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November 28, 2020, 08:20:26 PM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections
  2020 Senate & House Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  MS - Data for Progress: Hyde-Smith +3
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Author Topic: MS - Data for Progress: Hyde-Smith +3  (Read 717 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
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« on: November 02, 2020, 08:20:33 PM »

https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2020/11/2020-election-polls/toplines/dfp_ms_11.2.20.pdf

Oct 27-Nov 1
562 likely voters
MoE: 4.1%

Hyde-Smith 50%
Espy 47%
Edwards (L) 3%
Other candidate or write-in 1%

Whoa.
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Pericles
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2020, 08:22:20 PM »

And underperforming Trump's margin by 11%. Very weird.
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Unbeatable Titan Gary Peters
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2020, 08:22:49 PM »

WOW! Highly doubt Espy can pull it off. He could definitely do better than 2018 though
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2020, 08:23:12 PM »

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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2020, 08:23:38 PM »

Espy winning would be...odd and would probably indicate that Harrison has won by at least 2-3 points. Republican officials in the deep south would be put on collective notice lol
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2020, 08:25:27 PM »

We’re gonna lose like 5 senate races by like 3 points.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2020, 08:27:19 PM »

THE NEW SOUTH HATH RISEN!
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2020, 08:28:04 PM »

Seriously doubt this.
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One Term Floridian
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2020, 08:30:08 PM »

We’re gonna lose like 5 senate races by like 3 points.

Ugh I hope not!!!
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2020, 08:32:41 PM »

We’re gonna lose like 5 senate races by like 3 points.

1974 redux? Democrats fell JUST short in R-held seats Oklahoma, Kansas and North Dakota while Harry Reid lost a D-held seat to Paul Laxalt by less than 1000 votes. Not to mention the long recount and eventual do-over in New Hampshire.

Bob Dole is glad he won reelection that year because otherwise Bob Dole couldn't have run for VP or president. Bob Dole! 
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Frank
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2020, 08:34:47 PM »

We’re gonna lose like 5 senate races by like 3 points.

1974 redux? Democrats fell JUST short in R-held seats Oklahoma, Kansas and North Dakota while Harry Reid lost a D-held seat to Paul Laxalt by less than 1000 votes. Bob Dole is glad he won reelection that year because otherwise Bob Dole couldn't have run for VP or president. Bob Dole! 

Bob Dole endorses this message.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2020, 08:40:13 PM »

Lol, imagine. This would be one of the biggest upsets ever. Still likely R; I don't buy this.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2020, 08:48:03 PM »

The one group DFP had trouble measuring in the primaries was African Americans. Primary =/= general, but thats all we have to go on for DFP. Therefore, treat this one with a wider MOE when compared to whatever weight DFP polls usually get by your estimation.
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Peak Harry
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2020, 08:49:10 PM »

Don't tease me like this...
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2020, 08:50:31 PM »

Lol, imagine. This would be one of the biggest upsets ever. Still likely R; I don't buy this.
This poll suggests that Espy is outperforming Jim Hood's percentage in last year's governor race..

With Trump at the top of the ballot, that's not happening.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2020, 08:50:58 PM »

Aahhh. No.
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swf541
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« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2020, 08:53:22 PM »

Huh well their toplines for president in this poll seem spot on.......
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DrScholl
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« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2020, 08:55:49 PM »

Espy is winning Independents 56-32 while Biden is winning them only 44-41. He's also getting 8% of Republicans while Biden gets 2%.
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BLORGIA, FIRST OF ITS NAME, BANE OF MILLENIALMODERATE
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« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2020, 08:57:38 PM »

Don't do that. Don't give me hope.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2020, 08:58:24 PM »

Senator Espy wins, wave insurance
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Peak Harry
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« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2020, 09:00:20 PM »

Espy is winning Independents 56-32 while Biden is winning them only 44-41. He's also getting 8% of Republicans while Biden gets 2%.

None of those numbers sound crazy, I'm just skeptical there are so many self-identified Independents to mix Espy up so high.
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2020, 09:01:29 PM »

I was waiting for your analysis..

Likely R to Lean D.
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Oregon Blue Dog
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« Reply #22 on: November 02, 2020, 09:04:25 PM »

And in No-Nut November too.

Shameful.
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Western Democrat
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« Reply #23 on: November 02, 2020, 09:07:37 PM »

And in No-Nut November too.

Shameful.

I don’t believe in No Nut November tbh
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lfromnj
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« Reply #24 on: November 02, 2020, 09:30:33 PM »

Lol, imagine. This would be one of the biggest upsets ever. Still likely R; I don't buy this.
This poll suggests that Espy is outperforming Jim Hood's percentage in last year's governor race..

With Trump at the top of the ballot, that's not happening.

Meh there are actually some counties where Hood did worse than Clinton. Benton was 42 56 Clinton Trump but Reeves +20.
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