2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

When is the Milwaukee vote dump?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

When is the Milwaukee vote dump?

A couple minutes now

Goodie.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Biden has taken the lead in Wisconsin according to DDHQ.

Is this taking into account the Kenosha absentees being counted?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Vote dump happened. LEAD SWITCH. Biden winning the state by 2k votes.

CANNOT WAIT FOR THIS KORNACKI MOMENT

Green Bay Joe!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

One underrated factor in Biden leading in WI is Trump losing support in places like Winnebago County. It voted 49-42 Trump in 2016, but that margin has shrunk to 51-47 this time.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

BIDEN PULLS AHEAD IN WI THANK YOU MILWAUKEE

God Bless the People of Wisconsin! Free cheese for everyone!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How come everyone is excited about Wisconsin?

Isn’t there way more outstanding GOP vote?

Have you any evidence of that? i.e. a lot more outstanding likely Republican ballots vs likely Dem ones?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wisconsin looks almost done and I am too.

Gn homies. Was fun spending the night with y'all

Sleep well!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I went to bed at 11AM, all but assuming Trump was going to win. Literally went through the five stages of grief.

Waking up to a early morning break towards Biden with narrow margins is something else. This election night seemed designed to stress as many people as possible regardless of party affiliation. I don't see how you all-nighter folk could do it.

I've been awake since 11 am yesterday. I've been optimistic all night. But I've also been absorbed in 538 and been data-driven to a large extent.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1323926165590052864

What's the worst case scenario in regards to how Green Bay votes?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Winnebago County has voted for the winner in every presidential election since 1992. That streak is more likely that not to be broken tonight.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Are we at a relative stand-still in AZ?

Is AZ not safe it seems like it’s tightening fast

It was called a long time ago.

It would seem that they are mainly counting ED votes. And that's why it's tightening. Biden votes got front-loaded.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Are we at a relative stand-still in AZ?

Is AZ not safe it seems like it’s tightening fast

It was called a long time ago.

It would seem that they are mainly counting ED votes. And that's why it's tightening. Biden votes got front-loaded.

I think they might’ve called it too quick

They might have. But Biden's lead in the front-loaded non-ED vote was quite strong, and a majority of votes cast in this election were non-ED. So people came to the sensible conclusion that Biden's lead was so overwhelming that it difficult for him to actually lose the state.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I was a bit uneasy about Fox's projection of Arizona but after they defended it and the AP projected it, I'm confident that they're certain Biden won there.

Fox News' Decision Desk tends to be highly professional, by all accounts.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Many of y'all appear to be forgetting the concept of the "Red Mirage".

PA, WI, and MI are the exact reverse of that, where once again DEM Cities in Swing States in the Midwest are the last to turn out the vote.

Keep Calm, don't panic, fundamental numbers look good in all three States (Plus we got AZ and NE-02 and possibly GA & NC as backups).

Work Swing Shift West Coast, so nowhere close to crash yet tonight.

Is NC not already gone?

Is it?

Says who?

Trump only up 77k by NYT numbers and plenty of votes outstanding (Most likely heavily DEM).

Not to nitpick my friend, but I'm highly curious. What's the latest word on what votes are out there in NC? Numbers? Sources? Presumably all mail in ballots

I mean, you can look yourself at the outstanding votes.
A large chunk of them are in Orange County.

Not too good for Trump in that case. Orange County is among the safest counties for Democrats in the state.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/JJansaSDS/status/1323913419200864256

Slovenian Prime Minister (very much a trumpist Ideologically) first World Leader to congratulate Trump. Not sure this will age well. Could have a real bad impact on relations if Biden wins.

[insert joke relating to Melania here]

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

NATHANIEL RAKICH
NOV. 4, 5:38 AM
It sounds like we will soon get results in Green Bay, one of the few localities in Wisconsin where we know we are still missing some results.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323940482767093760

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I've only been awake for 17 hours. I can stay up longer.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I've only been awake for 17 hours. I can stay up longer.

Nooo go sleep, if but for a few hours.  Take care of yourself, Phil.  

If I go to sleep now then I'll miss the calling of Michigan because knowing me I'll sleep 7 or 8 hours starting now. My circadian rhytm doesn't care about the election.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I plan on hitting the hay after Green Bay dumps its ballots.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It will be immensely frustrating if Biden clinches in WI and MI only to lose in NV.

Well doesn't AZ pad us in that scenario?

AZ certainly helps.
Even in some quasi-doomsday scenarios for Ds involving states east of the Mississippi, they can mitigate that to some extent with their flip out west.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Morning y’all. Based on what I’ve gathered these past 5 minutes on Twitter and here it seems while it will take a while all the remaining states NV/MI/WIS/PENN/GE should be going for Biden just based on what’s left outstanding?

Should be going to him, yes.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

WI still ahead for Biden.

BREAKING NEWS

MI gap just dropped from 200,000 to 64,000 for Biden.

WI - Biden up by 7,121 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~398,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 195,000 of them. (49.1%)

MI - Biden down by 64520 (83% counted)

Of the remaining ~968,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 516,000 of them. (53.3%)

GA - Biden down by 102,134 (92% counted)

Of the remaining ~410,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 256,000 of them. (62.4%)

NC - Biden down by 76,737 (95% counted)

Of the remaining~ 283,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 180,000 of them. (63.5%)

PA - Biden down by 678,000 (74% counted)

Of the remaining ~1,867,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 1,272,000 of them. (67.7%)

Biden needs to win 2 of the above 5 states to win the Presidency. Based on what I have been looking at it would appear that Biden is going to win the Presidency by the Hawaii margin, where Barack Obama was born.

Much thanks for continuing to update us on these figures.
On that note, I'll hit the hay. I want to be awake when PA, MI, and NV are called.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So I realize it's probably too early to tell, but for the information we have this far is this largely a repeat up 2016 where polls orc wrong necessarily, but rather undecideds broke overwhelmingly for Trump? The difference here of course being that whereas Hillary was in the high forties both nationally and in crucial swing States, Biden was right about 50% which allowed him to squeak out narrow wins in the EV?

Nate had a point where he suggested that a significant amount of what happened could be explained as "Biden could survive a 2016-style polling error while Hillary couldn't". Not saying that it's locked in stone that we have a 2020 polling error of such a type or even a major uniform polling error at all; but rather, the size and consistency of Biden's polling lead allows him to have the luxury of not relying on a narrow path alone for victory.