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December 05, 2020, 12:05:46 AM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE, ON Progressive)
  KS - Data for Progress: Trump +14%		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: KS - Data for Progress: Trump +14%  (Read 419 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
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« on: November 02, 2020, 07:21:58 PM »
https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2020/11/2020-election-polls/toplines/dfp_ks_11.2.20.pdf

Oct 27-Nov 1
1121 likely voters
MoE: 2.9%
Changes with Sep 14-19

Trump 55% (+7)
Biden 41% (-1)
Jorgensen 3% (n/c)
Hawkins 1% (n/c)
Other candidate or write-in 1% (not previously included)

Undecided previously at 7%
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Lief 🐋
Lief
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2020, 07:22:34 PM »
Corroborates the Selzer poll. Ugh.
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swf541
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2020, 07:22:51 PM »

How lmfao
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Oregon Blue Dog
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2020, 07:22:57 PM »
Woof.

There goes that pipe dream.
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Perdue-Warnock voter 4 Candidate Quality
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2020, 07:23:08 PM »

Bruh
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philly09
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2020, 07:23:44 PM »
Trump won it by 21 in 2016.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2020, 07:24:08 PM »

Huge swing back to Trump in rural areas since a month ago.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2020, 07:24:42 PM »

This shows a 6% shift to the left from 2016...
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2020, 07:25:09 PM »
New Poll: Kansas President by Data 4 Progress on 2020-11-01

Summary: D: 41%, R: 55%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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#SaveTheSenate
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2020, 07:25:52 PM »
Still a decent poll for Trump, all things considered.
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swf541
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2020, 07:26:20 PM »

Yes because Iowa and Kansas vote the same
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2020, 07:27:09 PM »
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on November 02, 2020, 07:24:42 PM

This shows a 6% shift to the left from 2016...

All data, no matter what it says, is good for Trump.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2020, 07:27:20 PM »

This is slightly better than 2008. If anything it points to the sort of wave in the Midwest that Obama generated.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2020, 07:27:38 PM »
Quote from: DaleCooper on November 02, 2020, 07:27:09 PM
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on November 02, 2020, 07:24:42 PM

This shows a 6% shift to the left from 2016...

All data, no matter what it says, is good for Trump.

Of course, sorry for being optimistic
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2020, 07:36:59 PM »

Can you read? The part where it says "undecideds previously at 7%?"

This is listed as no undecideds. It's pretty clear what happened.

Also, at 41% Biden is still outperforming Clinton by 5 points.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2020, 07:44:56 PM »
« Edited: November 02, 2020, 07:48:47 PM by RussFeingoldWasRobbed »
Sorry I don't uy this.....
Trump is a bad fit for Kansas
Is say he only wins by 7-8
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2020, 07:48:00 PM »
Quote from: EastOfEden on November 02, 2020, 07:36:59 PM

Can you read? The part where it says "undecideds previously at 7%?"

This is listed as no undecideds. It's pretty clear what happened.

Also, at 41% Biden is still outperforming Clinton by 5 points.


Perhaps the Shy Trump factor is in the undecideds? 
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swf541
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« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2020, 07:49:26 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on November 02, 2020, 07:48:00 PM
Quote from: EastOfEden on November 02, 2020, 07:36:59 PM

Can you read? The part where it says "undecideds previously at 7%?"

This is listed as no undecideds. It's pretty clear what happened.

Also, at 41% Biden is still outperforming Clinton by 5 points.


Perhaps the Shy Trump factor is in the undecideds? 

Could be, or just the undecideds were more hesitant gop friendly voters.

Or could vary by state/region
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2020, 08:03:28 PM »
Republicans surge in solid red states during the last days of the campaign.. as do Democrats in solid blue states..

Very predictable.
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