2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[n1240]

What happened in Arizona?

1,674,507 Biden
1,666,552 Trump
Source: Dave Leip results on this website

I thought Biden had won by over 10,000? Instead he won by 7,955?

Greenlee results are triple counted for some result on Atlas page.

[ucscgaldamez1]

I just saw the official Arizona website, Biden won by 4,202 votes. Wow. That was a super close call. I think at this point all counties have certified their results.

https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/18/0

[Tender Branson]

NV certified as +2.39% for Biden.

This means NV did swing to Trump by 0.03% ...

[Skill and Chance]

I just saw the official Arizona website, Biden won by 4,202 votes. Wow. That was a super close call. I think at this point all counties have certified their results.

https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/18/0

Interesting.  What updated?  The recount threshold in AZ is 0.1% and we are very close to that now if these aren't the final results.  If this is final, it means GA voted left of AZ!

[n1240]

Is the heavy GOP swing in Rockland because of its large Orthodox Jewish population?

This is what I'm assuming, I may try and run through precinct data actually and see if I can detect swings outside of Ramapo though.

2016 vs 2020 margin by township in Rockland:

Clarkstown: Clinton+8.1% to Biden+15.3% (7.2% swing D)
Haverstraw: Clinton+23.3% to Biden+23.6% (.3% swing D)
Orangetown: Clinton+2.1% to Biden+9.2% (7.1% swing D)
Ramapo: Clinton+7.4% to Trump+19.0% (26.4% swing R)
Stony Point: Trump+28.4% to Trump+17.4% (11.0% swing D)

Confirms that Rockland swinging to Trump was completely driven by a massive swing of Orthodox Jewish people in his direction.

[ucscgaldamez1]

I guess Greenlee is obviously wrong data on the AZ official election division website too?

Greenlee   100.00%   
Biden 7,092
 Trump 14,598
Total vote 22,110

[brucejoel99]

I just saw the official Arizona website, Biden won by 4,202 votes. Wow. That was a super close call. I think at this point all counties have certified their results.

https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/18/0

Interesting.  What updated?  The recount threshold in AZ is 0.1% and we are very close to that now if these aren't the final results.  If this is final, it means GA voted left of AZ!

The recount threshold in AZ is 0.1% or 200 votes, whichever is smaller. In this case, we're obviously well past the point of the threshold being 200 votes, so we're good here.

[ucscgaldamez1]

Greenlee official canvass report:

https://www.co.greenlee.az.us/pdf/2020%20General%20Election%20Canvass.pdf

[BudgieForce]

I just saw the official Arizona website, Biden won by 4,202 votes. Wow. That was a super close call. I think at this point all counties have certified their results.

https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/18/0

Something got screwed up with Greenlee County. They went from about 3,000 votes in 2016 to 22,000 this year. I think there's a website error because other sources list Greenlee at 3685 yet the SoS website has Greenlee at 22,110.

[BudgieForce]

Greenlee official canvass report:

https://www.co.greenlee.az.us/pdf/2020%20General%20Election%20Canvass.pdf

Yep. The SoS website needs to get fixed.

[ucscgaldamez1]

Let's start a twitter campaign to get the AZ Secretary of State to correct the record, especially if you look over the final canvass report from Greenlee. Trump will go crazy with the wrong info!

[DINGO Joe]

I guess Greenlee is obviously wrong data on the AZ official election division website too?

Greenlee   100.00%   
Biden 7,092
 Trump 14,598
Total vote 22,110

Considering that Greenlee has 4800 registered voters that's a little off.  I guess Rudy drove by with a van of votes.

[BudgieForce]

Let's start a twitter campaign to get the AZ Secretary of State to correct the record, especially if you look over the final canvass report from Greenlee. Trump will go crazy with the wrong info!

Thankfully Biden won the state by a large enough margin where an 18,000 voter discrepancy wouldn't change the result. I sent a message to the Board of Elections on the SoS website, but i doubt anyone will get it. I assume the numbers will get fixed when the state gets officially certified.

[BudgieForce]

Katie Hobb's office has a phone number. Maybe I should call? 

[Tender Branson]

NC has certified:

RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) — The North Carolina State Board of Elections certified the results of the November general election on Tuesday, awarding the state’s 15 electoral votes to President Donald Trump.

The certification does not formalize the results in the statewide race for state Supreme Court chief justice between Republican Paul Newby and Democrat Cheri Beasley. Out of nearly 5.4 million cast, Newby leads by about 400 votes, as of Tuesday. Both candidates have pending protests in the race that went to a recount.

Democratic President-elect Joe Biden fell short of Trump in the state by 1.3 percentage points, a narrower defeat than the 1.7-point loss Democratic senate candidate Cal Cunningham had to Republican Sen. Thom Tillis. Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper defeated GOP challenger Dan Forest by 4.5 percentage points.

The five-member board tasked with overseeing elections voted 4-1 to certify the results. Former Republican state Sen. Tommy Tucker said he opposed certification because of a legal settlement approved by the state board and appeals courts that, among other things, extended the deadline for counties to receive mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day.

Tucker, who was not on the board at the time the settlement was reached, called the agreement “unconstitutional,” expressed concerns about the deliberative process that went into it and said the board should have gone through the General Assembly if it wanted to make changes to election laws.

Despite multiple lawsuits by GOP leaders in state and federal court over the extended deadline, both the U.S. Supreme Court and North Carolina’s highest court declined to intervene before the election.

Jeff Carmon, a Democratic member of the board, called Tucker’s comments “dishonorable” and stressed the need to make it easier for people to vote amid the coronavirus pandemic. Damon Circosta, chairman of the state board, said Tucker’s decision not to certify the results was disappointing.

https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-north-carolina-general-elections-14151da0a637f70d1860ae0dc133df69

[ucscgaldamez1]

Yea, hopefully they don't certify the wrong info. Hopefully, this is just a website error.

[jimrtex]

Kinda funny that Delaware was the first state with official results and now Georgia the first state to ascertain Trump’s loss at the National Archives ...

Also: I didn’t know that Stacey Abrams is an Electoral College member for Biden. I thought they’d choose more obscure people for this job.

It depends on the State.

In New York, they are quite prominent: Cuomo, Mr. and Mrs. Clinton, Hochul, etc., though some step aside for campaign workers.

Texas laws prevent electors from holding other public offices, and the resign to run law could actually force resignation if the oath of office is taken. In 2016, two elector-elects did not take the oath because they would have lost their position; two did not because they worked on the staff of congressmen; one because he could in conscience vote for Trump.

In some States electors are chosen at state party conventions, typically be congressional district. If you have a lot of amateurs such as a State dominated by Sanderistas, they can choose electors loyal to the candidate rather than the party (that was what happened in Washington and Colorado).

[Skill and Chance]

It's abundantly clear at this point: the next time we have an election that comes down to a single disputed state, the party that controls the legislature will try to directly assign that state's EV to their candidate after the fact.  IDK what SCOTUS will do, but it will end up there. 

[BudgieForce]

Yea, hopefully they don't certify the wrong info. Hopefully, this is just a website error.

It's 100% a human entree error. The board of elections will certify based on the actual canvass report, not the SoS website.  Even if they did though, it wouldn't make a difference. Even with that error, the state isnt close enough for an automatic recount.

[Storebought]

Yea, hopefully they don't certify the wrong info. Hopefully, this is just a website error.

It's 100% a human entree error. The board of elections will certify based on the actual canvass report, not the SoS website.  Even if they did though, it wouldn't make a difference. Even with that error, the state isnt close enough for an automatic recount.

If that's the case, then someone with higher privileges should alert Dave, because his AZ data uses the phony Greenley County data, too.

[Tender Branson]

NY really needs to reform its election system the next 4 years ...

Vienna, a city of 2 million, counted 400.000 postal ballots in 2 days without pre-processing.

NY, a state of 20 million, counts 1.6 million postal ballots for 6 weeks !

Are Austrian postal ballots actually postal ballots (placed in ordinary mail for delivery to electoral authorities)?

We don’t have public drop boxes if that’s what you mean.

You can either mail it back, or fill it out/cast your ballot right after requesting it at your local municipal office. You can also return it personally later, or on Election Day. Or if you are sick on Election Day you can hand it over to a „flying voting commission.“

[jimrtex]

NY really needs to reform its election system the next 4 years ...

Vienna, a city of 2 million, counted 400.000 postal ballots in 2 days without pre-processing.

NY, a state of 20 million, counts 1.6 million postal ballots for 6 weeks !

Are Austrian postal ballots actually postal ballots (placed in ordinary mail for delivery to electoral authorities)?

We don’t have public drop boxes if that’s what you mean.

You can either mail it back, or fill it out/cast your ballot right after requesting it at your local municipal office. You can also return it personally later, or on Election Day. Or if you are sick on Election Day you can hand it over to a „flying voting commission.“

No, what I meant is if you return via the postal service do you just drop it in the same box that you use for mailing a postcard to your cousin in Vienna, TX (USA), or is there some special procedure. How do they know the ballot is from you?

[Tender Branson]

NY really needs to reform its election system the next 4 years ...

Vienna, a city of 2 million, counted 400.000 postal ballots in 2 days without pre-processing.

NY, a state of 20 million, counts 1.6 million postal ballots for 6 weeks !

Are Austrian postal ballots actually postal ballots (placed in ordinary mail for delivery to electoral authorities)?

We don’t have public drop boxes if that’s what you mean.

You can either mail it back, or fill it out/cast your ballot right after requesting it at your local municipal office. You can also return it personally later, or on Election Day. Or if you are sick on Election Day you can hand it over to a „flying voting commission.“

No, what I meant is if you return via the postal service do you just drop it in the same box that you use for mailing a postcard to your cousin in Vienna, TX (USA), or is there some special procedure. How do they know the ballot is from you?

If you mail it back, you can either drop it off at a Postal Office store, where you’ll get an ID to track it like a parcel to see if it has arrived.

This is the safe option.

But you can also drop it off at a Postal box, of which there are many in each city.

Ahead of an election, the Postal Service empties every box in the country on Saturday or even Sunday morning, so that almost all ballots get delivered by the time polls close on Sunday 5pm.

Therefore, only a very small amount of ballots arrive after poll closing. This was higher in previous years, but the Post introduced these „special emptyings“ to reduce it to single digits.

As for „how do the election authorities know it’s your ballot“:

There is a personal QR code on the back of the outer envelope which involves your voter registration number in the CVR (central voter registry), your precinct, town and election district. And you have to sign the ballot.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JennaEllisEsq/status/1331282127191744512

Do we think she really believes this, or is she just playing the part?

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/JennaEllisEsq/status/1331282127191744512

Do we think she really believes this, or is she just playing the part?

Nah I think she's actually stupid