2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Badger]

I am now fully convinced that the Dems need to completely divorce themselves from the woke academic language and distance themselves from activists that push it. I felt this way earlier but was reluctant to say it. It doesn't help us politically with the average minority voter who do not experience race in those terms nor with the moderate/conservative white voters. It seems to exist solely for elite spaces for white liberals and elite minorities.

One good thing about both Biden and Sanders was that they stayed away from that stuff although some others in the primaries like Gillibrand and Castro dabbled in it. We need to make sure that the same happens going forward as well. Anyone who use the term "intersectionality" or "latinx" should not be nominated for the Democrats up or down the ballot.

Biden did not lose Florida because of woke language
He lost because Trump had conviced a lot of Cuban and Venezuelan Americans that he was communist who supported socialist

you can pick the most anti woke Dem of all time and it wont matter in the end if they are still successfully branded as socialist or communist in places like Florida

remember if you can convince voters that Joe biden of all people is a socialist
than you can do that to any Dem no matter how anti woke they are....

But given that Republicans literally always seek to paint the Democratic nominee as a Castro friendly socialist toddler, right back through Hillary, Obama, Carrie, Gore, Etc. Why on Earth did it work so very well this time? Especially against a candidate like Biden who would be about as difficult to Tar as a wild-eyed radical as a candidate can be?

Myona extremely uninformed hypothesis is a combination of the growing Venezuelan vote. Their having personally dealt with Chavez and Maduro only within the last decade I'm guessing would make them far more susceptible to Republicans waving the red flag. Additionally, although I was very much under the impression that most Cuban Americans outside the true Old Guard supported Obama's attempts to reopen contact with the island through easing travel restrictions, Etc. I guess not, and they actually like Trump's reversal of such policies which made it harder to send money to and visit relatives on the island?

It might have been partially a name recognition thing, combined with a very good outreach operation in Spanish language media that Dems just had no hope of ever beating.
Trump, for better or worse, had a clear name recognition advantage, and this would be magnified in a relatively insular community like the Cubanos.

I wish it were that simple. I can't believe for a second that Joe Biden didn't have sufficient name recognition compared to say Obama in 2008 or even John Kerry in 2004 , both of whom did rather well in Miami.

Likewise, I'd love to say it was a problem Limited merely to Cuban / Venezuelan voters in Miami-Dade, but the abysmal results out of South Texas say otherwise

[/b]

but overall didnt Biden do way better than Hillary in TX

Yes, my doing remarkably well for a democrat in the big city suburbs that it made up for it overall. But FAR worse in th RGV

[lfromnj]

Houston did not move much left

Oil?

[Inmate Trump]

Dems have some work to do, especially with the house races - but it seems the hot takes of what they did badly this cycle may be freezing cold by the time the votes are cast and Biden possibly has a pretty substantial lead in EV and votes.

So by sometime in December?  Joking, but omg at the rate this is going.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I am now fully convinced that the Dems need to completely divorce themselves from the woke academic language and distance themselves from activists that push it. I felt this way earlier but was reluctant to say it. It doesn't help us politically with the average minority voter who do not experience race in those terms nor with the moderate/conservative white voters. It seems to exist solely for elite spaces for white liberals and elite minorities.

One good thing about both Biden and Sanders was that they stayed away from that stuff although some others in the primaries like Gillibrand and Castro dabbled in it. We need to make sure that the same happens going forward as well. Anyone who use the term "intersectionality" or "latinx" should not be nominated for the Democrats up or down the ballot.

Biden did not lose Florida because of woke language
He lost because Trump had conviced a lot of Cuban and Venezuelan Americans that he was communist who supported socialist

you can pick the most anti woke Dem of all time and it wont matter in the end if they are still successfully branded as socialist or communist in places like Florida

remember if you can convince voters that Joe biden of all people is a socialist
than you can do that to any Dem no matter how anti woke they are....

But given that Republicans literally always seek to paint the Democratic nominee as a Castro friendly socialist toddler, right back through Hillary, Obama, Carrie, Gore, Etc. Why on Earth did it work so very well this time? Especially against a candidate like Biden who would be about as difficult to Tar as a wild-eyed radical as a candidate can be?

Myona extremely uninformed hypothesis is a combination of the growing Venezuelan vote. Their having personally dealt with Chavez and Maduro only within the last decade I'm guessing would make them far more susceptible to Republicans waving the red flag. Additionally, although I was very much under the impression that most Cuban Americans outside the true Old Guard supported Obama's attempts to reopen contact with the island through easing travel restrictions, Etc. I guess not, and they actually like Trump's reversal of such policies which made it harder to send money to and visit relatives on the island?

It might have been partially a name recognition thing, combined with a very good outreach operation in Spanish language media that Dems just had no hope of ever beating.
Trump, for better or worse, had a clear name recognition advantage, and this would be magnified in a relatively insular community like the Cubanos.

I wish it were that simple. I can't believe for a second that Joe Biden didn't have sufficient name recognition compared to say Obama in 2008 or even John Kerry in 2004 , both of whom did rather well in Miami.

Likewise, I'd love to say it was a problem Limited merely to Cuban / Venezuelan voters in Miami-Dade, but the abysmal results out of South Texas say otherwise

I don't think the problems in South Florida and South Texas are actually linked.
South Florida was outreach+name rec+scaremongering (which was mutually enforcing with the outreach thing)
South Texas was probably a mixture of abortion politics maybe, outreach, infrequent voters who were unusually likely to be pro-Republican, and the more conservative profile of Tejanos in general. And Joe Biden's Latino outreach was passable overall, not excellent like Trump's.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

My theory as to why socialism fear mongering worked for the GOP is that Joe Biden and the Democratic Party as a whole were seen as close to Bernie Sanders and the “democratic socialist” wing of the party (very stupid branding, btw) as opposed to 2016, when Hillary Clinton was seen as fierce opponent of Sanders and his politics due to the viciousness of the primary.

Trump also did his part by not tying Hillary to Bernie. In fact, he tried to appeal to Sanders primary voters by claiming the DNC had rigged the nomination process. Socialism played almost no role in his campaign and voters did not see any reason to relate it to Clinton.

[Horus]

Houston did not move left

Oil?

I think so.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Prediction from an old election junkie: although this may seem agonizingly slow now, in a few months you'll look back on this time and miss it.

Did you vote for Harrison or Cleveland, GM?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Does anyone remember the 2000 election?

I was too young to really care at the time.  I know there are stark and obvious differences between then and now, but was the anxiety about the same or more intense?

I barely remember it. I think there was more anxiety about how close the race was/how it would turn out because it was closer and more legitimately up in the air (it seems pretty clear Biden is going to end up winning now without too much difficulty), but on the other hand there was more faith back then that the system would fairly resolve it (until the Supreme Court decided to put its finger on the scale). Our institutions and general public confidence in them have degraded since then, unfortunately.

[Inmate Trump]

My theory as to why socialism fear mongering worked for the GOP is that Joe Biden and the Democratic Party as a whole was seen as close to Bernie Sanders and the “democratic socialist” wing of the party (very stupid branding, btw) as opposed to 2016, when Hillary Clinton was seen as fierce opponent of Sanders and his brand due to the viciousness of the primary.

Trump also did his part by not tying Hillary to Bernie. In fact, he tried to appeal to Sanders primary voters by claiming the DNC had rigged the nomination process. Socialism played almost no role in his campaign and voters did not see any reason to relate it to Clinton.

Yea, and Bernie by many accounts was in position to win the primary for a while there.  The primary and its candidates were tied up with Bernie Sanders.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I am now fully convinced that the Dems need to completely divorce themselves from the woke academic language and distance themselves from activists that push it. I felt this way earlier but was reluctant to say it. It doesn't help us politically with the average minority voter who do not experience race in those terms nor with the moderate/conservative white voters. It seems to exist solely for elite spaces for white liberals and elite minorities.

One good thing about both Biden and Sanders was that they stayed away from that stuff although some others in the primaries like Gillibrand and Castro dabbled in it. We need to make sure that the same happens going forward as well. Anyone who use the term "intersectionality" or "latinx" should not be nominated for the Democrats up or down the ballot.

Biden did not lose Florida because of woke language
He lost because Trump had conviced a lot of Cuban and Venezuelan Americans that he was communist who supported socialist

you can pick the most anti woke Dem of all time and it wont matter in the end if they are still successfully branded as socialist or communist in places like Florida

remember if you can convince voters that Joe biden of all people is a socialist
than you can do that to any Dem no matter how anti woke they are....

But given that Republicans literally always seek to paint the Democratic nominee as a Castro friendly socialist toddler, right back through Hillary, Obama, Carrie, Gore, Etc. Why on Earth did it work so very well this time? Especially against a candidate like Biden who would be about as difficult to Tar as a wild-eyed radical as a candidate can be?

Myona extremely uninformed hypothesis is a combination of the growing Venezuelan vote. Their having personally dealt with Chavez and Maduro only within the last decade I'm guessing would make them far more susceptible to Republicans waving the red flag. Additionally, although I was very much under the impression that most Cuban Americans outside the true Old Guard supported Obama's attempts to reopen contact with the island through easing travel restrictions, Etc. I guess not, and they actually like Trump's reversal of such policies which made it harder to send money to and visit relatives on the island?

It might have been partially a name recognition thing, combined with a very good outreach operation in Spanish language media that Dems just had no hope of ever beating.
Trump, for better or worse, had a clear name recognition advantage, and this would be magnified in a relatively insular community like the Cubanos.

I wish it were that simple. I can't believe for a second that Joe Biden didn't have sufficient name recognition compared to say Obama in 2008 or even John Kerry in 2004 , both of whom did rather well in Miami.

Likewise, I'd love to say it was a problem Limited merely to Cuban / Venezuelan voters in Miami-Dade, but the abysmal results out of South Texas say otherwise

John Kerry did not do well in Miami-Dade, he won it by 6.2 Points while Biden won it by 7.3. Bush also won FL by more than 5 points

[It’s so Joever]

Houston did not move much left

Oil?

And likely a working class Hispanic swing helped.
Precinct level data will be telling.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Prediction from an old election junkie: although this may seem agonizingly slow now, in a few months you'll look back on this time and miss it.

Did you vote for Harrison or Cleveland, GM?

Which Harrison?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I would not be all that shocked if abortion (ACB and all) had a role in Latinos being less Dem than last time.

[BlueSwan]

Reading some right wing stuff around the net. These people really seem completely convinced that the entire election is one big fix. The levels of delusion is sad and super dangerous. I have been of the opinion than Joe Biden is the right president for this moment in time, but if the majority of Trumpists think that Biden flat out stole the election, then there is not going to be any healing. Just one further reason why it is too bad that Biden didn't win in an undisputed landslide, although I guess Trump would have claimed voter fraud even if he was blown out by 15 points.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Prediction from an old election junkie: although this may seem agonizingly slow now, in a few months you'll look back on this time and miss it.

Did you vote for Harrison or Cleveland, GM?

Which Harrison?

THAT'S your issue with what I said??

[Illiniwek]

Prediction from an old election junkie: although this may seem agonizingly slow now, in a few months you'll look back on this time and miss it.

Did you vote for Harrison or Cleveland, GM?

Which Harrison?

The one who faced Cleveland?

[Pick Up the Phone]

Sen. Bob Casey: No future Republican candidate (president, governor) will ever be as effective in PA as Donald Trump

He's right.  Trump spoke to rural whites in places like that in a way others like Ted Cruz will never relate.  That's what's scary for the GOP post Trump.  Without him on the ballot they can't rely on states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.  The blue wall might be back but bigger than ever with Colorado + Nevada + Arizona + Virginia + Georgia.

That’s exactly how I see it. Trump was an incredibly flawed candidate but an effective campaigner. There are probably many voters who would not bother going to the polls if it were not to save their hero DJT.

[Blair]

FWIW Rick Scott over-performing in 2018 makes me think this is also a story of very good republican outreach (combined with lackluster democratic rebuttal)

[Hammy]

Secret Service and FAA know who the next POTUS is:

https://twitter.com/SenWhitehouse/status/1324431035606700033?s=20

President-elect Joe Biden. God, I love that.

Do you really? Or do you just like that the democrats will be back in the white house?

Most democrats I know, all agree that Biden is an awful candidate on the basis that after 47 years he's still achieved nothing in politics, is likely taking corrupt money from foreign governments and changes his positions on core policies to suit the mood.

Yes, yes, we know, you need to project to make yourself feel better about voting for Trump.

[wbrocks67]

Trump lead down to +108K in PA. We're getting to the point where Trumps margin is essentially going to be under what Philly has still to come by itself

[ProgressiveModerate]

What about Military ballots in GA?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Prediction from an old election junkie: although this may seem agonizingly slow now, in a few months you'll look back on this time and miss it.

Did you vote for Harrison or Cleveland, GM?

Which Harrison?

The one who faced Cleveland?

Yeah, I meant to type "which time?" (which would have made sense and been much funnier) but my fingers got in the way.

[Inmate Trump]

Reading some right wing stuff around the net. These people really seem completely convinced that the entire election is one big fix. The levels of delusion is sad and super dangerous. I have been of the opinion than Joe Biden is the right president for this moment in time, but if the majority of Trumpists think that Biden flat out stole the election, then there is not going to be any healing. Just one further reason why it is too bad that Biden didn't win in an undisputed landslide, although I guess Trump would have claimed voter fraud even if he was blown out by 15 points.

I think a majority of Republicans probably realize this is going fair and square.  The Trumpists are just so loud that they drown out everyone else around them.  I want to believe they are a minority in the opposition party.

[Blair]

Secret Service and FAA know who the next POTUS is:

https://twitter.com/SenWhitehouse/status/1324431035606700033?s=20

President-elect Joe Biden. God, I love that.

Do you really? Or do you just like that the democrats will be back in the white house?

Most democrats I know, all agree that Biden is an awful candidate on the basis that after 47 years he's still achieved nothing in politics, is likely taking corrupt money from foreign governments and changes his positions on core policies to suit the mood.

This is a thread to discuss election results. To keep ourselves sane we go off topic & joke around but please don't just post stupid talking points- you're not on the sunday shows.

[skbl17]

Georgia update:

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1324443575489232897

Watching the SoS press conference: there are 8,899 UOCAVA (overseas and military ballots) issued, but the question is how many of them are postmarked and how many will arrive by tomorrow afternoon, the deadline. We don't know.