2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[DaleCooper]

Fox says that there is still 13% of PA ballots left to report and Biden is now only down by about 122k. Looks like the 100k Biden lead could even have been a pretty conservative estimate from Casey.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Trump's % lead in PA officially down below 2% -- now stands at 1.9!

[brucejoel99]

Is Biden gonna win the peach state or nah?

Let me let you in on a little secret .... No

Let me let you in on a little secret .... the numbers don't agree with you. Like, at all.

Biden needs to get 65% of the remaing 60K or so ballots out there in GA. The answer to that question will determine whether or not he takes the lead.

Exactly, & it looks like he's been consistently winning 70+% of the outstanding ballots that come in with each GA vote dump. So he's very much on track to take that lead.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

If we had these numbers on election night, PA and GA would be called by now. Networks are just waiting out of an abundance of caution and/or the desire to stretch every ounce of this.

[forsythvoter]

It's accurate. There are about 60K ballots left and Biden will need 65% of them to take the lead from Trump.

Hold up, GA just went up to 98% on NYT. Are we good there?

[MillennialModerate]

What's going on? Will Biden lose PA? Will we have an update around 12 pm EST?

Dems trying to appeal court order

Why though? Who cares if they watch ...

They can watch through live stream. In the room, they can intimidate.

I get that... although you can hear the conspiracy theorists now

[Del Tachi]

GA is important because all of the officials involved in setting the rules for the election there are Republicans.  If Biden wins GA, that plainly defeats the rigging claim.  

Or, Kemp rigged it for Biden because he wanted to run for reelection in a Biden midterm.

I'm not saying this is true nor do I believe it, but Kemp isn't dumb. He knows his chances would be next to zero with Trump still in office. I don't think he's losing any sleep if Biden wins GA.

It's going to be very interesting to watch Kemp transition from a "red state gov" to a "blue state gov."  Kemp has always been more associated with the urban/"moderate" Chamber of Commerce  wing of the GA-GOP so this is going to be somewhat of a natural evolution for him.  He's not going to become a Deep South version of Charlie Baker to be sure, but I think he'll start sounding  sounding a lot more like Bill Haslam or Mike DeWine than Kristi Noem.  

#'s still look good for Biden in GA, but at this point it's really just all gravy (assuming PA flips.)  All GA does at this point is lull the winning side into hubristic complacency about it going into 2022/24; the results there are essentially going to be a tie.  

This statement doesn’t make sense at all but because you’re butthurt that Biden is flipping it you have to get in a dig I guess.

My point is that, whichever column GA eventually ends-up in, a narrow margin of ~10k votes cannot be interpreted as a sign of some kind of structural advantage for the winner.  GA will be hotly contested in 2022/24 just like it was in 2018/20; flipping it from (non-Atlas) red to blue doesn't change that calculus one iota.  Depending on how the tea leaves are read, Democrats (after winning GA in 2020) could over-invest there in 2022 only to watch it *snap back into a Lean R state during a Biden midterm (which is essentially what happened in North Carolina during 2010/14).  

[Red Velvet]

What happens to Trump after he loses? He simply... goes back to what he used to do before, which is nothing? Probably use his ex-president status to get money and pay his debts?

That’s kinda anticlimactic after the chaos of the last 4 years but it makes sense since life is not a movie or book plot even if politics under Trump were so cartoonish that it looked like it was.

But in the back of my mind I think I expected to have some kind of conclusive ending where the villain is defeated forever or even a redemption plot twist where it was revealed his enemies were the real bad guys. To have a close election with a marginal defeat of Trump is so casual, Republicans will control senate and push Biden to be more conservative and Trumpism will stay so alive after this that it doesn’t really feel like the end lived up to the hype the story set itself for with its middle and beginning.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Please finish counting the votes in this century!

Is this place just a pro-Biden circlejerk or is there a legitimate chance of him winning all the remaining states?

He's very legitimately likely to win PA, NV, & GA. Unlikely to win NC at this point. All-but-impossible to win AK.

Are you sure? You guys are kind of sounding like the 2016 Clinton supporters before enough states were called.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1324335432126136320?s=19

This is why getting the run-off with Ossoff and Warnock is important. Mitch is going to Mitch. And hopefully a Hail Mary happens and Cunningham squeaks out a stunner.

Not happening. Ossoff couldnt win the main election and trailed Biden badly. If Dems have the White House in January, Republicans will turn out in droves to keep the senate. Turnout for runoffs, even in 2008 when a filibuster proof majority was at stake, has favored Rs

Ok. One, all you Doom sayers or haters have been wrong on a lot of things. Second, elecorates change, new voter registration is until December 7th for Georgia to vote in that election. The narrative is different and Ossoff with Warnock (who is running against an unpopular Senator) could drive turnout. At least having the chance, no where did I say he would win but at least get the chance. But please go doom say somewhere else, you guys are super annoying.

I hope both the democrats lose. I want divided government.

If that happens Biden won't even be able to appoint a cabinet. McConnell has already signaled that he's not going to approve anyone Biden puts forward unless they are conservative.

Compromise or die.

No u

[Tender Branson]

Hoping for Biden to lose either GA or AZ ...

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

If we had these numbers on election night, PA and GA would be called by now. Networks are just waiting out of an abundance of caution and/or the desire to stretch every ounce of this.

This is the only thing that can explain Steve Kornacki last night not explaining how unlikely the 269-269 "Biden wins Georgia, Trump wins everything else" scenario is. The press really is the enemy of the people, just not in the way Trump says it is.

[Silent Hunter]

Trump is likely to face multiple criminal investigations. That's why he is scared of losing.

[Ancestral Republican]

What happens to Trump after he loses? He simply... goes back to what he used to do before, which is nothing? Probably use his ex-president status to get money and pay his debts?

That’s kinda anticlimactic after the chaos of the last 4 years but it makes sense since life is not a movie or book plot even if politics under Trump were so cartoonish that it looked like it was.

But in the back of my mind I think I expected to have some kind of conclusive ending where the villain is defeated forever or even a redemption plot twist where it was revealed his enemies were the real bad guys. To have a close election with a marginal defeat of Trump is so casual, Republicans will control senate and push Biden to be more conservative and Trumpism will stay so alive after this that it doesn’t really feel like the end lived up to the hype the story set itself for with its middle and beginning.

He's definitely not going to jail like the #resisters think he is.

[charcuterie]

Hoping for Biden to lose either GA or AZ ...

Why?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Hoping for Biden to lose either GA or AZ ...

WHY?

[rhg2052]

Hoping for Biden to lose either GA or AZ ...

Why?

[Malarkey Decider]

Hold up, GA just went up to 98% on NYT. Are we good there?

Holy crap this is going to be close.

[Splash]

Source on the PA vote count being paused? I don't see it anywhere. Is this just a misreading of the Allegheny County situation?

https://twitter.com/MauraBarrettNBC/status/1324393923922579457

[DrScholl]

Hoping for Biden to lose either GA or AZ ...

Why?

Because he bet money and doesn't want to lose it.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Hoping for Biden to lose either GA or AZ ...

Why?

Because he bet money and doesn't want to lose it.

I've been moderated for sharing my thoughts on Tender as a person in the past, so I'm going to demur here.

[Alben Barkley]

Oh boy.

https://twitter.com/MacFarlaneNews/status/1324382660232388608?s=20

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

People are very much overestimating how conservative Kemp is. His 2018 campaign exagerated aspects of his political ethos.

[Tender Branson]

Hoping for Biden to lose either GA or AZ ...

Why?

Because I have a 50€ bet on William Hill, in which I would win 450€ if Trump ends somewhere between 240 and 268 EV.

If he wins both states, Trump drops below 240 EV ...

[brucejoel99]

Please finish counting the votes in this century!

Is this place just a pro-Biden circlejerk or is there a legitimate chance of him winning all the remaining states?

He's very legitimately likely to win PA, NV, & GA. Unlikely to win NC at this point. All-but-impossible to win AK.

Are you sure? You guys are kind of sounding like the 2016 Clinton supporters before enough states were called.

Yes.

Biden is already in the lead in NV with the bulk of the outstanding vote there from Democratic Clark County, & he's consistently winning PA & GA vote dumps by more-than-sufficient margins to be in the lead there when all's said & done. This isn't delusion. It's simple math.