Déjà vu

[John Dule]

[ultraviolet]

>RCP

No

[soundchaser]

Alternatively, Trafalgar

[Bootes Void]

RCP includes Trafalgar in their polls lol

[It’s so Joever]

Trust the polls unless they don’t show Biden leading, then they are fake.

[Alben Barkley]

Weird, I don't remember Hillary's leads remaining relatively steady in key states after the Comey letter, or her being nearly so close to 50 (in the vastly superior 538 averages, Biden is at or above 50 in enough states to win, plus ahead in some states RCP shows him behind).

I would ask you exactly what the hell your point is supposed to be, but I think it would be a waste of both our times.

[DaWN]

Tonight on It's The Mind, we examine the phenomenon of Déjà Vu, that strange feeling you sometimes get that you've lived through something before

[ProgressiveModerate]

Try using 538. In the RCP average for PA for instance, there are 9 polls all being equally weighted; 4 of them are Susquehanna, Trafalgar, Rasmussen, and Insider Advantage, all pollsters that have been extremely favorable to Trump.

[John Dule]

Please at least notify me when you guys start to panic so that I know when to panic too.

[ShamDam]

Where's Texas, buddy?

[Hammy]

Yes, lets hug the margins and completely ignore that Hillary also got a higher % than polls gave her.

I've been saying all election undecideds would break for Trump, which is what's happening, but also that the spread wasn't enough to matter. Biden isn't leading with 44% and 20% undecideds.

Plus there are several R internals included in here (while D internals aren't)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Where's Texas, buddy?

Just south of Oklahoma.

[afleitch]

The fact the RCP averages are that jagged shows they are being somewhat selective in what polls they are including.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Where's Texas, buddy?

Just south of Oklahoma.

Ew...don't...describe us like that.  

(Georgia is just northern Florida )

[Alben Barkley]

Yes, lets hug the margins and completely ignore that Hillary also got a higher % than polls gave her.

I've been saying all election undecideds would break for Trump, which is what's happening, but also that the spread wasn't enough to matter. Biden isn't leading with 44% and 20% undecideds.

Plus there are several R internals included in here (while D internals aren't)

Is it really though? I don't think we have nearly enough evidence of that.

Just seems like Trashfalgar/Center for American Carnage polls are f--king up the averages.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Where's Texas, buddy?

Just south of Oklahoma.

Ew...don't...describe us like that.  

(Georgia is just northern Florida )

Oklahoma is just southern KS.

[Hammy]

Here's some actual objective state comparisons, rather than some graphs without context or comparison from a source that excludes polls that don't fit their narrative. At least Atlas has enough OCD people that all the polls make it in.

Minnesota


Iowa


Wisconsin


Michigan


Ohio


Pennsylvania (note: last poll was Susquehanna)


North Carolina


Georgia


Florida


Texas


Arizona




The single biggest takeaway here is that Trump is polling at--or worse--than Hillary was in 2016, and Biden is at or near 50% with significantly less undecideds. Make of it what you will, but don't post

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Where's Texas, buddy?

Just south of Oklahoma.

Ew...don't...describe us like that.  

(Georgia is just northern Florida )

Oklahoma is just southern KS.

If we really want to extend this metaphor, then Texas is just southern southern southern southern southern North Dakota.

[KaiserDave]

Where's Texas, buddy?

Just south of Oklahoma.

Ew...don't...describe us like that.  

(Georgia is just northern Florida )

Oklahoma is just southern KS.

If we really want to extend this metaphor, then Texas is just southern southern southern southern southern North Dakota.

LA is just southern Idaho

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Where's Texas, buddy?

Just south of Oklahoma.

Ew...don't...describe us like that.  

(Georgia is just northern Florida )

Oklahoma is just southern KS.

If we really want to extend this metaphor, then Texas is just southern southern southern southern southern North Dakota.

But North Dakota is just northwestern MN.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Where's Texas, buddy?

Just south of Oklahoma.

Ew...don't...describe us like that.  

(Georgia is just northern Florida )

Oklahoma is just southern KS.

If we really want to extend this metaphor, then Texas is just southern southern southern southern southern North Dakota.

But North Dakota is just northwestern MN.

Oh geez, what have I done?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Where's Texas, buddy?

Just south of Oklahoma.

Ew...don't...describe us like that.  

(Georgia is just northern Florida )

Oklahoma is just southern KS.

If we really want to extend this metaphor, then Texas is just southern southern southern southern southern North Dakota.

LA is just southern Idaho

Oh f#ck you.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Where's Texas, buddy?

Just south of Oklahoma.

Ew...don't...describe us like that.  

(Georgia is just northern Florida )

Oklahoma is just southern KS.

If we really want to extend this metaphor, then Texas is just southern southern southern southern southern North Dakota.

LA is just southern Idaho

Oh f#ck you.

TBF, they're both sort of shaped like boots

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

This election will come down to whether Trafaglar is right and everyone else is wrong or everyone else is right. Including Traf's polls that have consistently shown Trump leading in swing states will skew the average. But, he, and most recently Rasmussen, although they have bumped Biden up, is the only pollster showing Trump having a strong chance at winning.

[It’s so Joever]

Please at least notify me when you guys start to panic so that I know when to panic too.

Last week when each day brought worse early vote numbers than the one before in Florida. The fact that didn’t signal a Trump upset to Atlas is flabbergasting.