Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
Posts: 8,401
Political Matrix E: 0.10, S: 0.06
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« on: November 02, 2020, 06:22:16 AM » |
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Interesting that even in a low-turnout scenario, Biden has been able to hold at or above 50% in three of the last four polls. By the same token, Trump has been unable to poll above 47% in three of the last four polls.
Low Turnout Model:
November
Biden 50% Trump 45%
Early October
Biden 53% Trump 45%
Late August
Biden 48% Trump 47%
Mid-July
Biden 51% Trump 44%
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In a high-turnout model, Biden has held at or above 49-percent in four of the last four polls. Trump's high of 46% came in the late-August edition.
In a normal-turnout model, Biden has also held at or above 49-percent in four of the last four polls. Trump has been unable to poll above 45% in this scenario.
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