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February 25, 2021, 02:23:09 AM

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE, ON Progressive)
  IA - Data for Progress: Trump +2		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: IA - Data for Progress: Trump +2  (Read 557 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
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« on: November 02, 2020, 08:41:01 PM »
https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2020/11/2020-election-polls/toplines/dfp_ia_11.2.20.pdf

Oct 27-Nov 1
951 likely voters
MoE: 3.2%
Changes with Oct 8-11

Trump 49 (+1)
Biden 47 (n/c)
Jorgensen 3 (+1)
Hawkins 1 (+1)
Other candidate or write-in 1 (not previously included)

Not sure previously at 3%
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2020, 08:42:27 PM »
Greenfield leads 49-45. Does anyone know why this pollster has more generous number for downballot democrats?
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2020, 08:44:00 PM »
Quote from: Bootes Void on November 02, 2020, 08:42:27 PM
Greenfield leads 49-45. Does anyone know why this pollster has more generous number for downballot democrats?

Because the senate is more competative. Republican pollsters are more likely to have Rs doing better down ballot while that is flipped on it's head if you use D pollsters
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2020, 08:46:08 PM »
Quote from: Bootes Void on November 02, 2020, 08:42:27 PM
Greenfield leads 49-45. Does anyone know why this pollster has more generous number for downballot democrats?

Selzer also had Greenfield outperforming Biden.
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swf541
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2020, 08:46:49 PM »
Quote from: BudgieForce on November 02, 2020, 08:46:08 PM
Quote from: Bootes Void on November 02, 2020, 08:42:27 PM
Greenfield leads 49-45. Does anyone know why this pollster has more generous number for downballot democrats?

Selzer also had Greenfield outperforming Biden.

Yep, if Iowa is close then Greenfield has a very good chance.
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2020, 08:47:45 PM »
Quote from: BudgieForce on November 02, 2020, 08:46:08 PM
Quote from: Bootes Void on November 02, 2020, 08:42:27 PM
Greenfield leads 49-45. Does anyone know why this pollster has more generous number for downballot democrats?

Selzer also had Greenfield outperforming Biden.
I wasnt referring to just Iowa, but to all the other states this pollster has polled
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VAR
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2020, 08:47:53 PM »
My guess is she overperforms Biden by 1-2%, but nothing more (I hope).
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2020, 08:50:12 PM »
I wish Biden were leading, but this still adds up well with the rest of their polls and the indication of a pretty decent national Biden win.
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Hammy
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2020, 08:51:04 PM »
What? No 10+ pages in three minutes?
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Lief 🐋
Lief
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2020, 09:30:59 PM »
New Poll: Iowa President by Data 4 Progress on 2020-11-01

Summary: D: 47%, R: 49%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2020, 09:31:01 PM »
Tossup.
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Hollywood
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2020, 10:14:00 PM »
It's simple.  Democrats thought they would have a 35-40 point lead with early votes in Iowa, and now it looks like they will only have a 20 point lead going into election day.   Selzer had Biden leading Trump with early voters by 23%, and then showed Trump getting that huge turnout on election day that every other pollster had been showing.   Iowa looks like a lean/safe Trump state. 
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