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December 04, 2020, 11:46:53 PM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE, ON Progressive)
  PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)
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Author Topic: PA-Monmouth: Biden PUMMELS Trump in Pennsylvania (+5)  (Read 1380 times)
Panda Express
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« on: November 02, 2020, 06:00:35 AM »
« edited: November 02, 2020, 06:07:35 AM by Panda Express »

Biden: 50%
Trump: 45%


source

High-turnout model makes Biden's lead grow to 7 (51-44). Low-turnout keeps it at 5.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2020, 06:02:45 AM »

It's 50-45 in RV and low turnout

51-44 in high turnout scenario

The 51-44 herding is real
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2020, 06:04:58 AM »

Honestly, I would just ignore the “swing counties” margin. It has swung wildly in their last 3 polls.

August: Trump 46, Biden 44
September: Biden 53, Trump 42
Now: Trump 49, Biden 45


This is also on par with Monmouth swinging wildly as well. They had Biden up double digits, then Biden +4, then Biden double digits, then Biden +5/7.
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Skye
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2020, 06:06:49 AM »

Trump is so done.
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#SaveTheSenate
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2020, 06:07:32 AM »

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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2020, 06:22:16 AM »

Interesting that even in a low-turnout scenario, Biden has been able to hold at or above 50% in three of the last four polls.  By the same token, Trump has been unable to poll above 47% in three of the last four polls.

Low Turnout Model:

November

Biden 50%
Trump 45%

Early October

Biden 53%
Trump 45%

Late August

Biden 48%
Trump 47%

Mid-July

Biden 51%
Trump 44%

---

In a high-turnout model, Biden has held at or above 49-percent in four of the last four polls.
Trump's high of 46% came in the late-August edition.  

In a normal-turnout model, Biden has also held at or above 49-percent in four of the last four polls. Trump has been unable to poll above 45% in this scenario. 
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Buzz
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2020, 06:23:25 AM »

Close enough for a possible miracle
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2020, 06:25:35 AM »

BTW, has Monmouth ever explained what their high/low turnout models actually mean?
Is there a definitive number of votes cast above which they use the former and below the latter?
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2020, 06:50:36 AM »

BTW, has Monmouth ever explained what their high/low turnout models actually mean?
Is there a definitive number of votes cast above which they use the former and below the latter?

Higher/lower turnout than 2016 is about the extent to which the meanings of those models have been specified.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2020, 06:52:33 AM »

Close enough for a possible miracle
Absolutely true. Especially with the aid of VBM shenanigans.

But still. This looks solid for Biden.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2020, 06:54:23 AM »

Oct 28-Nov 1
502 registered/likely voters
MoE: 4.4%
Changes with Sep 30-Oct 4

Registered Voters
Biden 50% (-4)
Trump 45% (+3)
Jorgensen 1% (n/c)
No one 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
Other candidate 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
Undecided 4% (+2)

Likely voters - high Turnout
Biden 51% (-3)
Trump 44% (+1)

Likely voters - low Turnout
Biden 50% (-3)
Trump 45% (n/c)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2020, 06:55:14 AM »

It's interesting bc usually PA starts off well for Dems and then the number goes down and down as cities/suburbs report first and rurals come in later. This year will be different with Reps doing well out of the gate but Dems increasing. But Philly + the suburbs seem well equipped for counting (relatively) fast so the totals shouldn't be lopsided for too long
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ElectionObserver
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2020, 08:20:25 AM »

Nice poll for Biden.
All of the top pollsters in PA have given him an above MOE lead in their final polls.

It's interesting bc usually PA starts off well for Dems and then the number goes down and down as cities/suburbs report first and rurals come in later. This year will be different with Reps doing well out of the gate but Dems increasing. But Philly + the suburbs seem well equipped for counting (relatively) fast so the totals shouldn't be lopsided for too long

Are we sure about that?

Philadelphia/ its suburban counties and a lot of urban counties will start counting mail ballots at 7am on election day and not stop counting until they're done. Many rural counties won't even start counting mail ballots until the 4th.
Surely that will give a boost to Biden when the first results are reported.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2020, 08:29:21 AM »

Just close enough to keep worries going. But just ahead enough to prevent total panic.

I’d give Biden better than 50/50 to win PA but not a ton beyond that

Monmouth is pretty reliable though so we’ll see
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One Term Floridian
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« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2020, 08:33:40 AM »

Just close enough to keep worries going. But just ahead enough to prevent total panic.

I’d give Biden better than 50/50 to win PA but not a ton beyond that

Monmouth is pretty reliable though so we’ll see

Biden definitely has far better odds than 50/50. I’d say about 80/20 odds to win PA
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Russian Bear
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« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2020, 08:36:28 AM »

The polls in 2016 were wrong by 2-3 points nationally and 4-6 in PA and other Midwestern States. Trump needs them to be 2 points more wrongly than in 2016, despite fewer undecided/other party voters. Unlikely, but not implausible. The world needs the miracle to happen  Devil
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2020, 08:56:48 AM »

The polls in 2016 were wrong by 2-3 points nationally and 4-6 in PA and other Midwestern States. Trump needs them to be 2 points more wrongly than in 2016, despite fewer undecided/other party voters. Unlikely, but not implausible. The world needs the miracle to happen  Devil

Polls also underestimated Bob Casey in PA in 2018 Smiley
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2020, 09:09:16 AM »

The polls in 2016 were wrong by 2-3 points nationally and 4-6 in PA and other Midwestern States. Trump needs them to be 2 points more wrongly than in 2016, despite fewer undecided/other party voters. Unlikely, but not implausible. The world needs the miracle to happen  Devil

There are two factors making the leads here more sustainable besides polling firms have largely corrected their education weighting errors:
 - Being wrong about a 4-6% margin is much easier to do when there's a higher number of undecided voters, but Biden is already around 50%, so it's not there's nearly as much uncertainty
 - Loads of people have already voted meaning Trump actually needs there to be a disproportionately large late swing
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YE
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« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2020, 09:10:45 AM »

Just close enough to keep worries going. But just ahead enough to prevent total panic.

I’d give Biden better than 50/50 to win PA but not a ton beyond that

Monmouth is pretty reliable though so we’ll see

So there's a "not a ton beyond 50/50" chance that the polls are off by 5-7 points. By that logic, Biden has a "not a ton beyond 50/50" chance of winning Montana and Alaska. For someone who has shouted for months that GA isn't happening due to muh inelasticity despite very close polling there where Biden now seems to have the edge, this is hypocritical.
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Beida
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« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2020, 09:12:36 AM »

The tipping-point state is likely D, and let's be honest, if Trump were up 7 here in the final poll (and consistently led by 5+) we would rate PA as safe R.
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Sbane
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« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2020, 09:13:10 AM »

The polls in 2016 were wrong by 2-3 points nationally and 4-6 in PA and other Midwestern States. Trump needs them to be 2 points more wrongly than in 2016, despite fewer undecided/other party voters. Unlikely, but not implausible. The world needs the miracle to happen  Devil

Russia, China and other countries that want to harm this country certainly want four more years of Trump. That much is true. Get the hell out of here you russian troll.
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Bootes Void
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« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2020, 09:29:10 AM »

#herding
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #22 on: November 02, 2020, 09:31:03 AM »

Every state that voted D in 2018, are shifting pre 2014 levels when Debate flipping D. IA which was of the first states to flip R is flipping back to Tom Harkin levels of D success

Ernst is sitting in Tom Harkins seat whom defended Bill Clinton in Lewinsky
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Russian Bear
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« Reply #23 on: November 02, 2020, 09:42:48 AM »

The polls in 2016 were wrong by 2-3 points nationally and 4-6 in PA and other Midwestern States. Trump needs them to be 2 points more wrongly than in 2016, despite fewer undecided/other party voters. Unlikely, but not implausible. The world needs the miracle to happen  Devil

There are two factors making the leads here more sustainable besides polling firms have largely corrected their education weighting errors:
 - Being wrong about a 4-6% margin is much easier to do when there's a higher number of undecided voters, but Biden is already around 50%, so it's not there's nearly as much uncertainty
Yeah, it is what I said. But new errors might arise. Obviously, not necessary in Trump direction. Trump's narrow win, perhaps, is as likely as Biden 12+% landslide. Unlikely, but not implausible.

Quote
- Loads of people have already voted meaning Trump actually needs there to be a disproportionately large late swing
If polls are right. If polls are wrong as 2016 + 2%, Trump won't need any swings.
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AGA
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« Reply #24 on: November 02, 2020, 01:02:17 PM »

Is it just me or do the crosstabs for whites with and without a college degree make it seem that Biden should be up by more than 7?
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