to look at

[Skill and Chance]

Yeah Obama won the tipping point state by 5.4%, Biden has won it by just 0.6%. Sadly, in the American system that's what matters.

The fact that in both 2012 and 2008 the tipping point state was Colorado feels very weird looking back at it. Colorado didn’t really feel like a crucial battleground either time, more emphasis was placed on OH, FL, VA and PA.

Both cycles it was considered a tossup though. CO was a relative new swing state; VA and OH were more sensational because they were the larger prizes, same with PA, and VA had gotten a lot of media. CO never really got that.

CO will probably never get that kind of attention. Its days as a swing state are passed.

I think geographic isolation from the rest of the swing states of its era was a big factor.  Colorado had <10 EV and was in a different time zone from every other competitive state.  Consider how national Republicans poured resources into Virginia much longer than they ever should have because it was right next to DC. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yeah Obama won the tipping point state by 5.4%, Biden has won it by just 0.6%. Sadly, in the American system that's what matters.

The fact that in both 2012 and 2008 the tipping point state was Colorado feels very weird looking back at it. Colorado didn’t really feel like a crucial battleground either time, more emphasis was placed on OH, FL, VA and PA.

Both cycles it was considered a tossup though. CO was a relative new swing state; VA and OH were more sensational because they were the larger prizes, same with PA, and VA had gotten a lot of media. CO never really got that.

CO will probably never get that kind of attention. Its days as a swing state are passed.

I think geographic isolation from the rest of the swing states of its era was a big factor.  Colorado had <10 EV and was in a different time zone from every other competitive state.  Consider how national Republicans poured resources into Virginia much longer than they ever should have because it was right next to DC. 

Good point.
It might have been different if NM and AZ were massively up for grabs as well in the 2010s?

[Helsinkian]

Seen people sharing this tweet -- assuming it's partly/entirely BS, as it's from Epoch Times, but I don't know enough about the process to say for sure. Does anyone know what it's about?

https://twitter.com/IvanPentchoukov/status/1331643258024456192

[Skill and Chance]

Yeah Obama won the tipping point state by 5.4%, Biden has won it by just 0.6%. Sadly, in the American system that's what matters.

The fact that in both 2012 and 2008 the tipping point state was Colorado feels very weird looking back at it. Colorado didn’t really feel like a crucial battleground either time, more emphasis was placed on OH, FL, VA and PA.

Both cycles it was considered a tossup though. CO was a relative new swing state; VA and OH were more sensational because they were the larger prizes, same with PA, and VA had gotten a lot of media. CO never really got that.

CO will probably never get that kind of attention. Its days as a swing state are passed.

I think geographic isolation from the rest of the swing states of its era was a big factor.  Colorado had <10 EV and was in a different time zone from every other competitive state.  Consider how national Republicans poured resources into Virginia much longer than they ever should have because it was right next to DC. 

Good point.
It might have been different if NM and AZ were massively up for grabs as well in the 2010s?

I'm sure it would have been.  Also, thinking about 2020, Biden probably didn't give AZ/NV enough attention for this reason.  He probably hit the saturation point in PA long before election day, and the convenience stops in OH were the Dem version of the 2018 RNC spending in NOVA.   

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yeah Obama won the tipping point state by 5.4%, Biden has won it by just 0.6%. Sadly, in the American system that's what matters.

The fact that in both 2012 and 2008 the tipping point state was Colorado feels very weird looking back at it. Colorado didn’t really feel like a crucial battleground either time, more emphasis was placed on OH, FL, VA and PA.

Both cycles it was considered a tossup though. CO was a relative new swing state; VA and OH were more sensational because they were the larger prizes, same with PA, and VA had gotten a lot of media. CO never really got that.

CO will probably never get that kind of attention. Its days as a swing state are passed.

I think geographic isolation from the rest of the swing states of its era was a big factor.  Colorado had <10 EV and was in a different time zone from every other competitive state.  Consider how national Republicans poured resources into Virginia much longer than they ever should have because it was right next to DC. 

Good point.
It might have been different if NM and AZ were massively up for grabs as well in the 2010s?

I'm sure it would have been.  Also, thinking about 2020, Biden probably didn't give AZ/NV enough attention for this reason.  He probably hit the saturation point in PA long before election day, and the convenience stops in OH were the Dem version of the 2018 RNC spending in NOVA.   

More generally, the American West had/has a ton of really safe states (UT, MT, WY, ID for Rs; WA, OR, CA, NM for Ds). This can disincentivize a "Western strategy".

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Prediction: this thread probably hits 300 pages and the site will crash multiple times.

This, a thousand times this.

Almost 800...

I am stunned that this site didn't crash on election night.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Seen people sharing this tweet -- assuming it's partly/entirely BS, as it's from Epoch Times, but I don't know enough about the process to say for sure. Does anyone know what it's about?

https://twitter.com/IvanPentchoukov/status/1331643258024456192

Yeah... I'm not seeing anything from a credible news source confirming this.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Prediction: this thread probably hits 300 pages and the site will crash multiple times.

This, a thousand times this.

Almost 800...

I am stunned that this site didn't crash on election night.

You can thank Dave Leip and Virginia for the server upgrades and improvements.  Amazing job.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Seen people sharing this tweet -- assuming it's partly/entirely BS, as it's from Epoch Times, but I don't know enough about the process to say for sure. Does anyone know what it's about?

https://twitter.com/IvanPentchoukov/status/1331643258024456192

Yeah... I'm not seeing anything from a credible news source confirming this.

The only thing I've seen that might be related is this:

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1331642060269613060

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Seen people sharing this tweet -- assuming it's partly/entirely BS, as it's from Epoch Times, but I don't know enough about the process to say for sure. Does anyone know what it's about?

https://twitter.com/IvanPentchoukov/status/1331643258024456192

Yeah... I'm not seeing anything from a credible news source confirming this.

The only thing I've seen that might be related is this:

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1331642060269613060

For some reason, MAGA twitter thinks this means the certification has been blocked.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Prediction: this thread probably hits 300 pages and the site will crash multiple times.

This, a thousand times this.

Almost 800...

I am stunned that this site didn't crash on election night.

You can thank Dave Leip and Virginia for the server upgrades and improvements.  Amazing job.

We have the best modadmins, the best modadmins. No crashes on Election night. Imagine that. People go and tell me, "why did Virginia do so well", I say "look, I like the fact you recognize her greatness, but she's sticking with us". This is the best place, the best place to discuss politics online. Just incredible. Nowhere is better than this site. Best modadmins, best modadmins. The userbase is tremendous. So, I say, "Thank you, thank you, you're so kind. Join the site and you'll have Virginia as your modadmin too." This works every time. Remarkable. Just remarkable. Virginia is the best data modadmin God ever created.

[YE]

This should have been split up at 160 but if the site is still running with it, I’ll leave it up.

With that said, all good (or depending on your point of view, bad) things come to an end. I’ll lock somewhat soon.

[DINGO Joe]

This should have been split up at 160 but if the site is still running with it, I’ll leave it up.

With that said, all good (or depending on your point of view, bad) things come to an end. I’ll lock somewhat soon.

Uh, New York