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February 25, 2021, 02:03:11 AM
Talk Elections
Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
2020 U.S. Presidential Election
2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
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PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)
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Topic: PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5) (Read 1621 times)
Panda Express
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,559
PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)
«
on:
November 02, 2020, 06:00:35 AM »
«
edited:
November 02, 2020, 06:07:35 AM
by
Panda Express »
Biden: 50%
Trump: 45%
source
High-turnout model makes Biden's lead grow to 7 (51-44). Low-turnout keeps it at 5.
Logged
wbrocks67
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 8,472
Re: PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)
«
Reply #1 on:
November 02, 2020, 06:02:45 AM »
It's 50-45 in RV and low turnout
51-44 in high turnout scenario
The 51-44 herding is real
Logged
wbrocks67
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 8,472
Re: PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)
«
Reply #2 on:
November 02, 2020, 06:04:58 AM »
Honestly, I would just ignore the “swing counties” margin. It has swung wildly in their last 3 polls.
August: Trump 46, Biden 44
September: Biden 53, Trump 42
Now: Trump 49, Biden 45
This is also on par with Monmouth swinging wildly as well. They had Biden up double digits, then Biden +4, then Biden double digits, then Biden +5/7.
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Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
Posts: 4,369
Re: PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)
«
Reply #3 on:
November 02, 2020, 06:06:49 AM »
Trump is so done.
Logged
VAR
VARepublican
YaBB God
Posts: 4,757
Political Matrix
E: 0.90, S: -1.57
Re: PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)
«
Reply #4 on:
November 02, 2020, 06:07:32 AM »
Quote from: VARepublican on October 31, 2020, 08:31:38 AM
Here’s how Trump can still win:
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 5,023
Political Matrix
E: 0.12, S: 0.10
Re: PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)
«
Reply #5 on:
November 02, 2020, 06:22:16 AM »
Interesting that even in a low-turnout scenario, Biden has been able to hold at or above 50% in three of the last four polls. By the same token, Trump has been unable to poll above 47% in three of the last four polls.
Low Turnout Model:
November
Biden 50%
Trump 45%
Early October
Biden 53%
Trump 45%
Late August
Biden 48%
Trump 47%
Mid-July
Biden 51%
Trump 44%
---
In a high-turnout model, Biden has held at or above 49-percent in four of the last four polls.
Trump's high of 46% came in the late-August edition.
In a normal-turnout model, Biden has also held at or above 49-percent in four of the last four polls. Trump has been unable to poll above 45% in this scenario.
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Buzz
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,038
Re: PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)
«
Reply #6 on:
November 02, 2020, 06:23:25 AM »
Close enough for a possible miracle
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Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
Posts: 23,185
Re: PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)
«
Reply #7 on:
November 02, 2020, 06:25:35 AM »
BTW, has Monmouth ever explained what their high/low turnout models actually mean?
Is there a definitive number of votes cast above which they use the former and below the latter?
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 6,805
Re: PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)
«
Reply #8 on:
November 02, 2020, 06:50:36 AM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on November 02, 2020, 06:25:35 AM
BTW, has Monmouth ever explained what their high/low turnout models actually mean?
Is there a definitive number of votes cast above which they use the former and below the latter?
Higher/lower turnout than 2016 is about the extent to which the meanings of those models have been specified.
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BlueSwan
blueswan
YaBB God
Posts: 4,682
Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -7.30
Re: PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)
«
Reply #9 on:
November 02, 2020, 06:52:33 AM »
Quote from: Buzz on November 02, 2020, 06:23:25 AM
Close enough for a possible miracle
Absolutely true. Especially with the aid of VBM shenanigans.
But still. This looks solid for Biden.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 6,805
Re: PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)
«
Reply #10 on:
November 02, 2020, 06:54:23 AM »
Oct 28-Nov 1
502 registered/likely voters
MoE: 4.4%
Changes with Sep 30-Oct 4
Registered Voters
Biden 50% (-4)
Trump 45% (+3)
Jorgensen 1% (n/c)
No one 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
Other candidate 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
Undecided 4% (+2)
Likely voters - high Turnout
Biden 51% (-3)
Trump 44% (+1)
Likely voters - low Turnout
Biden 50% (-3)
Trump 45% (n/c)
Logged
wbrocks67
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 8,472
Re: PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)
«
Reply #11 on:
November 02, 2020, 06:55:14 AM »
It's interesting bc usually PA starts off well for Dems and then the number goes down and down as cities/suburbs report first and rurals come in later. This year will be different with Reps doing well out of the gate but Dems increasing. But Philly + the suburbs seem well equipped for counting (relatively) fast so the totals shouldn't be lopsided for too long
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ElectionObserver
Newbie
Posts: 12
Re: PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)
«
Reply #12 on:
November 02, 2020, 08:20:25 AM »
Nice poll for Biden.
All of the top pollsters in PA have given him an above MOE lead in their final polls.
Quote from: wbrocks67 on November 02, 2020, 06:55:14 AM
It's interesting bc usually PA starts off well for Dems and then the number goes down and down as cities/suburbs report first and rurals come in later. This year will be different with Reps doing well out of the gate but Dems increasing. But Philly + the suburbs seem well equipped for counting (relatively) fast so the totals shouldn't be lopsided for too long
Are we sure about that?
Philadelphia/ its suburban counties and a lot of urban counties will start counting mail ballots at 7am on election day and not stop counting until they're done. Many rural counties won't even start counting mail ballots until the 4th.
Surely that will give a boost to Biden when the first results are reported.
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MillennialModerate
MillennialMAModerate
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,522
Re: PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)
«
Reply #13 on:
November 02, 2020, 08:29:21 AM »
Just close enough to keep worries going. But just ahead enough to prevent total panic.
I’d give Biden better than 50/50 to win PA but not a ton beyond that
Monmouth is pretty reliable though so we’ll see
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One Term Floridian
swamiG
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,474
Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: 3.13
Re: PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)
«
Reply #14 on:
November 02, 2020, 08:33:40 AM »
Quote from: MillennialModerate on November 02, 2020, 08:29:21 AM
Just close enough to keep worries going. But just ahead enough to prevent total panic.
I’d give Biden better than 50/50 to win PA but not a ton beyond that
Monmouth is pretty reliable though so we’ll see
Biden definitely has far better odds than 50/50. I’d say about 80/20 odds to win PA
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Russian Bear
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,199
Re: PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)
«
Reply #15 on:
November 02, 2020, 08:36:28 AM »
The polls in 2016 were wrong by 2-3 points nationally and 4-6 in PA and other Midwestern States. Trump needs them to be 2 points more wrongly than in 2016, despite fewer undecided/other party voters. Unlikely, but not implausible. The world needs the miracle to happen
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wbrocks67
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 8,472
Re: PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)
«
Reply #16 on:
November 02, 2020, 08:56:48 AM »
Quote from: Russian Bear on November 02, 2020, 08:36:28 AM
The polls in 2016 were wrong by 2-3 points nationally and 4-6 in PA and other Midwestern States. Trump needs them to be 2 points more wrongly than in 2016, despite fewer undecided/other party voters. Unlikely, but not implausible. The world needs the miracle to happen
Polls also underestimated Bob Casey in PA in 2018
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 6,805
Re: PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)
«
Reply #17 on:
November 02, 2020, 09:09:16 AM »
Quote from: Russian Bear on November 02, 2020, 08:36:28 AM
The polls in 2016 were wrong by 2-3 points nationally and 4-6 in PA and other Midwestern States. Trump needs them to be 2 points more wrongly than in 2016, despite fewer undecided/other party voters. Unlikely, but not implausible. The world needs the miracle to happen
There are two factors making the leads here more sustainable besides polling firms have largely corrected their education weighting errors:
- Being wrong about a 4-6% margin is much easier to do when there's a higher number of undecided voters, but Biden is already around 50%, so it's not there's nearly as much uncertainty
- Loads of people have already voted meaning Trump actually needs there to be a disproportionately large late swing
Logged
YE
Moderator
Atlas Icon
Posts: 12,242
Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52
Re: PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)
«
Reply #18 on:
November 02, 2020, 09:10:45 AM »
Quote from: MillennialModerate on November 02, 2020, 08:29:21 AM
Just close enough to keep worries going. But just ahead enough to prevent total panic.
I’d give Biden better than 50/50 to win PA but not a ton beyond that
Monmouth is pretty reliable though so we’ll see
So there's a "not a ton beyond 50/50" chance that the polls are off by 5-7 points. By that logic, Biden has a "not a ton beyond 50/50" chance of winning Montana and Alaska. For someone who has shouted for months that GA isn't happening due to muh inelasticity despite very close polling there where Biden now seems to have the edge, this is hypocritical.
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redjohn
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,525
Political Matrix
E: -7.03, S: -6.17
Re: PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)
«
Reply #19 on:
November 02, 2020, 09:12:36 AM »
The tipping-point state is likely D, and let's be honest, if Trump were up 7 here in the final poll (and consistently led by 5+) we would rate PA as safe R.
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Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
Posts: 15,173
Re: PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)
«
Reply #20 on:
November 02, 2020, 09:13:10 AM »
Quote from: Russian Bear on November 02, 2020, 08:36:28 AM
The polls in 2016 were wrong by 2-3 points nationally and 4-6 in PA and other Midwestern States. Trump needs them to be 2 points more wrongly than in 2016, despite fewer undecided/other party voters. Unlikely, but not implausible. The world needs the miracle to happen
Russia, China and other countries that want to harm this country certainly want four more years of Trump. That much is true. Get the hell out of here you russian troll.
Logged
Bootes Void
iamaganster123
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,368
Re: PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)
«
Reply #21 on:
November 02, 2020, 09:29:10 AM »
#herding
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
Atlas Legend
Posts: 48,115
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
Re: PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)
«
Reply #22 on:
November 02, 2020, 09:31:03 AM »
Every state that voted D in 2018, are shifting pre 2014 levels when Debate flipping D. IA which was of the first states to flip R is flipping back to Tom Harkin levels of D success
Ernst is sitting in Tom Harkins seat whom defended Bill Clinton in Lewinsky
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Russian Bear
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,199
Re: PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)
«
Reply #23 on:
November 02, 2020, 09:42:48 AM »
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on November 02, 2020, 09:09:16 AM
Quote from: Russian Bear on November 02, 2020, 08:36:28 AM
The polls in 2016 were wrong by 2-3 points nationally and 4-6 in PA and other Midwestern States. Trump needs them to be 2 points more wrongly than in 2016, despite fewer undecided/other party voters. Unlikely, but not implausible. The world needs the miracle to happen
There are two factors making the leads here more sustainable besides polling firms have largely corrected their education weighting errors:
- Being wrong about a 4-6% margin is much easier to do when there's a higher number of undecided voters, but Biden is already around 50%, so it's not there's nearly as much uncertainty
Yeah, it is what I said. But new errors might arise. Obviously, not necessary in Trump direction. Trump's narrow win, perhaps, is as likely as Biden 12+% landslide. Unlikely, but not implausible.
Quote
- Loads of people have already voted meaning Trump actually needs there to be a disproportionately large late swing
If polls are right. If polls are wrong as 2016 + 2%, Trump won't need any swings.
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AGA
YaBB God
Posts: 3,576
Political Matrix
E: 0.06, S: -6.87
Re: PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)
«
Reply #24 on:
November 02, 2020, 01:02:17 PM »
Is it just me or do the crosstabs for whites with and without a college degree make it seem that Biden should be up by more than 7?
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