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December 03, 2020, 01:30:00 AM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE, ON Progressive)
  Morning Consult: Biden leads in most Swing States		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Morning Consult: Biden leads in most Swing States  (Read 932 times)
Skye
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« on: November 02, 2020, 05:25:15 AM »


https://morningconsult.com/form/2020-u-s-election-tracker/#section-5
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2020, 05:27:33 AM »
Yeah, these look really good for Biden. Nice sample sizes as well.
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bilaps
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2020, 05:32:55 AM »
It's nonsensical. Florida 4pts to the left of AZ, WI 16 pts to the left of OH, PA 12 pts to the left of OH, too much
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philly09
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2020, 05:34:13 AM »
Now we know why Trump is lashing out at PA.

Another TX tie, and wow at those FL numbers.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2020, 06:02:01 AM »
Quote from: bilaps on November 02, 2020, 05:32:55 AM
It's nonsensical. Florida 4pts to the left of AZ, WI 16 pts to the left of OH, PA 12 pts to the left of OH, too much

well their AZ samples have been a bit wonky specifically. their last poll had Trump +2 I believe, and before that it was like Biden +4.
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bilaps
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2020, 06:09:39 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on November 02, 2020, 06:02:01 AM
Quote from: bilaps on November 02, 2020, 05:32:55 AM
It's nonsensical. Florida 4pts to the left of AZ, WI 16 pts to the left of OH, PA 12 pts to the left of OH, too much

well their AZ samples have been a bit wonky specifically. their last poll had Trump +2 I believe, and before that it was like Biden +4.

well, sorry but I am more likely to beleive that AZ is Biden +2 than FL is Biden +6
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Figueira
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2020, 06:16:10 AM »
Throw them into the average!
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Zache
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2020, 06:17:53 AM »
Another double-digit WI lead...
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2020, 06:25:55 AM »
It appears the late breaking momentum for Dems in Georgia is real...
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Rafe
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2020, 06:26:04 AM »
How do you fix a broken Rust Belt? Spray it with WD-46.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2020, 06:27:24 AM »
Lol, when IN, MO, and SC are “swing states”
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2020, 07:05:07 AM »
Changes with Oct 11-20

AZ
Biden 48% (+1)
Trump 46% (-2)

CO
Biden 54% (-1)
Trump 41% (+2)

FL
Biden 52% (-1)
Trump 45% (n/c)

GA
Biden 49% (+1)
Trump 46% (-2)

MI
Biden 52% (n/c)
Trump 45% (+1)

MN
Biden 52% (+1)
Trump 44% (+2)

NC
Biden 49% (-1)
Trump 48% (+1)

OH
Trump 49% (n/c)
Biden 47% (n/c)

PA
Biden 52% (n/c)
Trump 43% (n/c)

SC
Trump 51% (n/c)
Biden 45% (-1)

TX
Biden 48% (n/c)
Trump 48% (+1)

WI
Biden 54% (n/c)
Trump 41% (-2)
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kireev
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2020, 08:56:21 AM »

On average almost 8 point swing from 2016, which is closer a 10% national lead...
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Figueira
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2020, 08:58:08 AM »

Not far outside what we've been seeing.
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AGA
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« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2020, 12:43:19 AM »
Leaked image of Morning Consult HQ:
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