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February 25, 2021, 02:23:09 AM
Talk Elections
Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
2020 U.S. Presidential Election
2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
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IA - Data for Progress: Trump +2
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Topic: IA - Data for Progress: Trump +2 (Read 557 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 6,805
IA - Data for Progress: Trump +2
«
on:
November 02, 2020, 08:41:01 PM »
https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2020/11/2020-election-polls/toplines/dfp_ia_11.2.20.pdf
Oct 27-Nov 1
951 likely voters
MoE: 3.2%
Changes with Oct 8-11
Trump 49 (+1)
Biden 47 (n/c)
Jorgensen 3 (+1)
Hawkins 1 (+1)
Other candidate or write-in 1 (not previously included)
Not sure previously at 3%
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,368
Re: IA - Data for Progress: Trump +2
«
Reply #1 on:
November 02, 2020, 08:42:27 PM »
Greenfield leads 49-45. Does anyone know why this pollster has more generous number for downballot democrats?
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ProgressiveModerate
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 5,683
Re: IA - Data for Progress: Trump +2
«
Reply #2 on:
November 02, 2020, 08:44:00 PM »
Quote from: Bootes Void on November 02, 2020, 08:42:27 PM
Greenfield leads 49-45. Does anyone know why this pollster has more generous number for downballot democrats?
Because the senate is more competative. Republican pollsters are more likely to have Rs doing better down ballot while that is flipped on it's head if you use D pollsters
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BudgieForce
YaBB God
Posts: 4,103
Re: IA - Data for Progress: Trump +2
«
Reply #3 on:
November 02, 2020, 08:46:08 PM »
Quote from: Bootes Void on November 02, 2020, 08:42:27 PM
Greenfield leads 49-45. Does anyone know why this pollster has more generous number for downballot democrats?
Selzer also had Greenfield outperforming Biden.
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swf541
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,745
Re: IA - Data for Progress: Trump +2
«
Reply #4 on:
November 02, 2020, 08:46:49 PM »
Quote from: BudgieForce on November 02, 2020, 08:46:08 PM
Quote from: Bootes Void on November 02, 2020, 08:42:27 PM
Greenfield leads 49-45. Does anyone know why this pollster has more generous number for downballot democrats?
Selzer also had Greenfield outperforming Biden.
Yep, if Iowa is close then Greenfield has a very good chance.
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,368
Re: IA - Data for Progress: Trump +2
«
Reply #5 on:
November 02, 2020, 08:47:45 PM »
Quote from: BudgieForce on November 02, 2020, 08:46:08 PM
Quote from: Bootes Void on November 02, 2020, 08:42:27 PM
Greenfield leads 49-45. Does anyone know why this pollster has more generous number for downballot democrats?
Selzer also had Greenfield outperforming Biden.
I wasnt referring to just Iowa, but to all the other states this pollster has polled
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VAR
VARepublican
YaBB God
Posts: 4,757
Political Matrix
E: 0.90, S: -1.57
Re: IA - Data for Progress: Trump +2
«
Reply #6 on:
November 02, 2020, 08:47:53 PM »
My guess is she overperforms Biden by 1-2%, but nothing more (I hope).
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Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Star
Posts: 20,644
Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65
Re: IA - Data for Progress: Trump +2
«
Reply #7 on:
November 02, 2020, 08:50:12 PM »
I wish Biden were leading, but this still adds up well with the rest of their polls and the indication of a pretty decent national Biden win.
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Hammy
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 8,237
Re: IA - Data for Progress: Trump +2
«
Reply #8 on:
November 02, 2020, 08:51:04 PM »
What? No 10+ pages in three minutes?
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Lief 🐋
Lief
Atlas Legend
Posts: 42,095
IA: Data 4 Progress: Trump +2
«
Reply #9 on:
November 02, 2020, 09:30:59 PM »
New Poll:
Iowa President by Data 4 Progress on 2020-11-01
Summary: D: 47%, R: 49%, U: 0%
Poll Source URL:
Full Poll Details
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EastOfEden
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,737
Re: IA - Data for Progress: Trump +2
«
Reply #10 on:
November 02, 2020, 09:31:01 PM »
Tossup.
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Hollywood
Jr. Member
Posts: 886
Re: IA - Data for Progress: Trump +2
«
Reply #11 on:
November 02, 2020, 10:14:00 PM »
It's simple. Democrats thought they would have a 35-40 point lead with early votes in Iowa, and now it looks like they will only have a 20 point lead going into election day. Selzer had Biden leading Trump with early voters by 23%, and then showed Trump getting that huge turnout on election day that every other pollster had been showing. Iowa looks like a lean/safe Trump state.
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