2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/RAGordon8/status/1324492076839567363?s=20

Can we stop with the random twitter observers? Trump is going to go +15 in Pima? Good luck with that.

I wasnt going to say, but no one would fault you @7sergi9 if you just paraphrased other peoples tweets.

[Horus]

Trump at 49.9% in PA per NYT

[Alcibiades]

https://twitter.com/RAGordon8/status/1324492076839567363?s=20

Can we stop with the random twitter observers? Trump is going to go +15 in Pima? Good luck with that.

I don’t trust anyone with a Spurs logo as their profile picture!

[Angasboy15]

Hmmm could be trouble in Arizona?

What is with Dem bedwetters on this site?

I think I've been highly optimistic basically everywhere since the polls closed but the figures in Arizona surely mean Biden taking the state is no certainty.

Biden will win Arizona.

I'm yet to see a convincing argument for why the Maricopa ballots still out won't continue trending Trump. Do we know these are not later arriving ballots (Monday, Tuesday) which so far have Trump on track?

[BudgieForce]

At the very least, we're getting two Maricopa drops tonight. Should tell us more on where Arizona stands.

[Crumpets]

Trump at 49.9% in PA per NYT

Trump's lead has been cut by 3,000 votes in just the last couple of minutes.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1324493136853262336

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Hmmm could be trouble in Arizona?

What is with Dem bedwetters on this site?

I think I've been highly optimistic basically everywhere since the polls closed but the figures in Arizona surely mean Biden taking the state is no certainty.

Biden will win Arizona.

I'm yet to see a convincing argument for why the Maricopa ballots still out won't continue trending Trump. Do we know these are not later arriving ballots (Monday, Tuesday) which so far have Trump on track?

Two things:
1. Some are late absentees which apparently skew Dem.
2. Evidently Gallego's (very Democratic) district is underreporting.

[Rand]

Trump at 49.9% in PA per NYT

*unzips halfway*

[rhg2052]

At the very least, we're getting two Maricopa drops tonight. Should tell us more on where Arizona stands.

Are we? I figured it was just one at 9PM Eastern/7 PM Mountain

[compucomp]

Hmmm could be trouble in Arizona?

What is with Dem bedwetters on this site?

I think I've been highly optimistic basically everywhere since the polls closed but the figures in Arizona surely mean Biden taking the state is no certainty.

Biden will win Arizona.

I'm yet to see a convincing argument for why the Maricopa ballots still out won't continue trending Trump. Do we know these are not later arriving ballots (Monday, Tuesday) which so far have Trump on track?

Maricopa is a very big county and there are blue areas like the city of Phoenix and Tempe and red areas like the suburbs around them. The question is whether the first batch we saw last night came from a red area, and thus subsequent batches could be more favorable for Biden, or whether that batch was a representative sample of all remaining ballots of Maricopa.

[Andy Hine]

Hmmm could be trouble in Arizona?

What is with Dem bedwetters on this site?

I think I've been highly optimistic basically everywhere since the polls closed but the figures in Arizona surely mean Biden taking the state is no certainty.

Biden will win Arizona.

I'm yet to see a convincing argument for why the Maricopa ballots still out won't continue trending Trump. Do we know these are not later arriving ballots (Monday, Tuesday) which so far have Trump on track?

Later batch is more independent and will not favor Trump by nearly as much.

[HillGoose]

does it look possible rn that north korea might flip

[Bojack Horseman]

Trump at 49.9% in PA per NYT

*unzips halfway*

I think we’re all going to be having a big circle jerk in a little while

[musicblind]

I still can't get over Steven Bannon.

How ... like ... what is wrong with him?

[American2020]

CNN PA
Trump: +75K

[Storr]

Trump below 50% in Pennsylvania!

according to CNN:

Trump 49.9%   3,260,796

Biden 48.8%   3,185,369

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1324494303142563840?s=20

[President Johnson]

Think about it this way, as an incumbent Obama won the popular vote by a 4% margin. Now as an incumbent Trump is on track to lose the popular vote by at least 4%.

Trump always just has to do the opposite of whatever Obama did. And look where it's got him.

He will to the opposite of Hillary as well: 232 electoral votes.

[Progressive Pessimist]

People need to chill re: AZ. Biden is going to win it by 30 or 40k. None of these vote drops indicate anything otherwise. If there was a hint in change of the trajectory, Fox and AP would retract their call.

Who cares anyway when it’s pretty clear Biden is going to take Pennsylvania and that alone would put him over the top?

I think some of us just want Biden's result to seem as impressive as possible and show that Democrats do have a future in some new states. That's been clear in Arizona down-ballot, but it would be nice to see at the presidential level as well.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is Tipernani still ahead in AZ?

[Angasboy15]

Hmmm could be trouble in Arizona?

What is with Dem bedwetters on this site?

I think I've been highly optimistic basically everywhere since the polls closed but the figures in Arizona surely mean Biden taking the state is no certainty.

Biden will win Arizona.

I'm yet to see a convincing argument for why the Maricopa ballots still out won't continue trending Trump. Do we know these are not later arriving ballots (Monday, Tuesday) which so far have Trump on track?

Maricopa is a very big county and there are blue areas like the city of Phoenix and Tempe and red areas like the suburbs around them. The question is whether the first batch we saw last night came from a red area, and thus subsequent batches could be more favorable for Biden, or whether that batch was a representative sample of all remaining ballots of Maricopa.

So sure, I think there's some pretty good arguments Biden is safe. But AP/Fox call was wrong. Far from over.

[Meclazine for Israel]

PA updated.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 68,129 (86% counted)

Of the remaining ~474,300 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 203,000 of them - (42.8%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden down by 9,426 (98.5% counted)

Of the remaining ~75,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 42,300 of them - (56.3%)

PA - Biden down by 75,427 (93% counted)

Of the remaining ~417,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~246,100 of them - (59.0%)

The ratios of votes coming in are:

AZ (Trump : Biden =  54.8%)
NV (Biden : Trump =  56.7%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  62.0%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  80.0%)

Trump is not making up a lot of ground in Arizona.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump below 50% in Pennsylvania!

according to CNN:

Trump 49.9% 3,260,796

Biden 48.8% 3,185,369

As Benjamin Wittes used to tweet...

tick tick tick tick tick

[Rand]

I still can't get over Steven Bannon.

How ... like ... what is wrong with him?

He’s just mad the whole Hunter Biden thing failed.