VA - Data for Progress: Biden +11%

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm old enough to remember when it was impossible for Democrats to win VA by double digits at the presidential level because of muh high Republican floor/inelasticity/overwhelmingly R rurals somehow overpowering NoVA.

It was clearly true at the time. But, Virginia changed. Virginia is very, very likely to go for Biden by double digits. 2020 Virginia.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm old enough to remember when it was impossible for Democrats to win VA by double digits at the presidential level because of muh high Republican floor/inelasticity/overwhelmingly R rurals somehow overpowering NoVA.

It was clearly true at the time. But, Virginia changed. Virginia is very, very likely to go for Biden by double digits. 2020 Virginia.

A certain hackish Atlas user made those exact same arguments to me in 2019...

Well, post-2017 I can't see any validity in those arguments... at all.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm old enough to remember when it was impossible for Democrats to win VA by double digits at the presidential level because of muh high Republican floor/inelasticity/overwhelmingly R rurals somehow overpowering NoVA.

It was clearly true at the time. But, Virginia changed. Virginia is very, very likely to go for Biden by double digits. 2020 Virginia.

John Kerry could have won Virginia if he had invested the resources. It was there in 2004.

I don't think so. Bush was too strong in the South and the Obama coalition types were yet to be viable voters.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm old enough to remember when it was impossible for Democrats to win VA by double digits at the presidential level because of muh high Republican floor/inelasticity/overwhelmingly R rurals somehow overpowering NoVA.

It was clearly true at the time. But, Virginia changed. Virginia is very, very likely to go for Biden by double digits. 2020 Virginia.

John Kerry could have won Virginia if he had invested the resources. It was there in 2004.

I don't think so. Bush was too strong in the South and the Obama coalition types were yet to be viable voters.

I always figured that Kerry would flip VA the way Bush flipped WV. Bill Clinton didn't lose VA by that much in 1996.

It's not a straightforward parallel. Probably, Dems were still losing more voters than Rs did in VA till the 2000s, if we are looking at generational trends driven by elderly voters. And generational trends of that kind were the biggest reason WV flipped.