Can 306-232 happen again?
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Author Topic: Can 306-232 happen again?  (Read 1302 times)
Catalyst138
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« on: November 02, 2020, 09:06:49 AM »


I was messing around with 270towin and realized that there was a very plausible scenario for Biden to win 306 electoral votes and Trump to win 232 electoral votes, representing an exact inverse scenario from 2016. (Hillary won 232 votes to Trump's 306)

I think this is one of the most likely "non-landslide" scenarios for the election. ME-02 voting to the left of GA and FL might be surprising, but 538 puts ME-02 right next to FL in terms of the average. If the election is like 2 points to the right of where polls show it then this could very well be our map.
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Buzz
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2020, 09:08:37 AM »
Possible although I believe FL would flip before NC.
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2020, 09:13:18 AM »
Yes; this map is highly plausible.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2020, 10:29:41 AM »
Yup, that's entirely possible. You could also flip NC and GA while giving ME-2 to Trump.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2020, 10:31:59 AM »
Highly plausible and hilarious
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2020, 10:32:46 AM »
Quote from: Sir Mohamed on November 02, 2020, 10:29:41 AM
Yup, that's entirely possible. You could also flip NC and GA while giving ME-2 to Trump.

This is honestly a much more likely 306-232 map.
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Blackacre
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2020, 10:44:27 AM »
It would make it the third election in a row where the result was X32 to X06.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2020, 10:47:48 AM »
I would love to see that. Not as much as I'd love to see 413, though.
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Hammy
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2020, 01:59:15 PM »
This would be hilarious
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Rocky Rockefeller
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2020, 02:10:55 PM »
Quote from: Catalyst138 on November 02, 2020, 09:06:49 AM


I was messing around with 270towin and realized that there was a very plausible scenario for Biden to win 306 electoral votes and Trump to win 232 electoral votes, representing an exact inverse scenario from 2016. (Hillary won 232 votes to Trump's 306)

I think this is one of the most likely "non-landslide" scenarios for the election. ME-02 voting to the left of GA and FL might be surprising, but 538 puts ME-02 right next to FL in terms of the average. If the election is like 2 points to the right of where polls show it then this could very well be our map.

I was playing around with 270towin the other day and found this exact scenario as well. Thought it was amusing.

But yes, it's a very plausible map.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2020, 02:13:03 PM »
Quote from: Xing on November 02, 2020, 10:32:46 AM
Quote from: Sir Mohamed on November 02, 2020, 10:29:41 AM
Yup, that's entirely possible. You could also flip NC and GA while giving ME-2 to Trump.

This is honestly a much more likely 306-232 map.

I really doubt it. It looks increasingly unlikely ME-02 is sticking with Trump, and NC is still at least slightly more likely to flip than GA.
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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2020, 02:14:34 PM »
the EC vote is Obama 2012 without Florida
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S019ian Liberal
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2020, 03:14:22 PM »
I don't think so.

Quote from: Sir Mohamed on November 02, 2020, 10:29:41 AM
Yup, that's entirely possible. You could also flip NC and GA while giving ME-2 to Trump.

This scenario, however, is a lot likelier and less ridiculous or fat-attached.
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One Term Floridian
swamiG
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« Reply #13 on: November 10, 2020, 04:20:32 PM »
Wow you kinda/almost called it? Wrong states but the 306 irony seems to be the EV count we're getting
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #14 on: November 10, 2020, 04:23:00 PM »
Quote from: Sir Mohamed on November 02, 2020, 10:29:41 AM
Yup, that's entirely possible. You could also flip NC and GA while giving ME-2 to Trump.

Wow, nice job
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ShamDam
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« Reply #15 on: November 10, 2020, 04:23:40 PM »
Quote from: Sir Mohamed on November 02, 2020, 10:29:41 AM
Yup, that's entirely possible. You could also flip NC and GA while giving ME-2 to Trump.

Welp!
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One Term Floridian
swamiG
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« Reply #16 on: November 10, 2020, 04:37:58 PM »
Quote from: Sir Mohamed on November 02, 2020, 10:29:41 AM
Yup, that's entirely possible. You could also flip NC and GA while giving ME-2 to Trump.

You should have taken this map to Vegas and made it rain $$$
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S019ian Liberal
Beacon
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« Reply #17 on: November 11, 2020, 05:45:10 AM »
Quote from: Life is Inevitable on November 03, 2020, 03:14:22 PM
I don't think so.

Quote from: Sir Mohamed on November 02, 2020, 10:29:41 AM
Yup, that's entirely possible. You could also flip NC and GA while giving ME-2 to Trump.

This scenario, however, is a lot likelier and less ridiculous and far-fetched.

I called it exactly to, and this time unlike him I specified that the real result was way easier and more direct to achieve than the latter!

I told you GA would flip before NC did!
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